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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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39 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Boy that first band was ultra disappointing. Was under bright yellows for easily over 30 minutes and I still have predominantly rain. Makes zero sense with all kinds of sleet and snow reports to my south and west. I hope that’s not a bad omen for peeps further north. Temp went from 39 to 35 however since that band came through. Really am going to need radar to fill in or the backend to over perform. 

2 things... aren’t areas to your SW higher elevation? They typically flip before you if I’m not mistaken. We don’t have that type of climo here further up north.

 

Also... this radar is pretty spot on it appears. If you don’t flip to snow within 30 mins, I’d be shocked. You’re literally in a rain bubble. My buddy in Hollins right outside Roanoke city limits is seeing heavy snow  

73853861-6086-4CB1-810E-F80D8A957213.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Chillll my dude. Returns literally just hit your area. It’ll be precipitating within the hour. Yes, climo says you won’t fair as well as Baltimore, but a decent # of models show some good snow into your area. 
 

enjoy. 

Lived here 35 years and well acquainted with this climo--my disappointment comment was wrt the future cast for mostly rain vs. the 3-6 forecast and WSW.  It seems like it's been a tough year for forecasting.  We might sneak in a couple inches here, we'll see, all good if we do, if we don't it will be a typical outcome for here.   Looks like some more and maybe better chances later in the month too.

Good luck.

Temp now 43.3.

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

2 things... aren’t areas to your SW higher elevation? They typically flip before you if I’m not mistaken. We don’t have that type of climo here further up north.

 

Also... this radar is pretty spot on it appears. If you don’t flip to snow within 30 mins, I’d be shocked. You’re literally in a rain bubble. My buddy in Hollins right outside Roanoke city limits is seeing heavy snow  

73853861-6086-4CB1-810E-F80D8A957213.jpeg

It finally flipped to predominantly snow but it still doesn’t want to get its act together just yet. I’m by the S in Salem banked up against a mountain. Got about 1300ft of elevation over here. Seeing that ridiculous band over by Nashville makes me feel better and the fact of what you alluded to with the radar more or less congealing to my southwest. I just hope the temps cooperate up your way and to my north. Probably wasted .15-.20 qpf already. Temp all the way down to 34.3 from 39.9 just a couple hours ago.

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Don’t think westward extend of the precip will be a problem for our area. Precip spans from Ohio to the Atlantic Ocean and heading NNE. Looks like a nice wall of precip is headed our way. Nice batch of precip out west in WV. Now we hope for that magic to happen at 700mb as that SLP cranks up and passes our latitude 

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Pazzo is in downtown hell.  It's probably 72 there now. 

You’re right. Fall line actually isn’t far very NW of either metro. Baltimore appears like it could flip over ever so slightly earlier but not by much once DC gets in on that heavy precip in VA

0289CCBD-8505-477C-B8B9-89632F3F705F.jpeg

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