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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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18 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted

BLUF, use current model data with caution....

"All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with.

Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution."

From Gilbert Sebenste

So considering that does that mean the Euro/CMC has a better handle on things?  Or do all models use this data?  Curious 

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So considering that does that mean the Euro/CMC has a better handle on things?  Or do all models use this data?  Curious 

Wish I could answer, but my logical mind says they would use same data points....but that’s me pontificating.

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Wish I could answer, but my logical mind says they would use same data points....but that’s me pontificating.

Makes sense but someone mentioned earlier Euro uses Chinese and Russian data that US models do not.  Everyday you learn something here. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Makes sense but someone mentioned earlier Euro uses Chinese and Russian data that US models do not.  Everyday you learn something here. 

True dat

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It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. 

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1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. 

I don’t think that kind of event can happen again.  While everyone complains about the models I am not sure that kind of last minute change could happen.  Now from 12 inches to nada sure...

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10 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. 

blizzard of 66 was the very same way

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1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted

BLUF, use current model data with caution....

"All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with.

Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution."

From Gilbert Sebenste

So it doesn’t have all that much effect on the threat window that’s 5-6 days away.

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3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So it doesn’t have all that much effect on the threat window that’s 5-6 days away.

Just passing it on, as it does affect my area in the central plains within a 2 day threat. I am a transplant from the mid Atlantic forum, and my heart is always with this forum. I pass relevant info.

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I think recent verification scores (per source, woj) have the 12z gfs at day 5 behind the JMA FYI. Sad. Once again doesn’t mean the gfs is wrong. I like how it’s trending for you guys, up here in Philly best chance is for the ULL to spit out some flakes, but I’m rooting for you guys cause I’d gladly chase a strong coastal.

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I think recent verification scores (per source, woj) have the 12z gfs behind the JMA FYI. Sad. Once again doesn’t mean the gfs is wrong. I like how it’s trending for you guys, up here in Philly best chance is for the ULL to spit out some flakes, but I’m rooting for you guys cause I’d gladly chase a strong coastal.

adrian woj does weather model verifications too?

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 13 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2

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1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted

BLUF, use current model data with caution....

"All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with.

Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution."

From Gilbert Sebenste

Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other. 

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Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!!

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13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

LWX is favoring suppression in their afd fwiw.

Go with persistence. Mount Holly has favored this all along, but sort of caved to the models the last couple days.

I never really bought into the more amped/warmer looks. But who am I to oppose the preponderance of model guidance lol. Problem is even suppressed/colder = weak pos, so no one wins.

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Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!!
Webb has been wrong on everything since November

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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meh...where is the precip. it caved to the euro. Will be a disaster by 00z(actually already is)

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Ignoring how weird the surface panels are (GFS being GFS with thermals hopefully??).. the QPF isn't bad. Not a 3" QPF bomb like 0z and 6z but yeah more believable 

gfs-deterministic-ma-precip_24hr_inch-1878400.thumb.png.6aed125f2f14e57b2ff21cae63d1a995.png

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