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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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23 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm". Thats an exact quote. And although I agree with that statement my comments and context was never for a perfect setup on the PAC side. But I made the point that UNTIL that cooperates, then who cares about all the great pieces in the atlantic and poleward. But nope, everyone criticized me for being a Debbie.. Mmhmmm

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years!  So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

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how come what shows up on the ensembles in terms of snow never show up on the OP

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Which is exactly my point....we aren't scoring during the heart of the epic blocking pattern. We are likely going to hit when the pattern breaks down or flips completely. Might be a one-off, who knows? But chances seem higher than usual for a HA event this season.

I know its the gfs op at range but there is your HA signature.  Long duration overunning while ull catches up and meets at the coast last days of Jan while the AO/NAO relax/flip. Get a better PNA ridge out west even if transient and we will be talking KU during the waning days of Jan thru Feb 7ish.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

how come what shows up on the ensembles in terms of snow never show up on the OP

The snow mean day 8-16 looks good but most members get there by 1 hit out of the 3 or so waves in that period. Today’s GFS has 1 hit from the 3rd. Yesterday it had a hit from the second. You are focused on the first wave only. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

how come what shows up on the ensembles in terms of snow never show up on the OP

Blended mean solutions, lower resolution, etc.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow mean day 8-16 looks good but most members get there by 1 hit out of the 3 or so waves in that period. Today’s GFS has 1 hit from the 3rd. Yesterday it had a hit from the second. You are focused on the first wave only. 

im focused on any wave that would snow for us and that wave has pushed back 2 weeks now. We cant even buy a raindrop

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im tired of the euro showing us snow and then caving to the GFS. Just an embarrasemnt for the european community

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years!  So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

I don't understand all the meteorological teleconnections, but I do know enough that the raging pac jet is a really bad thing.  I thought we were in good shape with a -NAO, -AO, etc, but when I saw the "pac puke" coming back this year, I knew we were in trouble.  I remember after 2016, it seemed that none of the long term models had any accuracy at predicting and I heard mets explaining that it was the extremely strong pacific jet wreaking havoc on long-term modeling.  I guess that is what is happening again and why we can't get any accuracy in the long-term.  Are there any teleconnections to predict when that might slow down or is that tied to whether the PNA is positive or negative?  I know we could use a +PNA with our blocking.  

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

im tired of the euro showing us snow and then caving to the GFS. Just an embarrasemnt for the european community

It's got this weird thing going on with the Atlantic height anomalies causing the flow to be less progressive than it is.

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I wish it was possible to be reaped multiple times in a winter. Least last year we had some really warm days mixed in. This winter sucks ass

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Para has a snowstorm day 11.  Did I miss something?  Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance.  So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th.  Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that.  We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down.  Maybe I missed the memo.  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Para has a snowstorm day 11.  Did I miss something?  Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance.  So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th.  Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that.  We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down.  Maybe I missed the memo.  

It is like going on an interview and they say "We will call you." But they never do.

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Para has a snowstorm day 11.  Did I miss something?  Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance.  So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th.  Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that.  We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down.  Maybe I missed the memo.  
You lost me at day 11. Nobody when this month started assumed that we would not at least be tracking a threat this weekend. Everyone said wait till mid month. We'll it's here.

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

You lost me at day 11. Nobody when this month started assumed that we would not at least be tracking a threat this weekend. Everyone said wait till mid month. We'll it's here.

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

But the wave around the 22nd was a long shot yesterday too. You know that. You’ve pointed out the euro was totally on its own and we knew it would cave. So why the meltdown when exactly what we expected happens?  The better threats were always AFTER that. What changed today v yesterday? 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji the 12z gefs has the best signal for a discreet period (Jan 25-29) that we’ve seen since Dec.   

 

 

I don't mean to be a pain here but could you use "discrete".  Discreet brings back bad memories.  My sister lost a spelling bee because she spelled indiscreet  as follows:  I N D I S C R E T E. 

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9 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I am a novice but the op euro looks like it is gonna drop an atomic bomb across CONUS around D10

atomic bomb is right. Lots of heat. cant even get our blocking to hold the HP

 

and yes...i know this will be supressed at 0z

 

update: Looks like a major ice storm

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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Just now, RedSky said:

That must be the January thaw storm on time as usual

 

its actually pretty cold at the surface. It might be a legit ice storm lol

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@frd @Ji I know this is frustrating but taking a step back to look at the big picture...this was probably the low point in terms of thermal profile in our source regions 2 days ago. Look at our source regions in Canada!!!!  It’s near 32 degrees even in Canada at 7am!!! Ugh

28D56247-6240-412E-9302-EA75692F8F4D.thumb.png.4b16dfb850de910e558d06144f864f3c.png
By day 10

E3C71C1B-204D-42F1-AF56-981A78A5E7D8.thumb.png.f47c129659c840c2dd423d7ef97db7fe.png

day 15 

41392E0C-A547-49BA-B179-BCEB84EDB293.thumb.png.51b06444d37998437cbd8da574379ec7.png

we have to let this play out. We have not had a pattern with cold available yet.

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19 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I don't mean to be a pain here but could you use "discrete".  Discreet brings back bad memories.  My sister lost a spelling bee because she spelled indiscreet  as follows:  I N D I S C R E T E. 

I will try to be discreet about how I use discrete 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd @Ji I know this is frustrating but taking a step back to look at the big picture...this was probably the low point in terms of thermal profile in our source regions 2 days ago. Look at our source regions in Canada!!!!  It’s near 32 degrees even in Canada at 7am!!! Ugh

28D56247-6240-412E-9302-EA75692F8F4D.thumb.png.4b16dfb850de910e558d06144f864f3c.png
By day 10

E3C71C1B-204D-42F1-AF56-981A78A5E7D8.thumb.png.f47c129659c840c2dd423d7ef97db7fe.png

day 15 

41392E0C-A547-49BA-B179-BCEB84EDB293.thumb.png.51b06444d37998437cbd8da574379ec7.png

we have to let this play out. We have not had a pattern with cold available yet.

Great illustration. Now say something to make me feel good about precip making into our region and I’ll be able to sleep tonight :lol:

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