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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs.

It seems like forever away. I know it's not but, with the way this winter has gone, especially with modeling, and then just how it's been since 2016 since a legit storm, and the fact the area of snow is so small with this one, it just seems like so many things can and will go wrong in the next several days.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It seems like forever away. I know it's not but, with the way this winter has gone, especially with modeling, and then just how it's been since 2016 since a legit storm, and the fact the area of snow is so small with this one, it just seems like so many things can and will go wrong in the next several days.

Yeah, it’s still nearly 6 days away so expectations should be tempered. As @psuhoffman has said, it looks like a fairly narrow north-south extent of snow, so very conceivable someone in the region could get screwed. I think suppression (6z gfs like?) is probably the most likely failure mode.

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Lots of Highs to the North, that's a new thing !

And, a train of disturbances getting ready to move East . 

 

image.png.c190ae6dfbdb7594a188ee80eabeb657.png

 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

 

If you don't succeed try,  try again. 

Sooner or later we hopefully score. 

 

 

 

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The 06z EPS is definitely more amped and further north. I'm south of the 0c 850s at 144. Not a fan of that

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

What did the euro itself show at the end of its run? It runs to 144 correct?

Only to 90

Eps to 144

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased.

 

 

Duh it's only out to 144. The back edge is just barely coming into view just then.

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased.

90352CFC-3CF7-4566-A3D0-03176DD0FFB8.png

2B975BD0-A7F0-4BFD-91CD-FAD45C5ACA9F.png

Is the storm completely finished by 144?

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

No, but the temps are above freezing upstairs at hour 144 

FDD10709-1236-43CF-8528-9E1034357CAB.png

not for all of us :bike:

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55 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control takes the primary into Pittsburgh but we stay firmly in the cad wedge regardless.  Snow to mix verbatim 

I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain.  The entire DC area gets no snow...again. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain.  The entire DC area gets no 

All rain ?  6z ?Your looking at a different run then me  I guess . Definitely frozen for i95 on nw . Verbatim end of run still has surface near freezing even in the cities.  Obviously not all snow .

 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

All rain ?  6z ?Your looking at a different run then me  I guess . Definitely frozen for i95 on nw . Verbatim end of run still has surface near freezing even in the cities.  Obviously not all snow .

 

It’s no snow in DC. There is a warm layer at 850 that never gets south of about Baltimore to Leesburg. Anywhere south of that line is pretty much all Ice or rain. Those 2 are the same to me  (I have no interest in ice) so I don’t bother to dig into that but it’s definitely no snow that run in DC. Yes some freezing rain. 

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@losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip.
D57DE37B-567D-46FE-841E-6CA4360C8382.thumb.png.7e7d908203485a8aa08818771f116076.png

And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run.
A6D8158D-4F60-444C-AA74-68F675412E29.thumb.png.d79cab74930c38ec8ff24d63498377ae.png

This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through.  Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol  

remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 
 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip.
D57DE37B-567D-46FE-841E-6CA4360C8382.thumb.png.7e7d908203485a8aa08818771f116076.png

And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run.
A6D8158D-4F60-444C-AA74-68F675412E29.thumb.png.d79cab74930c38ec8ff24d63498377ae.png

This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through.  Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol  

remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 
 

Well the +12 850's in South Carolina don't bode well for their historic snowstorm

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip.
 

And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run.
 

This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through.  Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol  

remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 
 

you being fringed on the mix-line is good at this range. ill take it. 

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Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble?

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4 minutes ago, Ajb said:

Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble?

Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z runs will be telling.:yikes:

Lol at flipping from suppression to warm layer worries...but the fact is both have to be a legit concern and the real culprit is the terrifyingly pathetic lack of true cold despite a freaking textbook perfect setup for a mid Atlantic snowstorm in absolute prime climo.  We can’t blame pac puke this time. As I pointed out yesterday everything went right and this airmass was seeded from the Arctic. But it’s just not that cold.   But the result is a double bind. The flow is perfect but that means it’s somewhat suppressive. So we can’t work with a really weak wave that doesn’t pump any ridging because that threatens being squashed.  But without a deep cold airmass any wave that does amplify threatens to press a warm layer too far north. The area that gets good snow isn’t nearly as expansive as it should be in this setup.  We could definitely still score here because this is a textbook perfect setup for a DC snowstorm. But it’s frustratingly more difficult then it should be given how good this setup is. 
 

Im out of ideas wrt temps. Everything went exactly the way we needed. Got the epo ridge to go up and cut off the puke. Got Canada seeded with air from the Arctic not the pac. And it’s still just not cold enough. 

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