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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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I got 1.7 inches of snow for the 24 hour period on 0.35 inch liquid and 1.0 inch of snow overnight. During a normal winter the 0.35 would have translated into around 5 inches of snow but this year it was actually raining for a while yesterday afternoon. 

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So, next week the GFS is back to a whiff for us. It's either a cutter or it's south. This pattern just doesn't work for us.

We need a solid noreaster that digs and works it's way north along the coast. These lows cutting up through the Midwest hit this triangle that either shoots them far left or far right.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

So, next week the GFS is back to a whiff for us. It's either a cutter or it's south. This pattern just doesn't work for us.

We need a solid noreaster that digs and works it's way north along the coast. These lows cutting up through the Midwest hit this triangle that either shoots them far left or far right.

Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs

image.thumb.png.8da339803c7411e56c3860dc1c506e33.png

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs

image.thumb.png.8da339803c7411e56c3860dc1c506e33.png

Agree.  This has every shot to come north.  We need to see some stability in the solutions which wont happen until day 5 earliest.  Lets see if this gets support from the euro in the next couple of days and go from there.  Encouraging look as far as i am concerned.

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs

image.thumb.png.8da339803c7411e56c3860dc1c506e33.png

I know we’re still in the range where we shouldn’t be taking this model as gospel but it still amazes me that it goes from a cutter over Green Bay to a surpressed low over Wheeling, WV in basically one run. Where will it be tomorrow, probably over Atlanta. Or maybe it will disappear, lol. 

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I’m pretty sure we’re all looking at a very sharp cutoff to the better snows over the next couple weeks. Model trends are not our friends right now and unless you live in higher terrain in the favorable spots then I’m guessing you’ll be seeing more grass than snow. 

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Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca!

 

Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in
  northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and
  Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward.
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Warning issued for Oswego county as well..

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most
  persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau
  Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (8).png

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18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Warning issued for Oswego county as well..

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most
  persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau
  Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (8).png

If that lines up the cutoff would be about 2 miles south of my house...yeah that’s about right..

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Suppression city on the euro.. Could be another impending dry spell lol

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus (43).png

It’s the low over Colorado we have to watch. 

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4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

 

It’s the low over Colorado we have to watch. 

He's comparing to the same LP of the GFS at the 192 run hour.

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About 10” of new snow in Sardinia (far southern Erie County). Nothing fell during my hike (9-1), little over 12” OTG there. 
 

We had maybe 0.5” last night IMBY, enough to whiten things up until the temp climbed over freezing again and now back to all green.

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2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca!

 

Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in
  northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and
  Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward.

I still don’t see what they see

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

About 10” of new snow in Sardinia (far southern Erie County). Nothing fell during my hike (9-1), little over 12” OTG there. 
 

We had maybe 0.5” last night IMBY, enough to whiten things up until the temp climbed over freezing again and now back to all green.

Went to knox farm in EA and they had about 3-4" there. Was snowing the entire time, such a beautiful walk. My dogs favorite place in all of Buffalo is that dog park.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Went to knox farm in EA and they had about 3-4" there. Was snowing the entire time, such a beautiful walk. My dogs favorite place in all of Buffalo is that dog park.

Definitely a beautiful place

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11 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Road trip?

Amazingly that’s a 173 degree temp swing in less than 6 months! They went over 100 got the first time ever this summer and now they’re 173 degrees colder...damn 

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13 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Looks like a meso low forming over niagara. Looks intense. Headed just north of Buffalo 

Yeah I’m wondering if this might cover my grass for the first time in 2021! :weight_lift:
 

E0B4A144-02D9-4B9C-A73C-0A36B93AA629.thumb.gif.318578e72a636afd6ec49a1e0a800e8a.gif

 

 

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29 minutes ago, vortmax said:

18z NAM still has nothing for S Shore (<1")...18z RDPS backing off some (~6-7")... yet BUF upped their map:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Yeah they did the same thing they do every event lol

They put the High end as the expected.. Except for east of Ontario of course;)

SnowAmt90Prcntl (12).png

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