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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

These modeled depth maps don't seem to reflect the weather... weather.us has them for a number of models as well and they don't often correlate with the actual snowfall conditions.   Then they 'update' themselves after a storm and they make more sense.

Lol thats current actual depth

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5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

These modeled depth maps don't seem to reflect the weather... weather.us has them for a number of models as well and they don't often correlate with the actual snowfall conditions.   Then they 'update' themselves after a storm and they make more sense.

Looks about right for here around a foot. I'm sure some folks northeast of Hartford will disagree with 4-6 assessment :whistle:

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol thats current actual depth

It’s actually still “modeled”. Granted they use remote sensing and a few actual obs from coops to try and make it as accurate as possible, but at the end of the day, it is still a model that’s producing that.

They are pretty good, but I’ve seen them struggle sometimes...esp late in the season. 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol thats current actual depth

Ugh - yup my bad!  I looked at 2/7 date but didn't look at the time. (00:00 UTC is right now lol).   Grrr...  but my comment still applies to the "snow depth" model maps overall.  I've never found them to be as accurate as the forecasted snowfall maps when you compare them side by side.  I know the depth models try to compensate for compression and melting if applicable...

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s actually still “modeled”. Granted they use remote sensing and a few actual obs from coops to try and make it as accurate as possible, but at the end of the day, it is still a model that’s producing that.

They are pretty good, but I’ve seen them struggle sometimes...esp late in the season. 

The actual depth charts have so broad a range. The modeled ones use Cocorahs too

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

A subtle but distinct slowimg of start and end time on today’s guidance 

Jerry, that shortwave will be phasing when it reaches the benchmark region.  The surface low will be going through its best intensification process in that moment.  It will seem like a slow down, and all the HIRES and globals are all snow for the Cape.  ACK is a different story.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Jerry, that shortwave will be phasing when it reaches the benchmark region.  The surface low will be going through its best intensification process in that moment.  It will seem like a slow down, and all the HIRES and globals are all snow for the Cape.  ACK is a different story.

Phasing what?  Itself?

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A subtle but distinct slowimg of start and end time on today’s guidance 

Agreed. Up at our latitude we may be waiting until almost lunchtime to start and it ends maybe a quarter or two into the super bowl. 

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Jerry, that shortwave will be phasing when it reaches the benchmark region.  The surface low will be going through its best intensification process in that moment.  It will seem like a slow down, and all the HIRES and globals are all snow for the Cape.  ACK is a different story.

You may start as a mix, but should go over to snow fairly quickly. It’s cold aloft. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

You may start as a mix, but should go over to snow fairly quickly. It’s cold aloft. 

Yeah and the storm is very dynamic and is going through its best intensification phase at the same time its passing to our southeast and east.  I was told, that in order to get the best bands to develop, you want to be on the northwest side of the surface low and H7 low tracks as the surface low is intensifying, preferably bombing out!

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