psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Cmc looks to have a decent thump snow to ice event from the precip plots that updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Um, Para has purple patch snow over us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS/PARA/Canadian are all pretty similar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Models overdoing precip in the medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Para will have a better low track as well. Should avoid too much rain. I thought it was going to but it ended up rocketing north also. But I think the euro and icon have a much more realistic look to the path of that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 para less rainy than 18z also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's not going to snow unless the indexes change. It's the start of a really warm period, it will be interesting to see if that forward happening blends back to the storm. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Um, Para has purple patch snow over us. Cmc has some very heavy banding aimed right at DC then too. It’s very questionable if it’s snow/sleet. Flips back and forth for a few hours in the precip type plots. Nothing else updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, StormchaserChuck! said: It's not going to snow unless the indexes change. Do you ever try to make a post that isn’t just some far fetched scenario written in some alien language? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Cmc has some very heavy banding aimed right at DC then too. It’s very questionable if it’s snow/sleet. Flips back and forth for a few hours in the precip type plots. Nothing else updated yet. Yea on stormvista plots I have no clue what ptype either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Canadian is a quick hitting thump. It doesn't have a protracted multi-faceted event like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: It's not going to snow unless the indexes change. It's the start of a really warm period, it will be interesting to see if that forward happening blends back to the storm. Cállate Chuck 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Does anyone actually think we're getting an 8-12" 1-2"/hr event Thursday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yea on stormvista plots I have no clue what ptype either. It’s snow or sleet. There is a 6 hour period with extremely heavy precip from DC to the PA line and it keeps flipping back and forth and has areas of snow south of areas of sleet. Indicative of a small warm layer that might be overcome by rates. But that 6 hour period is the difference between a minor v major event wrt snow accumulations. It would be high impact either way with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Does anyone actually think we're getting an 8-12" 1-2"/hr event Thursday morning Trend friend nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Does anyone actually think we're getting an 8-12" 1-2"/hr event Thursday morning I said WTH I’ll buy in. Why not. Aren’t we due something to break our way? There is a lot flawed with this setup but one thing we do have is legit cold ahead of it. A lot of the fails recently can be attributed to the lack of that ingredient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Take the worst current model solution, and that is the ceiling for what actually happens 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Does anyone actually think we're getting an 8-12" 1-2"/hr event Thursday morning Certainly not, but given the setup a 1-3/2-4 thump followed by ice then dry slot or light rain is attainable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm gonna ride or die the euro like usual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Does anyone actually think we're getting an 8-12" 1-2"/hr event Thursday morning Yes. Yes I do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Take the worst current model solution, and that is the ceiling for what actually happens Normally I would agree. Not this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yes. Yes I do. I don’t necessarily think 8-12, but I could see 6+ with glaciatuon afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yes. Yes I do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t necessarily think 8-12, but I could see 6+ with glaciatuon afterward. I'm joking. You certainly could see 6+. I live in a snow anus, I will see 2 and call it a victory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This is hitting our area on the models 84 hours out... qpf will be at the NY/PA border by then! Sucks us in every time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: This is hitting our area on the models 84 hours out... qpf will be at the NY/PA border by then! Sucks us in every time... Already moved SE. If anything, it’ll jack richmond by tmrw night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I just can’t see that low trucking north like that. I think the ICON progression is more believable Canadian has stuck with a progression that would fit your thinking. Check out hour 102. It's night and day different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GEFS mean is not as bullish as the op, but still looks like 3-6" before the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 DC at 84 hours...2-4" has fallen by this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I suppose the one thing that's consistent so far on guidance is the surface is frigid. Don't need rates to overcome 33-35 at the surface. I would take a 6hr dynamic system of all types of precip at 28-30 degrees. 1-5" of snow/sleet would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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