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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It is risky business to bet against the RGEM in any form in a damming scenario. 

I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. 

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12z gfs also coming in colder. You can see the dip in the isobars to the southwest with precip incoming and over the area. Bend hand toward southwestern SC.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. 

Yeah even a quarter of what that shows is ice storm warning criteria for almost everybody. 

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27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. 

I agree it definitely runs colder, and sometimes by a lot. At the very least, it seems to run 2-4°F too cold on average. RGEM forecast low for tonight here is 15, which is 6 degrees cooler than the NWS forecast and around 10 degrees cooler than all other models except the Canadian. I have a hard time believing we get to 15 here, but we shall see…

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10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Buddy1987 how you feeling man? Lol

I feel good!! I talked with Disc last night about it. He seemed to feel pretty good as well. We are always worried about some sneaky warm layer but based on most guidance we remain all snow until precip is basically getting ready to shut off and we get dryslotted. I would feel good saying 8-12” for ROA right now. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I feel good!! I talked with Disc last night about it. He seemed to feel pretty good as well. We are always worried about some sneaky warm layer but based on most guidance we remain all snow until precip is basically getting ready to shut off and we get dryslotted. I would feel good saying 8-12” for ROA right now. 

I agree with that number. I'm hoping for 2-4 here before it changes to ICE

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11 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian with another slight push south with the wedge. Little more pronounced and temps colder this run.

 

Any further push south would be great!

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Just now, WXNewton said:

Not sure about the accuracy of these short range models but freezing rain is pretty far south. 

Screenshot_20210129-113231.png

I saw that myself and I've done this dance before. It wouldnt shock me to see that be correct. 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

I dont think this is a cold bias sort of situation with the canadian, it is simply holding the damming in longer than the other modelling. 

Agreed... I feel the globals are headed towards those solutions... 

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39 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The RGEM absolutely crushes 85N in the triad and triangle to the state line in Virginia with an awful ice storm. 

That run looks funny to me.

3-4"+ of rain along the NC/VA border. With a inch + of ice.

 

Looking at Nam & Wrf. 

The CAD might be colder and deeper than what the models are picking up atm.

One thing I am noticing between the two. Is the parent HP is well into Canada. But there is a strong ridge axis extending well south.

So there is a possibility of the models not picking up on a secondary HP some where around PA,MD,Va.

6z Nam did have a secondary in VA.

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Just now, FLweather said:

That run looks funny to me.

3-4"+ of rain along the NC/VA border. With a inch + of ice.

 

Looking at Nam & Wrf. 

The CAD might be colder and deeper than what the models are picking up atm.

One thing I am noticing between the two. Is the parent HP is well into Canada. But there is a strong ridge axis extending well south.

So there is a possibility of the models not picking up on a secondary HP some where around PA,MD,Va.

6z Nam did have a secondary in VA.

It's way, way too much QPF but even if you take a quarter of that, it's nasty. 

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RAH is unimpressed as of 0315 this morning. Does everyone agree with them now that they've had more models to review?


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

At the beginning of the extended forecast, an upper level low will
be near Chicago, with a surface low slightly south of the upper low.
The upper low will weaken as it shifts southeast. Meanwhile, the
surface low over the Midwest will fill as Miller B cyclogenesis
develops near the Carolinas, with a surface low somewhere off the
Norfolk coast by Monday morning.

By Sunday morning have removed any mention of snow from the
forecast, as it appears that the maximum temperature in the column
should be warm enough to melt any falling snow, so have simply gone
with rain or freezing rain around sunrise. By mid morning all
locations should have surface temperatures rise above freezing, and
precipitation should fall as rain for the rest of the day. There
will be a fair gradient in temperatures across the forecast area,
with the Triad remaining in the upper 30s while southern counties
will likely push into the 50s. The development of the coastal low
appears to be slightly farther east in the 00Z model runs than
previous runs, which should keep the bulk of Sunday night`s
precipitation a bit farther east. Still have likely pops primarily
to the east of I-95, where precipitation would fall as all rain.
However, any precipitation making its way into central North
Carolina from the decaying inland low should have enough cold air
that a slight chance of freezing rain or snow cannot be ruled out.

As the upper low continues tracking to the east, have put slight
chance pops back into the forecast on Monday to better collaborate
with neighboring offices, although the most widespread precipitation
will have already fallen the day before. A slight chance of
rain/snow will remain in the forecast Monday night, primarily north
and east of Raleigh. With both the upper and surface lows east of
the region by Tuesday morning, all precipitation will come to an end
with clearing skies Tuesday. Skies will remain clear Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with increasing clouds Wednesday night and Thursday
in advance of the next system. Temperatures will start the period
below normal and finally rise back to normal values by Thursday.

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8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It's way, way too much QPF but even if you take a quarter of that, it's nasty. 

The other RGEM difference appears to be the primary surface low is farther SW in extreme southern Indiana at hour 57 than other models.  It transfers a secondary in SC at hour 60 versus all the other guidance going Ohio to off the coast of OBX.  This makes the NC experience colder, while heavy precip is still falling.

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