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snowman19

February 2021

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18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Keep reviewing for Monday morning.  look at the melt factor, timing w rush hr and multi model consensus.  I just think that it might take til 6 hrs before the event for us to know exactly where a small area of 3-4" can accumulate in 3-4 hrs west of I95. Convective. 

I agree, the convective nature is unusual.  A definite now cast event unfolding.

 

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7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

They had the same 3.2 inches at 1:00 pm yesterday in the Park so that final at midnight of 3.2 inches is highly questionable.

Shocking they would under measure at Central Park :rolleyes::rolleyes:

0.06” precipitation fell as snow after 1 pm. That never made it into the total and was the difference in failing to set a daily snowfall record. Quite frankly, this provides an example of the need to strengthen quality control related to data. This isn’t unique to Central Park. It would be useful for measurements to be flagged for review when snow falls at temperatures consistent with accumulations and nearby sites (in this case JFK and LGA reported additional accumulations). Quality control with temperatures is robust. With snowfall, there is latitude for improvement.

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Gfs comes north with the storm for next Friday. The PV  is right over the lakes.

 

The storm can't come further north due to the confluence over Maine. 

602fe3a1cf3c2.png

602fe3af04321.png

602fe3db8425c.png

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs comes north with the storm for next Friday. The PV  is right over the lakes.

 

The storm can't come further north due to the confluence over Maine. 

602fe3a1cf3c2.png

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Despite all the talk of an overall milder pattern moving in, I wonder if we can sneak in a thread the needle snow event late next week with that little shot of cold air. Models do look interesting.

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Despite all the talk of an overall milder pattern moving in, I wonder if we can sneak in a thread the needle snow event late next week with that little shot of cold air. Models do look interesting.

Strong 1035 high showing up north of Maine on the Icon and GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29.png

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16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. The possible failure to measure could make all the difference in this case.

it looks like they went with 3.2" for the date...if 0.06" fell as snow another half inch or so of fell after the 1pm measurement...even sleet would add a few tenths more...

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57 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

They had the same 3.2 inches at 1:00 pm yesterday in the Park so that final at midnight of 3.2 inches is highly questionable.

Shocking they would under measure at Central Park :rolleyes::rolleyes:

bring back the zoo keepers...:arrowhead:

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We are on track for our first La Niña February in 30 years with no 60° or warmer days. 

La Niña years bodied

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2021 51 10
2020 62 0
2019 68 0
2018 80 0
2017 74 0
2016 64 0
2015 42 0
2014 55 0
2013 57 0
2012 64 0
2011 71 0
2010 50 0
2009 66 0
2008 69 0
2007 51 0
2006 63 0
2005 57 0
2004 62 0
2003 50 0
2002 68 0
2001 61 0
2000 66 0
1999 70 0
1998 60 0
1997 74 0
1996 65 0

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for our first La Niña February in 30 years with no 60° or warmer days. 

La Niña years bodied

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2021 51 10
2020 62 0
2019 68 0
2018 80 0
2017 74 0
2016 64 0
2015 42 0
2014 55 0
2013 57 0
2012 64 0
2011 71 0
2010 50 0
2009 66 0
2008 69 0
2007 51 0
2006 63 0
2005 57 0
2004 62 0
2003 50 0
2002 68 0
2001 61 0
2000 66 0
1999 70 0
1998 60 0
1997 74 0
1996 65 0

 

this would be the first la nina with both Jan/Feb having their monthly max 51 or lower...1963 and 1968 used to be weak la nina but was down graded when the changes were made...both years had 51 or lower both months...

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The pattern the next 10 days when you just loop the Op GFS recent runs really looks more like a super Nino type pattern again...the only thing Nina like is the general high heights in the SE but overall if you look at temp departures in the SE they are not that much above normal for the period

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17 minutes ago, uncle W said:

this would be the first la nina with both Jan/Feb having their monthly max 51 or lower...1963 and 1968 used to be weak la nina but was down graded when the changes were made...both years had 51 or lower both months...

The ENSO responses have been all mixed up since the El Niño failed to couple in 18-19. We got more of a Niña-like response that winter. It was followed  by a 11-12 raging La Niña-like response during the 19-20 weak El Niño last winter. So I guess it makes sense that we get a more Niño-like response during this moderate La Niña winter.  Seems like too many competing SST warm blobs for a coherent ENSO response.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Despite all the talk of an overall milder pattern moving in, I wonder if we can sneak in a thread the needle snow event late next week with that little shot of cold air. Models do look interesting.

It’s possible. One isn’t dealing with an exceptionally warm pattern. 

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Quick post: travel 130P-530P. Thread  unlikely today for the 25th-28th.  

Am beginning to think broadening the potential period of meaningful late season wet snowfall for the forum is wise. Thinking 25th-26th could eventually link more favorably but 12z/19 OP NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS not that good, nor the GFSV16. So for those reasons, 25th-26th not an immediate thread.  

28th looks warm but like this event of 18-19, it too looked warm wet down here,   yet this is where 3-9" of snow fell on a thread  that initially captured a potential wintry event but favored R+/ZR+. That failed on ptype beyond 7-8 days.

So, thats the glory of the summer long range synoptic scale 7+ day lead time R+ threads... all rain. Can't mess that up. 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ENSO responses have been all mixed up since the El Niño failed to couple in 18-19. We got more of a Niña-like response that winter. It was followed  by a 11-12 raging La Niña-like response during the 19-20 weak El Niño last winter. So I guess it makes sense that we get a more Niño-like response during this moderate La Niña winter.  Seems like too many competing SST warm blobs for a coherent ENSO response.

