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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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Canada low jumped south from the 00z run, so our system also jumped south.
sn10_acc.us_mw.png&key=6b020f7b4271c7fd5759284e5479bb37e3c02951654cceaaf9e640211a15c773

Main wave ejecting out was also much slower and a bit more loose.


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2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

To say the least. 

Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy

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Just now, mimillman said:

Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy

 

Just now, mimillman said:

Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy

he smokes my area in the ukmet scenario... 0.9 vs 0.4. Nightmare solution for Chicago as we split the minimal WAA wave and the main wave goes south.

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UKMET has gone from a weak event just north of I-70, to an I-88 crusher, and now back to a north of I-70 good hit...in the span of 4 model cycles.

Wouldn’t really consider that a model of consistency or trending.


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Just now, mimillman said:

Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy

I'm not sure what your problem is, but yes, the Ukie is another strike against the far northern tier counties. 

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

I'm not sure what your problem is, but yes, the Ukie is another strike against the far northern tier counties. 

What was the GFS? You were absent as that rolled out and only reappear to highlight runs that support this wall theory of yours.

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Next 24 hrs of model crunching is what we live for..  Last night I Text Melted out my raging hate of this storm to Weenie Nick in Wauwatosa.

What a cleansing week its been.

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Just now, mimillman said:

What was the GFS? You were absent as that rolled out and only reappear to highlight runs that support this wall theory of yours.

I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me.

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me.

I have a job but I can multi-task ;)

 

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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me.

I'm going to mute this thread until the 4 PM forecast and AFD updates as the roller coaster of the snow maps where I'm at (N IL) is just too much! ;-)

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19 hours ago, mimillman said:

GFS won't cave until within 72 hours. In that time Alek will call a bust, McHenrySnow will claim miss south 3 more times, and StormfanaticInd will be given false hope.

 

2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Like I said last night you have to respect the block

:D

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Without access to ensemble data from the UK, we don't know where the operational falls within the spread of its own ensemble system. The only more consistent forecast system has been the ECMWF/EPS. That said, while GFS operational has been very inconsistent, the overall suite has trended north the past several cycles, especially on the 12z GEFS.

 

The UKMET is concerning in that it's a possible scenario that can't yet be ruled out. The 12z ECMWF/EPS are the big key to this. If there aren't big changes from the 06z, I'd consider the UK a lower probability southern outlier like the NAM.

 

 Edit: And I'd like to restate from yesterday, given antecedent pattern for this event, including initially pretty marginal thermals, I feel confident in saying we wouldnt even be in the game in most of northern IL without the NAO block. Maybe a more east based block could modulate enough and still keep us in the snow threat zone, but with a positive NAO, I don't see how Alek wouldn't be posting the Eurythmics video.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 

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1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 

This. It could be in central IL by 00z tonight and the main weenie band band could still end up near the IL/WI border. Have seen that happen many times before

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9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 

agreed. Couple of newbies got loose from pre school. Best not to engage. As I said two days ago...going to be a long slog.:cry:

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


you’re still not in the game, champ.


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Every Sub-Forum needs a ,USCAPEWEATHERAF.

Understandably - Everybody wants a piece of this storm. From Saukville to Indy. Sucks to be those two ATM.  Detroit Duster can still save Indy.  Saukville is gasping for air but a shipment of easterly dry air is due to arrive..  gonna get good in here.

 

 

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Just now, Baum said:

agreed. Couple of newbies got loose from pre school. Best not to engage. As I said two days ago...going to be a long slog.:cry:

That's fresh coming from you, but I agree, there's no reason to continue attacking posters simply because you disagree with their thoughts. 

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Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

Agreed, though slightly further north. Chicago is definitely still in this, imo. 

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2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This thread is a ****ing trainwreck right now.

Just wait until the 12z Euro comes out :lmao:

Still not ready to bite on this one yet, but I'm certainly along for the ride.

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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

Agreed, though slightly further north. Chicago is definitely still in this, imo. 

For sure, a swath about that width either side is still in the game. Just where I have the higher confidence for now. 

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3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

That's fresh coming from you, but I agree, there's no reason to continue attacking posters simply because you disagree with their thoughts. 

C’mon man. That's a stretch

 

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