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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that's where I am.  It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out.  NAM's got plenty of time to get it together.  Guess we'll see if the other 18z now.

we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks

Thru 48, it was much better in the mids. That's where I stop believing the nam. Especially in the face of overwhelming guidance to the contrary with the storm itself. There are times to freak out on the NAM. For me, this isnt even close to one of them. Now if all of 18z goes that way, I'll see ya next winter

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAM wants to be stubborn.  Yes it took a baby step early but it’s not even close. It’s off by over 100 miles on where it places that band of snow. 

100 miles? Pffft. That's less than 1 NAM run away to correct. 1000 miles is a red flag tho

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Any other year we would say the NAM is out to lunch and toss.

But this is the one year where it's caught on to things before the others. It's been alone before this year but the others have caved. Will that repeat this time or is it simply mishandling some piece of data that the others don't?

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Nice discussion(as usual) from Mount Holly-

Thursday: A rather nice (if you like wintry weather) sfc configuration will be in place over our area on Thursday with a robust cold high positioned north of the area, with the resulting NE flow creating a nice CAD setup. However, the upper-lvls will be a bit less favorable, with the the H5 trough-ridge configuration being shifted a bit west of the "textbook" positioning. This results in a slightly more westward track of the surface/850 lows, with the consensus track of the sfc. low being just offshore of the NJ coast on Thursday night, while the 850 wave would pass overhead. All that being said, the trend over the last couple days has definitely been colder with this system with the east coast ridge trending flatter and the northern High trending stronger with each guidance cycle. Consequently this setup would likely result in a general thump of snow Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon, before warmer air arrives aloft and we see ptypes transition from S-N to sleet/freezing ran/rain Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The main questions now are how long-lasting and powerful that initial "thump" of snow is, and also how quickly the column warms . Given a solid 600-700mb FGEN signature in the warm advection regime, along with increasing UL divergence in the right entrance region of the northern jet, would not be surprised if the initial snow-thump packs a punch, and many locations could pick up several inches of snow fairly rapidly on Thursday. Given the robust CAD setup would also not be surprised if many locations NW of I-95 never get above freezing and thus see only frozen precipitation during the entirety of the event. This scenario would also largely alleviate any hydro concerns as the warm temperatures/rain would not fall on the areas with the healthiest snowpack. The one real dissident solution to the general evolution described above is the NAM, which has the system more amplified and further west, and as a result has a howling (70+kt) SWrly 700mb jet moving through the area early Thursday. This results in rapid warm advection aloft, with a very quick transition to sleet and thus limited snow accumulations, with also a fairly pronounced dry slot. The NAM can certainly act as the "canary in the coal mine" for warm nose potential in these setups so it can`t be discounted off hand. However, at the same time feel it is sufficiently at odds with the consensus synoptic evolution that it was largely ignored in this package.

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25 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier".  

Careful apparently letting the NAM spook you wrt mid level warmth qualifies as “going off the rails” to some ( @leesburg 04 ) around here.  
 

I agree is probably just an outlier.  It’s not stringing out the energy like the globals and that allows the primary to amplify and push everything to our NW.  Its so different from everything else (except the SREF which like that idea too). If I HAD to bet I would favor the globals but I don’t feel great with the NAM showing that. Given all the recent let downs I’d like to have it on board before letting myself get overly optimistic about the big snow totals being indicated by everything else. 

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