This winter while the anomalies for a long time early on resembled a Nino vs a Nina I feel behaved more like a Nina than any of the recent El Ninos which basically behaved like La Ninas.  I think the reason the first part of this winter was so insanely mild despite the AO/NAO was the horrendous snow cover in Asia in the fall as well as the way Canada got torched in November.  I

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57 minutes ago, uncle W said:

this would be the first la nina with both Jan/Feb having their monthly max 51 or lower...1963 and 1968 used to be weak la nina but was down graded when the changes were made...both years had 51 or lower both months...

I'm pretty confident we get above 51 in the last few days of February. Could even end up on Feb 28.

60F as of now appears unlikely especially with lingering snow cover.

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

this would be the first la nina with both Jan/Feb having their monthly max 51 or lower...1963 and 1968 used to be weak la nina but was down graded when the changes were made...both years had 51 or lower both months...

Yeah, such a low maximum temperature for January and February is really out of place. The current max in NYC since January 1st is only 51°. That’s the 4th coldest on record. It would be the coldest max for Jan and Feb with such a mild DJF average temperature. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28
DJF average Temperature 
1 1969-02-28 48 32.9
2 1941-02-28 49 33.0
3 2003-02-28 50 31.2
- 1968-02-29 50 31.2
4 2021-02-28 51 35.3
- 1963-02-28 51 29.9
- 1920-02-29 51 27.4
- 1895-02-28 51 30.2
5 1908-02-29 52 33.0
- 1879-02-28 52 29.0
6 1958-02-28 53 33.2
- 1923-02-28 53 29.9
- 1905-02-28 53 28.1
- 1901-02-28 53 31.7
- 1899-02-28 53 31.3
- 1881-02-28 53 26.5
- 1871-02-28 53 31.2

 

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

4.3” at JFK brings them to 4th snowiest February at 25.3”.

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            4.3 R         2.1  2000   0.3    4.0      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE   25.3                       5.5   19.8      0.0      
  SINCE DEC 1     33.4                      16.5   16.9      3.8      
  SINCE JUL 1     33.4                      16.7   16.7      3.8      
  SNOW DEPTH       1                                                 


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 2003 32.1 0
2 2010 29.6 0
3 1961 25.4 0
4 2021 25.3 0

Thanks Chris, we had closer to 6 about 5 miles SE of there....and it's been snowing on and off today since 9:30 am, sometimes moderately my driveway is covered in snow again lol.  Any updates on snowfall amounts?

I saw people were disappointed in this storm, but yesterday I couldn't get out of my driveway without shoveling myself out, and there were a lot of volunteers going around on my street looking to shovel people out.  I did it myself but there was definitely much more snow here than there was in the city, and we were down to bare black top before this storm.

 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, such a low maximum temperature for January and February is really out of place. The current max in NYC since January 1st is only 51°. That’s the 4th coldest on record. It would be the coldest max for Jan and Feb with such a mild DJF average temperature. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28
DJF average Temperature 
1 1969-02-28 48 32.9
2 1941-02-28 49 33.0
3 2003-02-28 50 31.2
- 1968-02-29 50 31.2
4 2021-02-28 51 35.3
- 1963-02-28 51 29.9
- 1920-02-29 51 27.4
- 1895-02-28 51 30.2
5 1908-02-29 52 33.0
- 1879-02-28 52 29.0
6 1958-02-28 53 33.2
- 1923-02-28 53 29.9
- 1905-02-28 53 28.1
- 1901-02-28 53 31.7
- 1899-02-28 53 31.3
- 1881-02-28 53 26.5
- 1871-02-28 53 31.2

 

max 49 at JFK so far?  we should break that next week

 

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24 minutes ago, Brett said:

Friday looks like very little snow under an inch that changes to rain 

Yeah regardless of what any models show the writing is on the wall, this is our last snowfall for awhile as the pattern is changing.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This winter while the anomalies for a long time early on resembled a Nino vs a Nina I feel behaved more like a Nina than any of the recent El Ninos which basically behaved like La Ninas.  I think the reason the first part of this winter was so insanely mild despite the AO/NAO was the horrendous snow cover in Asia in the fall as well as the way Canada got torched in November.  I

it's because other factors are more important than enso, specifically the intense blocking

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ENSO responses have been all mixed up since the El Niño failed to couple in 18-19. We got more of a Niña-like response that winter. It was followed  by a 11-12 raging La Niña-like response during the 19-20 weak El Niño last winter. So I guess it makes sense that we get a more Niño-like response during this moderate La Niña winter.  Seems like too many competing SST warm blobs for a coherent ENSO response.

this makes long range forecasting more interesting, as forecasters actually have to think rather than applying cookie cutter enso patterns that no longer apply

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah regardless of what any models show the writing is on the wall, this is our last snowfall for awhile as the pattern is changing.

 

Depends on the location. There is still alot of cold air on the models going forward. 

603013182055e.png

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Long ranging has limitations.  Don’t think most of us thought this is how DJF would be.  I think someone liked a snowy Feb. I like that everyone is working on this.  There will be important leaps within a few years I think.  That’s the science. Perhaps some as yet undiscovered relations between precursor signals 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Depends on the location. There is still alot of cold air on the models going forward. 

603013182055e.png

I only need 1 inch to get to 40. Hope it works out 

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when patterns change, watch for deepening of coastal lows and major volatility in long range models accuracy.  I believe after the lp locations will change after every 3 runs because of the lack data ingested in the models far worse in pattern changes. 500 mile movements of lps are not uncommon.

 

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