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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This storm is not done trending south folks

I don't really see how one can establish a "trend" when models keep flip-flopping back and forth, nor can I see a solution where Indianapolis gets the brunt of this.

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

I agree with you that further south solutions are less prone to lake enhancement.

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I don't really see how one can establish a "trend" when models keep flip-flopping back and forth, nor can I see a solution where Indianapolis gets the brunt of this.

Exactly.

Additionally...In an alternate universe where the storm system was suppressed far enough south where IND ended up in the heart of the snow swath, it would be a sub-par event.

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On 1/20/2021 at 7:44 PM, Stebo said:

Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain.

Lol :facepalm:

Bold prediction there...Ohio is a big state so I'm sure somewhere in Ohio will see rain....  

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Exactly.

Additionally...In an alternate universe where the storm system was suppressed far enough south where IND ended up in the heart of the snow swath, it would be a sub-par event.

This.

That would mean there's barely a shortwave left due to confluence from the ULL/TPV and the SE ridge, there would barely be a "brunt".

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect.

Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion.

228270251_ScreenShot2021-01-22at10_22_52AM.thumb.png.b163f1ce8849dd758209d8d72147ca78.png

Delta T would probably improve after that time, though 850s don't ever get too cold on the GFS.

I'll say that the GFS has the lake signal on qpf plots, and it notoriously underdoes lake precip since it is a lower res model.  That being said, there's a lot to sort out with the synoptic details yet before we can be too confident in its solution.

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Only change on 12z Euro through 36hrs is that the northern stream lobe is a bit further east. Everything else, including heights in ahead of southern trough, are unchanged.

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17 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

That's fresh coming from you, but I agree, there's no reason to continue attacking posters simply because you disagree with their thoughts. 

Sorry fella, but I can't recall the last time I've attacked a poster for an opinion. But i do take exception with whining. So now I'll have to sic stebo  and chicago storm on you.  On to the ball kick from the 12Z Euro.

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35 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Without access to ensemble data from the UK, we don't know where the operational falls within the spread of its own ensemble system. The only more consistent forecast system has been the ECMWF/EPS. That said, while GFS operational has been very inconsistent, the overall suite has trended north the past several cycles, especially on the 12z GEFS.

 

The UKMET is concerning in that it's a possible scenario that can't yet be ruled out. The 12z ECMWF/EPS are the big key to this. If there aren't big changes from the 06z, I'd consider the UK a lower probability southern outlier like the NAM.

 

 Edit: And I'd like to restate from yesterday, given antecedent pattern for this event, including initially pretty marginal thermals, I feel confident in saying we wouldnt even be in the game in most of northern IL without the NAO block. Maybe a more east based block could modulate enough and still keep us in the snow threat zone, but with a positive NAO, I don't see how Alek wouldn't be posting the Eurythmics video.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For sure. If the euro holds serve, you cannot discount the consistency. 

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12z Euro might bump SE.

Northern stream lobe is a bit more favorable than 0z run...However, heights are a bit lower ahead of southern trough, and it is slower and more positive tilt prior to ejection.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro might bump SE.

Northern stream lobe is a bit more favorable than 0z run...However, heights are a bit lower ahead of southern trough, and it is slower and more positive tilt prior to ejection.

Definitely looks SE. 

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro might bump SE.

Northern stream lobe is a bit more favorable than 0z run...However, heights are a bit lower ahead of southern trough, and it is slower and more positive tilt prior to ejection.

Yep agree, SLP also further south. Don't think it'll be dramatic, but not friendly trends. Luckily, still plenty of time.

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

The it jumps hard NW from 72-78. Not as bad as I thought it was going. 

Slower timing makes it look worse than it is.

In any case, a bump SE is a bump SE.

It's actually a bump NW from the 0z run, just a bump SE from the 6z run.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Slower timing makes it look worse than it is.

In any case, a bump SE is a bump SE.

It's actually a bump NW from the 0z run, just a bump SE from the 6z run.

Its actually going to be a much better snow run for N IL than it appears, based on low placement. Throwing snow wayyyy back west after it passes. 

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Slower timing makes it look worse than it is.

In any case, a bump SE is a bump SE.

It's actually a bump NW from the 0z run, just a bump SE from the 6z run.

And indeed that's how it will continue.

Bump SE of 6z run and bump NW of 0z run. So call it even.

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It honestly looks like in general, models are struggling with the positioning of center SLP. Look at what the GEM does between hours 72 and 84 with surface low placement. Hard to know at this point which placement is correct, but I continue to think this is ours and am not overly concerned. I would like to see south trends at least pause on the 00z, if not start moving back north.

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