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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Something else to watch... there's the possibility of a nice lake response on the western end of Lake Michigan to add to whatever synoptic amounts occur.  Not dealing with an extremely cold airmass by any means, but the warmth this winter has kept lake temps elevated.  If it works out, the lake enhancement could easily tack on several inches.

Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby

 

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30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Cary#s death band

 

Capture.JPG

Will blow that up and put it over the mantle. Weather art is trending

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

6z EPS mean...

2097bab04ba28c2cbb4e81b5a8c6e44f.jpg


.

Low track is solid. Imagine with this low track there is most certainly enhancement along the southwestern shore.

1611619200-2QWAG6aLgIY.png

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When does sampling begin? 

Between tonight and tomorrow night.


.
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4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Sharp cut off.  

 

Someone gets screwed.  Hopefully ice and sleet are at a min, however doesn't look too likely.

someone always gets screwed. That's the way this works.

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3 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Sharp cut off.  

 

Someone gets screwed.  Hopefully ice and sleet are at a min, however doesn't look too likely.

I'd be more worried about the energy coming out in pieces, and a miss south with the main energy than ice, sleet and a bigger threat with all the energy ejecting together. Most models seem to be keying on the former occuring.

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby

Low-level thermals are meh, but there should be a little enhancement from the lakeshore convergence and seeding from the 700mb forcing. Probably a case of be careful what you wish for, because to get an influx of colder air at ~850 than is currently modeled, you'd more than likely end up squashing the system back to the south. 

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3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Cary#s death band

 

Capture.JPG

I want a death band and I want it now!

image.jpeg.51e064fb8e67d7a5854f389268f4de35.jpeg

 

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For the lulz, go on Tidbits and do a run to run of the GFS going back to 12z yesterday.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

For the lulz, go on Tidbits and do a run to run of the GFS going back to 12z yesterday.

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I thought going back to 00z last night was generous, and it's still atrocious.

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I don’t know the local micro climate but the GFS blows no matter where the location is.  

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

For the lulz, go on Tidbits and do a run to run of the GFS going back to 12z yesterday.

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its still.south though. 

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its still.south though. 
It's good to use some caution, there's no guarantees the ECMWF locks in and we'll have to see the rest of the 12z suite. Model adjustments don't necessarily follow a linear caving trend. It's just interesting to see a linear-like trend on the GFS and having similar experiences in the past.

For the December 17th storm I've referenced, the GFS did not really budge from its incorrect solution, it only stepped that way in the near term, and honorary New England sub thread guest@weathafella can comment more on that. I've brought it up because it's fairly analogous in that the GFS for that setup struggled mightily with the effect of confluence from the north.

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Nice to see the CMC tick back north after last nights terrible run 

Indeed. Solid jump back northward.


.
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Just now, Chicago Storm said:


Indeed. Solid jump back northward.


.

Looking like also the GEFS might jump north slightly. 

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The mean is still south though. Sorry I can not upload images my computer is trash. I need to buy a new one! 

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's good to use some caution, there's no guarantees the ECMWF locks in and we'll have to see the rest of the 12z suite. Model adjustments don't necessarily follow a linear caving trend. It's just interesting to see a linear-like trend on the GFS and having similar experiences in the past.

For the December 17th storm I've referenced, the GFS did not really budge from its incorrect solution, it only stepped that way in the near term, and honorary New England sub thread guest@weathafella can comment more on that. I've brought it up because it's fairly analogous in that the GFS for that setup struggled mightily with the effect of confluence from the north.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah the GFS was a clean whiff until close in-recollection is it got a clue the final 24 hours.  Dendrite went from light snow to a verification of 30+.  In general if the euro is this consistent ride it.

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