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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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@Ji UKMet keeps DC below freezing for the entire storm. Main sfc reflection is along the coast instead of the OH valley. First of the more reliable guidance (though UKmet does have some wacky solutions out in time it seems) to really do that, so I'm skeptical. Like you said probably more sleet than snow but 850s don't look too bad. Probably a warm layer above that.
There was a cluster of eps that did that. Today euro run is most important of my life
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The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. 
Focus on Thursday. Come on man
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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Even if half is sleet...ill take this and call it a February c09f04475e401434156635dc22d5ca06.jpg

Keep an eye on that sneaky wave around the 22/23. After that don’t assume everything cuts north the end of Feb into March if the NAO does go neg again. As wavelengths shorten it gets really hard for waves to cut with a -NAO regardless of the pac pattern.  It might not be a cold pattern but odds would favor some systems sliding east under the block.  For places like leesburg and Winchester and up here that works even in a not truly cold pattern.  Historically that has worked in the cities too. There were plenty of late season snowstorms where temps the day before were very mild in the past. But I honestly don’t know about 95 anymore. I need to see some “marginal” boundary temp setups break their way just once to believe they even still can anymore.  It’s been a long time since we saw a setup like that work for DC. 

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14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. 

In the last 24 hours, you have become worse than @Ji

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. 

Op run at range. Dont care. Remember what I said yesterday about details at range. Even with the SE ridge going about as ape as I think is possible (seasonal trend says it will be less) the op gfs snows on central PA 3 times from Feb 22 on!  At those ranges that’s the same as a hit. An op at those leads cannot pin down the boundary within that level of geographic detail.  So long as the NAO is negative again we will have a chance for waves to get suppressed.  Don’t take my word for it go back and look at the pacific in March 2018. It was PUTRID. Didn’t matter. Same in some other March cold snowy Nina’s. It’s really hard for waves to cut with a -NAO in March. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs with a not insignificant improvement for Thursday. 

1613660400-OFPi0DJov5M.png

Details I don't understand aside there is definitely support for this starting with a period of snow. Interesting stuff.

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs with a not insignificant improvement for Thursday. 

Can you please continue hating on this storm... Seems like it was working

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35 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

In the last 24 hours, you have become worse than @Ji

Pump and dump that's how we roll in the Mid-Atlantic Southeast.

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2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

An inch of QPF on the Euro for Tuesday.  That plus the ice melt is gonna make for some soggy ground. 

Maybe even flooding.

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Snow at 96 and definitely colder.  Snow line moved south from 0z
Bring it

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Looks like we hang on to the surface for almost the duration.  Snow --> ice --> dryslot. 

That's what it looks like now.  Frozen to dry slot.

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