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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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10 minutes ago, paweather said:

no where near suppressed. In fact the trending is the opposite. 

I don't think we'll miss this watching it all go south of us. 

However, the best forcing initially is "trending" south, at least on the models. The first burst of snow associated with the frontogenesis is actually targeting DC south. We still snow but not at the rate it will further south...initially. We end up with more as we snow longer and hopefully with less mix, but he's not completely wrong in that aspect. 

It's also very possible that the thumpiest of the initial thump moves back north as well.  

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't think we'll miss this watching it all go south of us. 

However, the best forcing initially is "trending" south, at least on the models. The first burst of snow associated with the frontogenesis is actually targeting DC south. We still snow but not at the rate it will further south...initially. We end up with more as we snow longer and hopefully with less mix, but he's not completely wrong in that aspect. 

It's also very possible that the thumpiest of the initial thump moves back north as well.  

I think we are getting into such minor details. Every model today outside of the NAM was all snow for us for the most part. We do get into heavier bands on some models and will likely. EURO snows until Friday morning. 6-8" 8-10" I think we would all be happy. I think it is all minor now in the details. Horst calling for 5-10". 

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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

I think we are getting into such minor details. Every model today outside of the NAM was all snow for us for the most part. We do get into heavier bands on some models and will likely. EURO snows until Friday morning. 6-8" 8-10" I think we would all be happy. I think it is all minor now in the details. Horst calling for 5-10". 

Agree with this and PSU pointed out that the trend today is south with the big thump but also trending to more coastal interaction for us.  It’s been a net positive.  We don’t flirt as closely with the sleet line and get in on some coastal action.  

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2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Agree with this and PSU pointed out that the trend today is south with the big thump but also trending to more coastal interaction for us.  It’s been a net positive.  We don’t flirt as closely with the sleet line and get in on some coastal action.  

Thanks, this is exactly what I was trying to say but failed. Lousy trainer I am...

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CTP weighs in.......

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3:00pm update for the Thurs/Fri storm:
Models are shifting the track of the low pressure more south and
towards the coast than past runs. From this, the axis of
heaviest QPF in theory will shift southeast. We ever so slightly
bumped down totals in the NW and bumped up totals in the
southeast following the recent trend in a more southerly Miller
A type track. This would favor more snow in our South/Southeast
counties, but there is still time for the track to shift around.
Models have been trending colder as well, but based on how the
models initially showed this past storm colder and it ended up
be very warm, I`m skeptical that this will be an all snow event.
Soundings show a warm nose poking up into the Lower Susquehanna
Thursday night, so included the chance of freezing rain and
sleet for overnight TThursday. Again some uncertainty exists in
how far north and west this wintry mix will go, but if the cold
trend stays the mix may be confined to just our southeast
counties. Confidence is increasing in an impactful winter storm
occurring before sunrise Thursday and continuing until Friday
morning, with lingering light snow showers in the mountains
Friday afternoon.
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