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January 2021

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The other thing people need to realize, is that we are going to have events that don’t work out. It’s not easy to get something to work out favorably, vs unfavorably if you look at it from a probability standpoint. Much easier for things not to go right, even in a favorable pattern. A favorable pattern just means the odds of that happening, are lower. Just keep things in perspective. 

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing people need to realize, is that we are going to have events that don’t work out. It’s not easy to get something to work out favorably, vs unfavorably if you look at it from a probability standpoint. Much easier for things not to go right, even in a favorable pattern. A favorable pattern just means the odds of that happening, are lower. Just keep things in perspective. 

Great points.  
 

It was just Thursday night with the weeklies looking crazy good and the ensembles looking crazy good, it was hard not to have Bratwurst jammed in our throat looking at that porn.   
 

We back to reality on this 2nd day of ‘21.   And it’s all good. 
 

Let’s Roll. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Great points.  
 

It was just Thursday night with the weeklies looking crazy good and the ensembles looking crazy good, it was hard not to have Bratwurst jammed in our throat looking at that porn.   
 

We back to reality on this 2nd day of ‘21.   And it’s all good. 
 

Let’s Roll. 

But things still do look very good so keep greasing the bratwurst.

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Well ... I'm not going to sugarcoat it, or try to spin it or rationalize it, the last 24 hours of runs are frustrating for winter drama/storm enthusiasts ( ...which is really more like 'model cinema enthusiasts' .. )

I'm sort of kicking myself for not bringing this up two days ago - kind of obvious... I think I might have mentioned it (certainly thought about it) but I just didn't bother to emphasize the aspect.  We're lacking isohypsic gradient ... when for 10 years, we had way too much of it!  ..Ironically, but these 500 mb charted features are just not deep enough.  They are shallow by January climatology.  You're talking closed or quasi closed(ing) features that are 540+ DM dz ... I've seen June troughs that deep wooo!

That's indicative of a mild 500 mb (relative to both season and what's going on around them)..  The 500 mb wind velocities reflect that, circuitously wending  around said features on the order of 50 .. 80 kts.   Just a month ago, the ambient was almost twice that!  Forget the S/W...  Anyway, these S/W and features are lacking mechanical power.   

See, re this 1/4 system in the foreground ...it's not helping its track positions.. You get a torsional feedback that resists its 'drift momentum' from more strength, because deeper anchors sooner.  This thing is paltry ...it's closing one isohypses... and the associated sfc low is a terrifying 996 mbs...so yeah.. it's drifting out. 

The other aspect is just giga motions associated with the NAO handling in the models.  Nuances in the total structure of the NAO as it blossoms its block over the western limb is a bit shaky in the last 24 hours. The GFS runs are hem-hawing and trying to make it a S based NAO ... not sure that has the same "slowing" kinematic influence on this 1/4 thing.  The Euro still has it more D. Str. however ..and yet it still sends this thing east into taunt distances.. I think really we could benefit from a stronger input to help anchor this sooner. That was more suggestive four days ago ... but, since...  You know, we've been consummately correcting late mid range systems less amplified as they near in time - maybe remember that.

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, it's definitely the lack of a decent isohypsotic gradient... good lord I hate when that happens! 

Well.. ( ha ) it's not totally over ... I mean, we still have to actually get thru January 4 ...so we'll see -

It's just the 'vicissitudes'  - 'nother fun word - of the last 24 hours that are unfortunate of the models, seems like those could be related to this thing just being weak and not having enough power to situate itself in space and time.   More I think about it... we really have been seeing things get corrected weaker passing from late mid ranges into nearer terms, and it sort of fits this... The earlier runs had more impact ... the system corrects subtly weaker inside of 72 hours...out she goes.

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, it's definitely the lack of a decent isohypsotic gradient... good lord I hate when that happens! 

All he means is there isn't any arctic air around to enhance deformation and lift....maybe relatively underwhelming cyclogen.....the value of arctic air extends beyond simple thermals ie precip type. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well.. ( ha ) it's not totally over ... I mean, we still have to actually get thru January 4 ...so we'll see -

It's just the 'vicissitudes'  - 'nother fun word - of the last 24 hours that are unfortunate of the models, seems like those could be related to this thing just being weak and not having enough power to situate itself in space and time.   More I think about it... we really have been seeing things get corrected weaker passing from late mid ranges into nearer terms, and it sort of fits this... The earlier runs had more impact ... the system corrects subtly weaker inside of 72 hours...out she goes.

Yea, people are setting themselves up for dissapointment if they are expecting a Jan 2011 redux, but hope I'm wrong.

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Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either...

Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow!  The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again.  Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end.   Better hope the Pac reorients or heh -

doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there.   hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... 

I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone.  That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here...  lol 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either...

Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow!  The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again.  Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end.   Better hope the Pac reorients or heh -

doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there.   hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... 

