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snowman19

February 2021

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the coldest temperature so far this winter in NYC is 14 on 1/29...thats on the high side and high enough that March could have the coldest temp of the winter...March 2017 had a min of 14 tieing that winters low...I'm not predicting this to happen...but it could...

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and GFS have the same storm

60315b9132f16.png

That's too far away to have any confidence - we still are trying to have them agree on the late next week storm first...

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34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

That's too far away to have any confidence - we still are trying to have them agree on the late next week storm first...

Agree

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A photo from this afternoon:

Larchmont02202021-1b.jpg

 

Is it just me, seeing leak paths all over the place here?

Guess I was too long at the fair in suburbia...

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z OP Euro looks like fun with March wavelengths. The EPS members are all over the place. So you see the flatter EPS mean. But there could be a general storm signal if the omega block of the OP verifies.

6156A344-AA1C-4724-B718-444CC64908A9.thumb.png.e4435d1cedbecd4c05f15b7b6f0fe403.png

sounds like you're on board the snowy March train after a one week hiatus with mild and sunny weather this week

 

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6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Shocked how low the snow total was in NYC in 16/17. Was low 40s snowfall coastal CT.

NYC and western LI dont get high snowfall totals in March....I've been saying that for years lol.  Nothing shocking about it though, thats what urbanization has done.  I haven't seen a double digit snowfall in March since March 1993 and it took a once in a century event to make it happen.

 

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6 hours ago, Rjay said:

My @donsutherland1 tidbit of the day:  We're entering the time of year where the state of the PNA doesn't matter, re: 6" snowfalls in NYC.

 

lol look for the last 10" snowfall at NYC/LGA/JFK in March it was almost 30 years ago and I think that was the only one in my lifetime (March 1993).

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s pretty tough to have the snowiest month in March when when one of the winter months has 20”+.

 

Not only that having the snowiest month in March almost always means the winter sucked before that (see the 50s)

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Not only that having the snowiest month in March almost always means the winter sucked before that (see the 50s)

 

look into the multi quote button. You can quote multiple posts at once and respond with one post...

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7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

People have such short memories. This is the last 6 years full data plus this years so far in NYC. The months highlighted in red were the top snowfall months for that season. In Central Park 4 of the last 6 years March was the snowiest month. Last year shouldn't even count, what a nightmare it was for every month except of course that wonderful May event, that's why this year is such a blessing.

 

image.png.d1b3918c113b601d65419bced19e6476.png

CP we can still have major snowstorms in March of course, but the double digit snowfalls in urbanized areas like NYC and western LI is nonexistent- the last one here was March 1993.  It's easy to see why thats the case when you combine high sun angle with concrete.

I'm fine with it, as by March most of us are already in spring mode and a 6-8 inch storm is fine and considered exceptional by then.

 

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8 hours ago, EpicHECS said:

I've been echoing this. We're still very much in the game for a major storm all through March. The highest rated NESIS storm in history (by far) was in the middle of March. I think people forget this. Let alone the fact that there have been a *slew* of heavy snowfalls all through April over the years, as well. 

Yes and that was also the last time NYC or western LI had a double digit snowfall in March lol.

Also, Jan 1996 is considered the top snowstorm for our area, March 1993 was definitely better in the South though.

 

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if NYC can get more than 4.3” of snow in March. This is only the 4th year since 48-49 with more than 10” of snow for NYC during Dec and Feb with so little in Jan. While the sample is very small, this type of winter snowfall distribution has been very rare since 48-49. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 25.6 M M 38.2
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
1948-1949 0.0 T 25.3 1.8 10.7 4.2 0.0 42.0

 

how is it that 1966-67 isn't on this list?

 

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

CP we can still have major snowstorms in March of course, but the double digit snowfalls in urbanized areas like NYC and western LI is nonexistent- the last one here was March 1993.  It's easy to see why thats the case when you combine high sun angle with concrete.

I'm fine with it, as by March most of us are already in spring mode and a 6-8 inch storm is fine and considered exceptional by then.

 

my first big snowstorm was a few days before my seventh birthday in March 1956...then came March 1958...then came March 1960...1967 just missed...April 1982 just missed...March 1993 just made it...Staten Island got 12" in March 2018...

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The last snow flurries and snow showers departed the region early today. Most of the area saw partly sunny skies. Seasonal snowfall totals and anomalies following the most recent storm are:

Albany: 52.1" (8.1" above normal)
Allentown: 53.2" (24.2" above normal) ***11th highest***
Baltimore: 10.1" (6.3" below normal)
Binghamton: 87.4" (28.4" above normal) ***27th highest***
Boston: 38.4" (7.4" above normal)
Bridgeport: 43.3" (24.0" above normal)
Buffalo: 67.1" (7.1" below normal)
Burlington: 55.8" (0.5" below normal)
Caribou: 73.1" (3.2" below normal)
Harrisburg: 32.4" (10.0" above normal)
Islip: 33.1" (15.4" above normal)
New York City: 38.2" (19.4" above normal)
Newark: 44.5" (23.9" above normal) ***14th highest***
Philadelphia: 23.1" (6.1" above normal)
Portland: 40.8" (2.2" below normal)
Providence: 33.5" (8.0" above normal)
Washington, DC: 5.4" (7.4" below normal)

In response to the Arctic Oscillation's having gone positive, a pattern change will likely occur early next week. The advance of the milder air could be preceded by a storm that could bring some rain or snow changing to rain to parts of the region. Following the shift in the prevailing pattern, a period of warmer than normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +21.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.494 today

On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.284 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.477.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 27.7" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (2.4° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and that was also the last time NYC or western LI had a double digit snowfall in March lol.

Also, Jan 1996 is considered the top snowstorm for our area, March 1993 was definitely better in the South though.

 

March 2015 had a nice cold storm, probably the best that winter, but don't think it hit 10 in NYC; it may have in NJ

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

NYC only got 9.1" that month...

That can't be right.  I think that was the total for 1 storm.  They had a 9"+ snowfall around the first day of spring and a few inches a few days before be that.

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Euro looked nice just west of the city for Monday. Gets me 2-3" if correct. 

Several models concur and I think they'll trend a bit colder once they recognize it'll be a quick thump of snow. 

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15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That can't be right.  I think that was the total for 1 storm.  They had a 9"+ snowfall around the first day of spring and a few inches a few days before be that.

I thought he ment December...

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro looked nice just west of the city for Monday. Gets me 2-3" if correct. 

Several models concur and I think they'll trend a bit colder once they recognize it'll be a quick thump of snow. 

did you see 2 - 3 for you in EB  on the 18Z EURO ??because the 12Z doesn't see that

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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34 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That can't be right.  I think that was the total for 1 storm.  They had a 9"+ snowfall around the first day of spring and a few inches a few days before be that.

That was 9.1” in December. March had 17.4” snow.

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC only got 9.1" that month...

Oh okay, I thought that season followed the pattern of snowy December + mild January + snowy February and March.

I guess it did but 9.1 is less than 10 inches....that still is a snowy December though and a memorable Xmas Eve!

 

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