MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Insane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NWS seems to be very concerned about mixing issues. Possible mixing for up to 12 hours Sunday night into Monday. They’re buying the NAM/HRRR hard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, bpjones595 said: NWS seems to be very concerned about mixing issues. Possible mixing for up to 12 hours Sunday night into Monday. They’re buying the NAM/HRRR hard . Where? The shore...sure. Post your location in your profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigBlueBox Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Why does the GFS snowfall output on tropical tidbits look so much different (worse) then the output from the same run on pivotal? Even the r/s line there looks to go further north then the same run on pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Where? The shore...sure. Post your location in your profile.Not sure how to in Tapatalk.... I’m in chads Ford. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, bpjones595 said: Not sure how to in Tapatalk.... I’m in chads Ford. . That doesn’t sound like they’re buying or not buying, but just pointing it out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CMC should be nutty for someone in PA based on B&w maps as we expected. It follows rgem but isn’t always exact, like today’s 12z run where rgem was south and cmc farther N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: That doesn’t sound like they’re buying or not buying, but just pointing it out Anyone N/W of Philly isn't buying it....even Philly may mixed be for a bit but not 12 hours IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Final Para gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Para GFS been a rock near steadfast solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Final Para gfs New king para gfs has barely wavered the last 24 hours. I'm riding that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Don't laugh it's happened: Morgantown had 50" in March 1958 storm! 22 minutes ago, yak said: Man, I’m going to be pissed if Allentown sets the record for eastern PA and I get fringed with 47 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Don't laugh it's happened: Morgantown had 50" in March 1958 storm! And March 58s snow map is very similar throughout New England. It’s a good analog imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CMC says 20-24” for me. Lock it up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Don't laugh it's happened: Morgantown had 50" in March 1958 storm! Gees, I can't even fathom what over 4' of snow would look like. I spent part of my childhood in Erie, so I sorta kinda know what 3-ish feet looks like, but that was like 30 years ago when I was a small child. We used to have to hire a backhoe to dig us out since our driveway was so long, and I remember the snowpiles going almost up to the wires on the telephone poles near the road. That said, I'll be very happy with anything over a foot when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: And March 58s snow map is very similar throughout New England. It’s a good analog imo. That was of course a totally different set up...all elevation driven as about 6 miles NW of me had 50" in Morgantown at 625 ft while only 19" fell 300 feet lower down in Coatesville at 325ft asl.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CMC bullseye is IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 31 inches for Macungie woopie LMAO - I bet we just get a few inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, The Iceman said: New king para gfs has barely wavered the last 24 hours. I'm riding that I swear Bruce may be correct and depending on location he may have underdone the totals. A true weenie in the making... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: CMC bullseye is IMBY #LockItIn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I swear Bruce may be correct and depending on location he may have underdone the totals. A true weenie in the making... Any chance that is Bruce Campbell as in Hail to the King baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Albedoman said: 31 inches for Macungie woopie LMAO - I bet we just get a few inches As in getting that deja vu feeling we did this exact routine the day before in December haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Lol I've seen we've digressed into talking about '58 here. Just take your 16" inches and be happy. .... clearly too many weenies for breakfast. Nothing about this says Hecs, this is modeled as a reasonable Mecs. I dont think the low is deep enough. No wonder these storms always fall short of expectations when the expectations rise of the granddaddy of all PA blizzards-- what do you expect. I think the Para shows a nice solution however I think the gradient will be further south and tighter. Realistically there will be some dry slotting and probably a crust of sleet at some point. Somebody will probably see 20 to 22" out of this but you'd have to be color blind to see 50" on any of these maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Definitely liking the chances of 12-18” here in the LV. However, if the best forcing/frontogenesis slides east, lots of people (including me), will end up very disappointed. We KNOW someone is getting 24”+ from this storm, but unfortunately, we’re not going to have location until this is in progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The thing worth considering here, is that, unlike the *December* storm, this storm is sticking around a long time. Yeah, the event starts within 24 hours. But the actual ramp up where we expect to see the transfer and thus, the bigger totals, isn't until Monday (e.g. 36 hours ish out). I think we could safely predict right now what happens tomorrow. The overrunning precip comes through, gives a widespread several inches, semantics dependent on mesoscale details. Hence, we have 12 hours before we'll be at the point where, in December, the models started making everyone cry (they began that trend sooner though) wrt the actual Nor' Easter component to this storm. I think 10-14" is what I'm going with for the city. Someone in the LV will see north of 2". I don't necessarily buy the pie in the sky 3-4 feet. Mixing is a concern for the corridor, but the transfer should probably limit duration. I think the above comments were right vis a vis the NWS was pointing it out as something to be aware of and consider, not buying or not buying it. It's one of those things to keep an eye on. If that signal sticks around and it starts showing in other models, pay attention. If not, just a good-to-know. Wishing all in this forum good luck the next few days, if you're chasing, staying home etc. May the snow totals be forever in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Any chance that is Bruce Campbell as in Hail to the King baby! No clue which Bruce but his 20" with blizzard warnings posted Mon morning prediction looks damn good right now...Eskin's 7" prediction not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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