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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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@BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way.

Edit: man really examining the backend of things as it gets cranking that ccb is gonna demolish someone. Verbatim I’d prolly flip to sheets of paper and 32.

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way.

12z GFS is still to warm though... its a heavy rain to snow scenario per GFS , I don't know what to make of it...

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way.

It brings about 3-5" here with much more just north near Lynchburg,  very tight gradient!

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9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS is still to warm though... its a heavy rain to snow scenario per GFS , I don't know what to make of it...

Honestly I don’t either. Normally if high is positioned correctly then I’d feel a lot better but in a sense there’s really nothing for the primary to push further north and east because the high is too far west to my liking and also allows WAA to flood over (tpv would really be the main saving grace and even that has been modeled to be all over the place). Really comes down to and this is if the ull can undercut us how dynamic it is and how quickly CAA can get going once winds switch in our favor and pump in that cold 1042HP

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

What I don't understand is why are the models showing a deformation band as rain? With all the cold air and the storm exploding... no way that's rain.

It won’t it’ll end up being a paste bomb if you take the gfs at literal face value 

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11 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The GFS keeps pushing south. One more push and most of NC is back in. 

More importantly the GEFS agrees with the gfs but in all actuality looks better IMO 

pretty impressive to see the mean of 4” up this way but even 40 corridor average of about 1.5”

E09B4D26-1E7F-46BB-A61C-B446BA5C56F9.png

44F8956F-B5A3-4617-8C74-C7B25A316E02.png

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Trends not looking great..  I blame La Nina for not getting any major cold air pushes...  Our cold air surges after a storm with the northerly flow, and then recovers back up to seasonal, which just isn't getting it done...  

We need a system like this to move through and set the stage and then another one to take a favorable track right on its heels.
We need arctic cold already in place or temperatures/dew points cold enough for the storm to generate its own cold air with wet bulb..  Neither looks possible (for now) with this system.

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I actually wasn't that discouraged by this suite and I think we live to see the next round. The outskirts of this forum (you could call it the highway 158 corridor, if that's a thing) are still flirting with the possibility of meaningful snow if you take some of today's runs verbatim. There were some subtle synoptic changes that I liked as well that caused storm tracks to either hold serve or inch southward. I'm not putting a stake in this yet.

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Looks like good trend on Euro toward the GFS. We really need a little spacing like I alluded to last night so the next storm has some room to breathe and be able to amplify rather than get pinched off. That happens should allow for a stronger system. 

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1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

I actually wasn't that discouraged by this suite and I think we live to see the next round. The outskirts of this forum (you could call it the highway 158 corridor, if that's a thing) are still flirting with the possibility of meaningful snow if you take some of today's runs verbatim. There were some subtle synoptic changes that I liked as well that caused storm tracks to either hold serve or inch southward. I'm not putting a stake in this yet.

So about a 15 mile shift for me. I’ll take it.

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