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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually looks like a chance for SHSN and maybe a squall around this aftn. Too bad norlun went south, but I guess the HRRR was the most bullish when others were south too. I thought maybe the s coast could get more, but looks like it is juuuuuuust offshore.

I'll keep my fingers crossed....hope against hope.

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06z EPS came pretty far north with 1/26.....should be noted that the 00z Ukie was wayyy north. Can't sell that one yet.

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I could care less what drunk Ukie has, but the 6z EPS definitely looked like it could deliver. You could see in the beginning it had a more concentrated s/w down in the SW US and was trying to force the confluence near the lakes a little more north. 

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

26th is gone IMO....unless you count the norlun unicorn. Storm is a whiff.

1/29 has some hope.

0.34% chance

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3 hours ago, RDRY said:

Can't recall such a long stretch of winter when there's no strong systems really anywhere outside the northwest since last year. Even the long-range globals have given up inventing bombs. It's like the atmosphere is starved or something.

 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS came pretty far north with 1/26.....should be noted that the 00z Ukie was wayyy north. Can't sell that one yet.

I could see it perhaps impacting south of the pike, but I have a very hard time buying significant snowfall up my way from that. Like I said, I think she gone for siggy snow beyond s coast, LI and NYC, though.

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Lightning Explorer real time

Lightning is being observed all over the western Atlantic Ocean over the Gulf Stream.  Our storm is down to 1010mb or less.  Storm is likely to explode in the coming hours.  Bombogenesis was expected, but this storm seems to be organizing faster than modeled and closer to the benchmark.  Watch as the booming comma-head develops it will inch westward until the bombing starts and the precipitation shield shrinks.  Models were lazy on the development phase happening right now, with NYC receiving less than an inch of snow.

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What a boring winter for alot of people in the northeast especially near the coast.  The NAO and AO have been negative for a while and nothing to show for it. The favorable pattern for this month has turned into a joke.

 

Give me a - EPO and - AO pattern anyday  over a - AO and - NAO pattern.

 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see it perhaps impacting south of the pike, but I have a very hard time buying significant snowfall up my way from that. Like I said, I think she gone for siggy snow beyond s coast, LI and NYC, though.

South definitely favored. Still a lot of time though being 6+ days out.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What a boring winter for alot of people in the northeast especially near the coast.  The NAO and AO have been negative for a while and nothing to show for it. The favorable pattern for this month has turned into a joke.

 

Give me a - EPO and - AO pattern anyday  over a - AO and - NAO pattern.

 

This looks like it would favor NE as we head into feb/March...

199EB24B-6E45-432F-BA30-C00694DFFC94.png

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This storm for the 26th looks more like a SWFE to a  which usually trends north. We finally have blocking on our side so this will not get as far north. Question becomes where is the fine line.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Persistence. When the weather gets into these long term patterns , it can stay that way for extended periods. Unfortunately for SNE, it happened during most of the winter 

Not actually a terrible awareness/ ..surmise - 

I was extolling through descriptive flare just yesterday, when a given region comes under anomalies ...said anomalies can at times hammer relentlessly.  Then, when said region has actually been beaten to death, losses incalculable ...THAT's when the anomaly starts hammering - 

The Earth makes sure.  It's various systems are abusive ...cruel, without remorse.   - to expect remorse from a 'persistence' scenario is an anthropomorphic fallacy - obviously .. goes without saying.  

But in 2015, we were being hammered the other way - few people complained or thought to introspection on the matter, did they. Ha   

"Weather" we are being hammered for 'good' or 'bad' is entirely a human distinction. There's no agency deciding who gets what, poetically.  It just so happens to be, since we are homogeneously encased in an atmosphere that by and large will delve ubiquitously given enough time, it does in the instant seem unjust. And, arithmetic of averages hides the iniquity of the distribution.  ...so to speak.  

But the forces governing this particular cold season's patternization have diced their way into a kind of 'stuck' scenario.  These ridge nodes and blocking at 60 N, whether by formal SSW anchoring or some quasi -variant therefrom, they are not likely moving.  They have situated in a proof that the -NAO was/is never the snow savior assigned to it - that I have had on-line arguments for decades over ...get proven right, and then have to go through the debate all over again when the next year comes around and the J.Q. Poster starts chatty-Kathy louting 'NAO NAO NAO' all over again... and again and fallacy again...   Hopefully, this year will at last get that lesson across - NO, THE NAO WAS NEVER GOOD FOR US.  It's better for western Europe... Just like the -EPO is better for us ;)  You can get into to narrow ranges where it may be more favorable; for starters, it has to be in modality.  By virtue of 'narrow' that means rare ..that means, not good for us by standardized convention and f'ing logic!  Aside from the mathematics that a changing NAO domains is caused by non-linear influence by wave dispersion downstream of the Pacific - giving a faux effect of forcing coming from the NAO domain. Which means..the 'storm' is caused ... by the Pacific.

The more I think about there where it is situated stuff, I start to go 'mm'  - if it is East biased, you could philosophically argue that it's not an NAO for us anyway.  So that's kind of denial of truth distinction there. 

