NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 then all snow at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Relax, that’s just until the precipitation picks up in intensity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: mixing issues in nj on 18Z NAM That’s not mixing issues that’s evaporational cooling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Then at 45 low is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: Relax, that’s just until the precipitation picks up in intensity Agree Big hit for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It’s pretty clear the issue with the NAM at the onset is the boundary layer, as opposed to the mid levels. The R/S line perfectly straddles the coastline. Once the BL cools with heavy precip, it’d be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 still heavy precip at F048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: then all snow at 42 Looks good for us interior folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 one more trend nw and we're sleeting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexj7 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Here we go again, let's hope the trend stops now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM is very juiced 1 inch qpf for nyc/li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: one more trend nw and we're sleeting Respectfully disagree, don’t think this is much of a sleetfest. Boundary layer is gonna be the problem if anything Seems more of a rain or snow deal to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Mt. Holly just issued Winter Storm Watches for over 5 inches in most of NJ WSW from KPHI (cod.edu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 6-12 inches region wide, forum wide sounds perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Winter Storm Watch up for PHL zones Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex and south for 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Respectfully disagree, don’t think this is much of a sleetfest. Boundary layer is gonna be the problem if anything Seems more of a rain or snow deal to me Agree 850s are plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not worried about nyc mixing when the heavy snow axis still extends well to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexj7 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3k Nam doesn't look as good for NYC. Throws 14" over Morris county but 7" over NYC due to mixing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Most TV Mets are just lousy. They were way underdone east of the city on the last storm until the morning of and even then we were on the top end of the ranges if not higher. Upton was generally overdone but was better. There are some exceptions like Craig Allen but not many. I’m sure by 5pm those will be upped and we might be under a watch anyway. The media forecasts often seem behind the curve in my opinion. That or they just go conservative because they don't want to be accused of needlessly hyping a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexj7 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, alexj7 said: Thats a flag for mixing but unreliable model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, alexj7 said: Will the heaviest snow bands really get that far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM is still good for the coast but you definitely don't want it amped anymore without it becoming an inland focused event and a chunk of it being rain or a dryslot from the city east. The mid level lows all trended about 50 miles NW from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NAM is still good for the coast but you definitely don't want it amped anymore without it becoming an inland focused event and a chunk of it being rain or a dryslot from the city east. The mid level lows all trended about 50 miles NW from last run. Its also the most amped model we have right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @Ericjcrash @snywx @crossbowftw3 Deleware, Sullivan and orange counties represented here; 18z nam way NW Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its also the most amped model we have right now it's been leading the way the whole time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WSW issued now for parts of OKX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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