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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

With the ICON, Euro, UKIE in one camp, I would think the gfs insistence on taking that low basically due north up just west of the apps is wrong.

It seems to be moving towards that camp.

This is one thing I have noticed on the Euro and Para- more of a focus on that vorticity max out ahead.

1613703600-pUlaVd8QOd0.png

1613714400-Ksf3boq17Cg.png

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just a couple of days ago it seems that I was reading that winter is over but looking at the temps on the 6z gfs it sure doesn’t seem that way. Also looks now that maybe at least a modified version of the Arctic air gonna be able to make some inroads on our area.

The pattern looks ok to me going forward, as long as the positive spike in the AO and NAO is temporary. Both the GEFS and EPS have the AO/NAO going negative the last few days of the month and into March. With a significantly -PNA being forecast, we need the blocking.

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just a couple of days ago it seems that I was reading that winter is over but looking at the temps on the 6z gfs it sure doesn’t seem that way. Also looks now that maybe at least a modified version of the Arctic air gonna be able to make some inroads on our area.

If anything, it does look like there’s an AN period next week before colder air returns heading into March. 

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Just now, blueberryfaygo said:

I know that the GFS is  not as good the euro wrt to the overall progression.. but it also gives us the most snow... All of this is the front end thump (before flipping):

 

image.thumb.png.ceeedaffb4ca5388a903495ac400f9a6.png 

Gotta be careful with those maps though...Im pretty sure theres a good period of sleet/Freezing rain in there, that the map is counting as snow

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Gotta be careful with those maps though...Im pretty sure theres a good period of sleet/Freezing rain in there, that the map is counting as snow

The next six hours is the sleet and freezing rain (valid 00z).. it shows 2 more inches of snow but its probably sleet.. the above shows the panels ending 12z and 18z which stay snow for everyone north of Baltimore...

Its a heathy thump...

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The pattern looks ok to me going forward, as long as the positive spike in the AO and NAO is temporary. Both the GEFS and EPS have the AO/NAO going negative the last few days of the month and into March. With a significantly -PNA being forecast, we need the blocking.

A -pna -NAO is actually a really good pattern in March. A lot of our March snows featured that look. 

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2 minutes ago, Brett said:

New member to the forums here but I read that the advertised -NAO is going to be eastern based. Does that matter? A few people said it is not good to be eastern based?

Welcome!  West based is better. East based can work but it’s less a sure thing. It’s also not static. It will shift around. 

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2 minutes ago, Brett said:

New member to the forums here but I read that the advertised -NAO is going to be eastern based. Does that matter? A few people said it is not good to be eastern based?

An east based nao is not the greatest snow look in dec, but with shorter wavelengths it becomes less of an issue in March. West is still ideal always.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Agree,. Success largely hinges on getting some pretty robust blocking though to keep the SE ridge in check.

Yes. The pac is finally hot garbage after this week. Luckily it waited until the part of winter when the pac matters the least. Still if it’s going to be that awful we will need the NAO to offset.  

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12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Let's hope this one works out!!

I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer.  This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment!  
EPS

D6D14882-3958-44D8-9116-838706DB208E.gif.18382aa5fee06a003c7fd94eedd84818.gif

GEFS 

B2FF0F2B-F560-438E-A993-6632027DD359.gif.325b4fd0c296a264781ac364becbe967.gif

GEPS

5997A7F2-2AD6-4834-BD70-A250A58F12DE.gif.3d5da657570bc649de3bbe21561a81bf.gif

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Imagine the next Mont Holly AFD might become a little more bullish on snowfall versus sleet and rain. 

I don't blame them on wanting to get closer to the event.

FXUS61 KPHI 151119 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service

Mount Holly NJ

619 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

 

 

Precipitation type: If we get precipitation on Wednesday night ahead
of the mid level warm air advection, then precip will start as all
snow. The elevated warm layer will develop from south to north
through the day on Thursday, resulting in a change from snow to
wintry mix and eventually to rain for some of our region. The
elevated warm layer should erode from west to east Thursday night
into Friday, which will mean our precipitation will change once
again to a rain/snow mix depending on the temperature through the
boundary layer. Part of this will be dependent on which of the
surface lows becomes dominant, if it is the eastern low as the ECMWF
is depicting, this change to rain/snow could occur earlier than what
we are currently forecasting.

Wintery impacts: Our snow and ice amount forecasts won`t go out far
enough to cover this event until Tuesday afternoon, and the amounts
are still very uncertain given the questions of precipitation type
mentioned above. That being said, snow to liquid ratios will likely
be quite low through this event (combination of periods of mixed
precip and marginal temperature profiles even with all snow), so
that should temper snow amounts. Ice, of course is the other
concern, but the good news here is that for most of the region, the
period of freezing rain should be limited before a change over to
rain or all snow. However, any amount of ice can have impacts (as we
saw yesterday). At this point, I expect some travel/driving impacts
for most, if not all of the region.

 

 

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