That all aside... This is probably about as negative wave ( destructively ..) interfering as is mechanically possible in the natural physics of the fluidic atmosphere.  Label a region ...I can tell you exactly why it's wrongly oriented as an exertion someplace else... at all scales and dimensions -  it is what it is.  

I don't believe Jan 29 has any hope of manifesting more impact than we've already seen hallucinated by machine enhancing - ...The suppressive nature of the total flow construct is needs to change - the western limb of the NAO has a ridge node that given typical R-wave spread, does not permit a cyclone genesis/transit S of the mid Atlantic.  There are anomalies relative to anomalies ...yup - that's about the only way here...  OR, the systemic structure needs a dry-eraser board swipe, something seriously badly, in lieu of a whole new paradigm. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not actually a terrible awareness/ ..surmise - 

I was extolling through descriptive flare just yesterday, when a given region comes under anomalies ...said anomalies can at times hammer relentlessly.  Then, when said region has actually been beaten to death, losses incalculable ...THAT's when the anomaly starts hammering - 

The Earth makes sure.  It's various systems are abusive ...cruel, without remorse.   - to expect remorse from a 'persistence' scenario is an anthropomorphic fallacy - obviously .. goes without saying.  

But in 2015, we were being hammered the other way - few people complained or thought to introspection on the matter, did they. Ha   

"Weather" we are being hammered for 'good' or 'bad' is entirely a human distinction. There's no agency deciding who gets what, poetically.  It just so happens to be, since we are homogeneously encased in an atmosphere that by and large will delve ubiquitously given enough time, it does in the instant seem unjust. And, arithmetic of averages hides the iniquity of the distribution.  ...so to speak.  

But the forces governing this particular cold season's patternization have diced their way into a kind of 'stuck' scenario.  These ridge nodes and blocking at 60 N, whether by formal SSW anchoring or some quasi -variant therefrom, they are not likely moving.  They have situated in a proof that the -NAO was/is never the snow savior assigned to it - that I have had on-line arguments for decades over ...get proven right, and then have to go through the debate all over again when the next year comes around and the J.Q. Poster starts chatty-Kathy louting 'NAO NAO NAO' all over again... and again and fallacy again...   Hopefully, this year will at last get that lesson across - NO, THE NAO WAS NEVER GOOD FOR US.  It's better for western Europe... Just like the -EPO is better for us ;)  You can get into to narrow ranges where it may be more favorable; for starters, it has to be in modality.  By virtue of 'narrow' that means rare ..that means, not good for us by standardized convention and f'ing logic!  Aside from the mathematics that a changing NAO domains is caused by non-linear influence by wave dispersion downstream of the Pacific - giving a faux effect of forcing coming from the NAO domain. Which means..the 'storm' is caused ... by the Pacific.

The more I think about there where it is situated stuff, I start to go 'mm'  - if it is East biased, you could philosophically argue that it's not an NAO for us anyway.  So that's kind of denial of truth distinction there. 

That all aside... This is probably about as negative wave ( destructively ..) interfering as is mechanically possible in the natural physics of the fluidic atmosphere.  Label a region ...I can tell you exactly why it's wrongly oriented as an exertion someplace else... at all scales and dimensions -  it is what it is.  

I don't believe Jan 29 has any hope of manifesting more impact than we've already seen hallucinated by machine enhancing - ...The suppressive nature of the total flow construct is needs to change - the western limb of the NAO has a ridge node that given typical R-wave spread, does not permit a cyclone genesis/transit S of the mid Atlantic.  There are anomalies relative to anomalies ...yup - that's about the only way here...  OR, the systemic structure needs a dry-eraser board swipe, something seriously badly, in lieu of a whole new paradigm. 

 

I think the elevating heights in the vicinity of the rockies could make a diff. for 1/29..if that verifies. Its been consistent.

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44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a boring winter for alot of people in the northeast especially near the coast.  The NAO and AO have been negative for a while and nothing to show for it. The favorable pattern for this month has turned into a joke.

 

Give me a - EPO and - AO pattern anyday  over a - AO and - NAO pattern.

 

You were a -NAO Worshipper, and As I said yesterday...be careful what you wish for. You won’t wish for a -NAO Ever again.  It isn’t and was never the holy grail.  You need other things to go along with it...a marriage of sorts.  We haven’t had those other things. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You were a -NAO Worshipper, and As I said yesterday...be careful what you wish for. You won’t wish for a -NAO Ever again.  It isn’t abd was never the holy grail.  You need other things to go along with it...a marriage of sorts.  We haven’t had those other things. 

Regardless of the pattern or state of any index, at the end of the day you need the shortwave dust to settle favorably, and it has not. This pattern has been flawed, but it very easily could have been a good stretch with one break or two. I don't think the NAO had anything to do with the fact that the southwest energy has always ejected at the most inopportune times, and the shortwave spacing has always been unfavorable...much of the latter is due to la nina IMO......active train of Pacific SWs increases the chances of having wave spacing be a prevalent problem throughout the season. Of course, now we have a pretty stout and static RNA, which makes it very difficult for the N stream to amplify in the east.

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