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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


LVblizzard
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10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

No more north move so far 12z is my biggest takeaway that had to stop

We’re not out of the woods yet. In the December storm it wasn’t until 24 hours before the start of the storm that the models collectively made their big jump to the north. If we get past 0z tonight and we’re still in the bullseye, though...time to start feeling really, really good.

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1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

We’re not out of the woods yet. In the December storm it wasn’t until 24 hours before the start of the storm that the models collectively made their big jump to the north. If we get past 0z tonight and we’re still in the bullseye, though...time to start feeling really, really good.

Yeah we were squarely in the bullseye of that one as well. I fear the ole saying if it looks to good to be true it probably isnt, but hey maybe this is the year

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1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

How are dews looking? Will we fight virga or is this coming in fast and furious?

Jan 2016 got off to a quick start. I remember hours of virga with some of those 2010 storms. Also PD II if I recall correctly.

No longer fighting confluence or slow transfer it looks more like Jan 2016

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3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

We’re not out of the woods yet. In the December storm it wasn’t until 24 hours before the start of the storm that the models collectively made their big jump to the north. If we get past 0z tonight and we’re still in the bullseye, though...time to start feeling really, really good.

I think either 0z model run or possibly even 06z tomorrow is when I'll jump on the wagon of those higher totals. It's such a long event that it could be snowing before we really lock in the max snowfall area. Been stabbed in the back way too many times over the years. 

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z takeaway briefly....at work. Capture looks likely. Stall likely. Longer duration sits at our BM. HECS potential increasing quickly

I get chills when I read the words “capture” and “stall” when the storm is just 24 hours away from starting.

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM looks a lot like the para GFS hmmm

Also more realistic looking digital snow map and man the kuchera ones are starting to bug me raise expectations through the stratosphere in every storm. 

 

They only tend to verify inside the ccb, as we saw in December with 40 at bgm 

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