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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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18z snow mean..

513099255_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2234800(1).thumb.png.c764d8fc6599eee65cbabefa92ce101f.png

Compared to 12z.. Precip for these panels sucks to compare because it's only 24 hour intervals on WxBell, but the snow mean should suffice

186268599_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2234800(2).thumb.png.1ed066e74211383ec95feb5fed6329d0.png

There's a word for this but I can't seem to find it... anyone?

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7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Assuming this can somehow rival 2016, did the Euro lead the way on that one? And at what point did euro and GFS both go mega solutions together? 90 hours out?

Euro saw the storm as soon as it came in day 10 range. It was iffy on temps for a couple runs though. But it was pretty locked in on the general setup and track from day 10 all the way in. Had one hiccup run that gave us northerners a scare but that was it. 

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I like the gfs

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No politics. This is your only warning. 

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17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z snow mean..

513099255_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2234800(1).thumb.png.c764d8fc6599eee65cbabefa92ce101f.png

Compared to 12z.. Precip for these panels sucks to compare because it's only 24 hour intervals on WxBell, but the snow mean should suffice

186268599_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2234800(2).thumb.png.1ed066e74211383ec95feb5fed6329d0.png

There's a word for this but I can't seem to find it... anyone?

What’s it start with 

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I would actually feel better being east with this one if you want to get into the CCB. Watch the progression on the GFS. If that ends up the worst case scenario DC still gets into the coastal when it gets tugged west. If the GFS jumps just a couple of hours sooner and a little further south it is a complete beatdown. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

I would actually feel better being east with this one if you want to get into the CCB. Watch the progression on the GFS. If that ends up the worst case scenario DC still gets into the coastal when it gets tugged west. If the GFS jumps just a couple of hours sooner and a little further south it is a complete beatdown. 

I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm.  I'm going with climo.  I think we'll be in a sweet spot.  There is always secondary banding on the periphery.  EZF isn't jacking lol

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm.  I'm going with climo.  I think we'll be in a sweet spot.  There is always secondary banding on the periphery.  EZF isn't jacking lol

We will get the better ratio's :)

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

18z Euro runs to 120 or 90? 

90

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

18z Euro runs to 120 or 90? 

Think the 18z EPS is 144...ninja-ed...I can’t win 

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Just now, SnowDreamer said:

correct

Jaydreb called it first..he wins..he always wins..he’s a winner

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For those of you trying to remember how the model runs in the lead up to 1/2016 looked, this forecast review article from the CWG has links to their articles starting from 8 days before the storm. There are quite a few individual model runs referenced throughout:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/25/the-forecast-for-snowzilla-was-stellar-in-almost-every-way/

 

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4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

For those of you trying to remember how the model runs in the lead up to 1/2016 looked, this forecast review article from the CWG has links to their articles starting from 8 days before the storm. There are quite a few individual model runs referenced throughout:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/25/the-forecast-for-snowzilla-was-stellar-in-almost-every-way/

 

Despite this discrete setup, I think we'll see more oscillation in the models than 2016.  Globals don't handle La Nina as well.  

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Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out?  I am trying to remember.  I do remember some sick snow maps.  But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out?  I am trying to remember.  I do remember some sick snow maps.  But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level 

The euro was mostly a rock. The GFS was all over the place. Especially close in 

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6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Despite this discrete setup, I think we'll see more oscillation in the models than 2016.  Globals don't handle La Nina as well.  

Trying to remember when the euro locked in on that March 2018 storm. 

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I recall the 2016 storm was one of the easiest forecasts I ever made. It was pretty solid from a week out and never really budged, although I think we all expected it to. 

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out?  I am trying to remember.  I do remember some sick snow maps.  But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level 

I remember Euro from 160 hrs out hardly budged 

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Just now, SnowDreamer said:

I recall the 2016 storm was one of the easiest forecasts I ever made. It was pretty solid from a week out and never really budged, although I think we all expected it to. 

There was indeed a fairly strong pushback from people on the forecasts...forecasts which ended up being underdone for most.  I was told by one client that it never snows 30" in Virginia. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Trying to remember when the euro locked in on that March 2018 storm. 

As far as I remember, the actual costal feature of that storm was found pretty far in, maybe like 3-4 days beforehand. Before that the WAA was looking like the main event, and it continued to trend warmer, putting DC out of the game before the costal part got latched onto. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

The euro was mostly a rock. The GFS was all over the place. Especially close in 

I recall the euro kept putting those insane amounts in N VA around 180 hours out. It may have had a run or 2 where it was south because I remember sitting here in Philly worrying about being fringed a few times, but over and over the signal was there for ccb snows in that region. Wasn’t until the NAM came in range that snow chances increased into Philly burbs and nyc...this is two euro runs in a row with a heavy area over N VA let’s start a trend 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

There was indeed a fairly strong pushback from people on the forecasts...forecasts which ended up being underdone for most.  I was told by one client that it never snows 30" in Virginia. 

We've had the rug pulled out from under us so many times that it's wise to under forecast snow. Especially outside of the mountains.

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

In my untrained non meteorologist opinion (shocking I know), we seem to be settling in on a decent snow event. The only thing that needs to be worked out in the coming days is if we’re getting SECS, MECS, HECS, BECS, or TEXMEX. :damage:

 

I’ll see myself out now.

Don't forget the CECS (Catastrophic East Coast Storm) - arguably before or after BECS.  

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

We've had the rug pulled out from under us so many times that it's wise to under forecast snow. Especially outside of the mountains.

No doubt.  Under forecast is always the safe bet. But some people were convinced it would be under a foot which was too far under. 

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10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out?  I am trying to remember.  I do remember some sick snow maps.  But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level 

I distinctly remember checking the discussion and model pbp in here the Saturday afternoon before the storm hit (about 7-8 days out). At that time it was clear a significant storm was in the offing and it seemed like all major models "snapped in place." Thereafter it was a matter of various details... Would it be a top HECS, would we mix for a time etc. But it was clear at least a significant snow event was there. Of course that was a Nino and STJ on roids and a perfectly placed block so the setup was very clear-cut as was the models' handling of that. 

ETA: @Deck Pic pretty well stated it, especially concerning the Euro. I thought the GFS/GEFS did well starting early on too but that could be incorrect recollection on my part. There was also a wacky 00Z Euro run right the night before that cut precip amounts for some reason, which momentarily caused alarm I seem to recall. 

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