I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone.  That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here...  lol 

I would not at all be suprised if the NAO is overdone later in January....we need to watch for that. I actually think the PAC should start to improve, though. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Never ever fails.. when things look bleak Tip finds good things to say.. when things look good he finds ways to ruin everything 

oh god...what did I say -

look man ... I was doin' other shit today and thought oh yeah... Open web -->  wish I did not open up the web. 

I don't think I'm making anything up when looking at this shit - sucks asshole for storm/winter drama seekers. 

I think what happens is ...the tenor over does it in either direction as part of crowd physics. It's human... don't sweat it.  But, the fervor does tend to out pace the indicators, where as I tend to ignore that sort of thing.  It's just in my nature ...so, it may seem like I'm 'trying' to compensate for a mood or something, but I'm pretty much consistently being honest as much as I can.. If it fits the tenor of the hour, it fits... if it doesn't ... oops

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not at all be suprised if the NAO is overdone later in January....we need to watch for that. I actually think the PAC should start to improve, though. 

Lol... know what?

I'm already f'n sick of that damn thing - ...

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41 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, it's definitely the lack of a decent isohypsotic gradient... good lord I hate when that happens! 

I googled it and this came up:

 

It looks like there aren't many great matches for your search,

One of Tip's post from September came up too, I got nothing.

Edit: Thanks Ray

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh god...what did I say -

look man ... I was doin' other shit today and thought oh yeah... Open web -->  wish I did not open up the web. 

I don't think I'm making anything up when looking at this shit - sucks asshole for storm/winter drama seekers. 

I think what happens is ...the tenor over does it in either direction as part of crowd physics. It's human... don't sweat it.  But, the fervor does tend to out pace the indicators, where as I tend to ignore that sort of thing.  It's just in my nature ...so, it may seem like I'm 'trying' to compensate for a mood or something, but I'm pretty much consistently being honest as much as I can.. If it fits the tenor of the hour, it fits... if it doesn't ... oops

Nothing wrong man. Just saying 

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing wrong man. Just saying 

 

Lol...Tip says no..not good(Sucks assholes actually lol) for winter enthusiasts.  
 

Who to believe? 

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9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I googled it and this came up:

 

It looks like there aren't many great matches for your search,

One of Tip's post from September came up too, I got nothing.

Edit: Thanks Ray

oh ... talk about a dyslexic break - the word is 'isohypsic'

Wasn't aware I was typing it that other way...  Oops sorry.   But, ...lol, my guess is that word also doesn't mean much to people.

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Lots of words you use don’t mean much to most here...in fact we’ve never seen or heard of many of them to be honest.  
 

The crazy thing is, I never know if you’re typing things wrong, or I just don’t know the word?  Cuz many of them I’ve never ever seen before. But that’s just me. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lots of words you use don’t mean much to most here...in fact we’ve never seen or heard of many of them to be honest.  
 

The crazy thing is, I never know if you’re typing things wrong, or I just don’t know the word?  Cuz many of them I’ve never ever seen before. But that’s just me. 

I don't know if that's entirely true ... you're making an assumption that groups people together, without knowing them ... My biggest problem is that I go to fast, and leave out prepositions here, or type words like 'now' when I meant 'not' ... or, jump to the next sentence before finishing... throwing off the reader.  I then have to run back along text and fix shit all the damn time - those cause distractions that don't lend to reading so, ... oh well

Keep in mind, also - I'm trying for discussion and opinion sharing among other Meteorologists - they know that sort of 'vernacular' just fine.  

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know if that's entirely true ... you're making an assumption that groups people together, without knowing them ... My biggest problem is that I go to fast, and leave out prepositions here, or type words like 'now' when I meant 'not' ... and have to run back along text and fix shit all the time - these distractions don't lend to reading so,, ... oh well

Keep in mind, also - I'm trying for discussion and opinion sharing among other Meteorologists - they know that sort of 'vernacular' just fine.  

 

Fair enough. 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh ... talk about a dyslexic break - the word is 'isohypsic'

Wasn't aware I was typing it that other way...  Oops sorry.   But, ...lol, my guess is that word also doesn't mean much to people.

It's good, I learned something today, it's one of the reasons I hang around.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either...

Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow!  The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again.  Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end.   Better hope the Pac reorients or heh -

doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there.   hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... 

I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone.  That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here...  lol 

What are you talking about Tip?. The GFS op models?. If so they can't handle the blocking going on. The NAO west based block is going nowhere's and the pacific is improving a lot too. 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_39.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everything looks pretty good. As long as you aren’t expecting 2011 or 2015 you’ll hopefully be happy. 

Well put.   
 

But Nobody was expecting ’11 or ‘15 at those times either....you don’t expect those, they just happen on rare occasions when the pattern is conducive.  That’s about all you can say. 

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