Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,509
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics.  The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”  

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

GUYS!!!!     I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.    

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half a

Posted Images

Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm all for giving credit where its due, but I just feel like that is dumb 4 days out in a fairly fluid situation.

NYC gets creamed, and Boston gets 5", I'll be the first to give you credit.

I will reiterate.. NYC could get severely shafted . Too far southwest for firehose snows and WAA misses . Would not want to live there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm all for giving credit where its due, but I just feel like that is dumb 4 days out in a fairly fluid situation.

NYC gets creamed, and Boston gets 5", I'll be the first to give you credit.

That won’t happen.  BOS is probably fine but I think there’s a decent chance NYC gets more than ORH or BDL and certainly any place west of ORH in MA.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I will reiterate.. NYC could get severely shafted . Too far southwest for firehose snows and WAA misses . Would not want to live there.

I am more open minded with this one than I normally am with Miller Bs because the S stream is involved and  we see that LBSW. All bets are off with that.

I can't stand when the mid atl gets crushed because the question that immediately follows is how will that limit SNE snow.....bc 9.9/ ten times it will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. possible...I agree.

The occluding factor is what makes this thing tricky on accumulation.  The GFS probably occludes it too quickly while I felt the GGEM didn’t do it fast enough.  This led to stupidly high snow totals near NYC on the GGEM given it’s evolution.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am more open minded with this one than I normally am with Miller Bs because the S stream is involved and  we see that LBSW. All bets are off with that.

I can't stand when the mid atl gets crushed because the question that immediately follows is how will that limit SNE snow.....bc 9.9/ ten times it will.

 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The occluding factor is what makes this thing tricky on accumulation.  The GFS probably occludes it too quickly while I felt the GGEM didn’t do it fast enough.  This led to stupidly high snow totals near NYC on the GGEM given it’s evolution.  

Same page.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am more open minded with this one than I normally am with Miller Bs because the S stream is involved and  we see that LBSW. All bets are off with that.

I can't stand when the mid atl gets crushed because the question that immediately follows is how will that limit SNE snow.....bc 9.9 out ten times it will.

Nyc area is walking a tightrope. SNE will get snow and probably a good hit,, but farther Sw is dicey

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nyc area is walking a tightrope. SNE will get snow and probably a good hit,, but farther Sw is dicey

I think we are both in the same boat for diff reasons...NYC has shot at the first load, while we do not. We have a shot at the secondary hook-redevelopment, and they do not.

Only high confidence crush is a portion of the mid atl.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The occlusion/LBSW makes what would normally heavily favor SNE a crap shoot.

There’s just been some strange stuff this winter overall.  The December storm had the really bizarre displacement of the 700 low from the center which while the occurrence itself wasn’t unusual the fact it was SO displaced in a system that basically began developing over Tennessee was odd.  This time it seems to occlude unusually fast.  As Tip said, part of that is the setup isn’t great aloft and the ceiling is low on how much it can mature but it seems to be occurring at a faster rate than normal regardless 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

Areas to the south also have the WAA thump going for them, And maybe someone gets a little of both from the developing SLP.

The areas which will get hit by both the WAA and then the main low is really really tiny.  It might be focused mostly near the eastern portion of Mason Dixon line southeast into DE.  Even DCA on many of the models and ensembles gets its snow 80/20 on the WAA/coastal.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
New Hampshire Weather

New Hampshire Weather

Posted
Posted

I would say just sit back and enjoy the snow runs and watch the mid-atlantic snow fans descend into madness as the trends start to favor new england in the last few hours of the storm. Remember last storm? The GFS had the CCB south of Nantucket until a few dozen hours before the storm. The CCB ended up north of Concord NH.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The areas which will get hit by both the WAA and then the main low is really really tiny.  It might be focused mostly near the eastern portion of Mason Dixon line southeast into DE.  Even DCA on many of the models and ensembles gets its snow 80/20 on the WAA/coastal.  

Still the difference of a few more inches to be had, A couple days ago that all transpired further north over a broader area as the low was slowing as it transitioned, But we have other problems aloft upstream that's adding to the chaos up this way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, New Hampshire Weather said:

I would say just sit back and enjoy the snow runs and watch the mid-atlantic snow fans descend into madness as the trends start to favor new england in the last few hours of the storm. Remember last storm? The GFS had the CCB south of Nantucket until a few dozen hours before the storm. The CCB ended up north of Concord NH.

Difference is that was a track issue. This is track and occlusion...my concern is more the latter.

The Dec system was occluding, albeit at a much slower rate because it had better SW mechanics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I have the dagger in the back emoji on standby.

In all seriousness if the 12Z Euro continues going south you have to think we have big problems.  The 06Z would have basically missed most of my area entirely outside of LI and a decent part of western SNE.  It’s hard for me to see it getting much worse but who knows  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

In all seriousness if the 12Z Euro continues going south you have to think we have big problems.  The 06Z would have basically missed most of my area entirely outside of LI and a decent part of western SNE.  It’s hard for me to see it getting much worse but who knows  

The further south it ends up were asking a lot for a tug back NW that has any siggy consequence up here, An occluded low may bring some lighter snows further north but it would also probably be more for eastern areas to boot

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...