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January Long Range Disco Thread

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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is a nice psychological boost.   But it changes every 12 hours and has no support.   Just this once, can we get something to f*cking stick

This is 3 days in a row the Euro has been sniffing something out on the 21st.

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun

JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range.

Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real.

Hopefully its cookin' up something good for us.

see what I did there?

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Doesn't matter. Hug the living piss outta that shit bro!

For the record, weatherbug sniffed that out first.  I'm really liking a threat withing d10.  Might have to mount the blade on the Muck Truck.  

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence. 

He already knew that....just needed to read a post sayin it so he could tell his friends.......

 

I read it on the internet.

 

Alright JI, I'm done for now.  You got your blue for at least 6 hrs (on a couple models mind you). 

Relish the time my friend.    

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range.

Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough 

I googled that pork thingy youre makin.  

What time shall we be over?  Sounds delish...

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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Does this storm get pushed further south from what the Euro is modeling with the block?

IMO ops are still trying to correct w/ the blocking, but to your point, look at the last 2 storms and how they looked a week ago vs where they ended up (shredder).  Indicies suggest suppression is a valid worry, but until you stop seeing systems headed for Chicago, and everything going under us....then i'd start to worry.  I think next couple days start to shed light on strength of NAO/EPO/AO and what it translates to here in the MA. 

FWIW we all are better positioned than interior NE, as its frozen popcorn farts for the forseeable future for them. 

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I googled that pork thingy youre makin.  

What time shall we be over?  Sounds delish...

Stuffing I made was baby kale, butternut squash, caramelized onion, toasted pecan, craisins, pears, and blue cheese. Back to wx....

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Thanks Will.  Lets hope we can get this under 150hrs or so.  That seems to be the fall apart point. 

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2 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed?  When I look at this, I think it is going to cut.  Thoughts?

image.thumb.png.c862123eae28bcbe436f2112e4be7a38.png

image.thumb.png.7a3b97f2066a42d10c622ba260c36014.png

Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there.

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3 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there.

Pretty warm out in front-- despite the NAO and lower heights near 50/50. IT's a timing issue where cold air is coming at the same time as the storm. Could end up 300 miles north or south depending on timing. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Euro OP definitely has some support from the eps for next Thursday/Friday.

Control has a big hit just to the south. 

Can you post the control?

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

 

458C088F-2349-43ED-87A2-E8F4F4C38E63.png

And there is your gradient pattern overunning look. Juicy and west to east. We can get some of our biggest thumps with these. Let's keep it going!

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59 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed?  When I look at this, I think it is going to cut.  Thoughts?

 

Here's the ensemble 850 temps during the peak of precip (198hrs)

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-t850-1252000.thumb.png.9261e800a1e55536bd536e297c2f129a.png

Seems pretty darn borderline, however, here is the same panel at 0z

1898616275_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-t850-1252000(1).thumb.png.b31637c064373ba7e71554247aaf1f30.png

Even with the SER flexing itself ahead of time, the 850s still are manageable. Surface temps aren't the best, but it's still not a bad place to be this far out. This seems like a characteristic of overrunning, no? Borderline 850s and a thump of moisture. Certainly beats looking at a South Carolina bullseye at this length out, at least imo. 

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I don't really care about temps at this point (when they are that borderline).  We can't even keep a storm from getting shredded lately so I'd rather see a potent system/moisture and worry about borderline temps closer in when models pick up on thermals more accurately.

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23 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That southern look is just where I want it right now.  

How’s that worked out recently?

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Just now, flsch22 said:

is the control run the same as the mean?

No. It has the identical inputs as the operational euro but run at the resolution of the ensembles. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How’s that worked out recently?

Nothing's worked at all for the past two years to the day so I'm sure it'll be gone by morning.  But it's on weatherbug so I'm getting the feeling this time is different.

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