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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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2 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a  Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade.

There are background base state truths we need to remember. It’s a Nina. Almost all those HECS storms were in Ninos. And we’re in the middle of an epic run of torch.  So given those factors do I expect some 2010 type snow blitz no. But this longwave pattern is about as good as we can get to just snow given and despite those hostile realities we must contend with. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s over 

B80BD9EA-1588-4F40-B8BF-5047201BFFAA.thumb.png.efe2f14fabd51ddaa04bf512d6e7fb0c.png

360 hours out, plenty of time for an east trend??

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-snow_ge_48-2440000.thumb.png.b2deb834b8258d14d0137272b16385a7.png

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

414B90BE-15DF-461F-B7A2-39240C029406.thumb.png.745feda611516d6e92d270f1dfeff5c6.png

That’s got cad written all over it. Look at the probs due west of us past the mountains.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

414B90BE-15DF-461F-B7A2-39240C029406.thumb.png.745feda611516d6e92d270f1dfeff5c6.png

SUCK IT BAHSTAN

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Preoccupied today... thanks!

You found time to post the suck ass gefs and used suckiest ass run of all the recent suck ones too.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You found time to post the suck ass gefs and used suckiest ass run of all the recent suck ones too.

It’s all about priorities 

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s over 

B80BD9EA-1588-4F40-B8BF-5047201BFFAA.thumb.png.efe2f14fabd51ddaa04bf512d6e7fb0c.png

Stealing my jokes!

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s over 

B80BD9EA-1588-4F40-B8BF-5047201BFFAA.thumb.png.efe2f14fabd51ddaa04bf512d6e7fb0c.png

is JI holding a make believe gun to your head?

 

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Started reading this forum again today after DCA surpassed climo snow amounts (BARELY) on eps for 3 straight days. And I haven’t been around much, but I feel like there was more bullying of weenies in the past. mocking them helped create the space for a serious discussion of the upcoming storm threats by experts and hobbyists with smart questions. And it helped the weenies participate with good posts, because they feared being mocked. Anyway! Best not to overthink these things. Meta forum discussions suck. But this still is a smart forum, and a bit of heavy-handed moderation in the substantive topics might not hurt!

 

 

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based on what this showed at 00z and 6z yesterday....id say we have made some considerable progress. This one has HECS upside(5%) chance

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

neutral tilt on this run..lets see how north she goes

Heavies to the south. We get some snow. I"ll take it this far out. If the current GFS trend over the last 5 runs for this threat continues, we'll be in the bullseye by 6z. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

poor psu ;)

1611856800-cW0CiZwCQ8U.png

its going north like 100 miles every run lol

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when DT is in the bullsye at 174...ill take that all day long

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