WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para lookin better then 12z for Sunday. Definitely a thread the needle but it's not far off from a light event. Surface is pretty warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Euro has official wind reversal much sooner than the GFS. GLOSea supports the Euro. Faster official SSWE would mean effects time line moved up. @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx GEFS & CFSv2 have 64 vertical levels, while ECMWF's ensemble has 91 and more of those are in the stratosphere (38 above 100 hPa vs. 24 in CFS). So, I anticipate ECMWF is on the right lines, as models with greater vertical resolution perform better (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030920…) [2/2] The ensemble-means of ECMWF extended, GEFS 35-day & CFSv2 all produce a major SSW during January - but they are really predicting different events, since while ECMWF reverses ~Jan 5, GEFS (Jan 12) & CFS (Jan 22) reverse much later! Which will be correct? [1/2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019. I finished with just under 7". I think Baltimore got shafted though. We did get shafted. Thanks for remembering us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 GFS classic could have been nice for Sunday. So close to a light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Judah thinks there might be some winter in N America by MLK day. Maybe by Feb for the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Judah thinks there might be some winter in N America by MLK day. Maybe by Feb for the east coast? We are now punting all of January??? I know our winters are generally backloaded, but even second half teams don't want to go into the locker room down without any points on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 ofc first comment was Ji 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: We are now punting all of January??? I know our winters are generally backloaded, but even second half teams don't want to go into the locker room down without any points on the board. Don't worry, we scored on our first drive, and while we've stagnated since, I'm sure that the halftime pep talk will spring us right back into action for the second half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: We are now punting all of January??? I know our winters are generally backloaded, but even second half teams don't want to go into the locker room down without any points on the board. lol depends on which one of the SPV doctors you want to believe. They all say something a little different. Just looking at the forecasted 50 and 500 mb height/temp anomaly alignment I would say we are coupled and primed for long term blocking. Just give me that massive west-based block at the end of the Euro run and hope the Pacific calms down a bit. I will leave the rest of the esoteric SPV voodoo stuff to the geeks to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, yoda said: ofc first comment was Ji I posted about this early this morning. I beat the expert to the punch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, yoda said: ofc first comment was Ji He's just making the rounds hoping someone tells him what he wants to hear. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: When you see Tropospheric vortices crawling around/trapped under the block, you know its legit. This is what we need. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 @CAPE @osfan24 I don’t think we’re kicking all of Jan. The SSW has actually already commenced. The wind reversal looks to happen around the 4th (I but the euro here, its adamant about it and it’s been far superior with the strat over the years) and the progression we’re seeing on ensembles matches analogs. Weeks 1-2 after a SSW look ehh but the cold anomalies really kick in week 3 and go ape week 4-5. That lines up with the look on ensembles mid month and gets us into good shape by the last week of January. On a side note Cohen and some others have said this most closely resembles the 2018 SSW. That happened mid February and the flip for us happened after that storm the first couple days of March. From then on it was a favorable pattern into April. If this SSW happens the first week of January that same timeline puts the favorable windows from about Jan 20-March 1. I don’t mind that. Give me that same 2018 pattern but centered on prime climo v March/April and let’s roll! 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE @osfan24 I don’t think we’re kicking all of Jan. The SSW has actually already commenced. The wind reversal looks to happen around the 4th (I but the euro here, its adamant about it and it’s been far superior with the strat over the years) and the progression we’re seeing on ensembles matches analogs. Weeks 1-2 after a SSW look ehh but the cold anomalies really kick in week 3 and go ape week 4-5. That lines up with the look on ensembles mid month and gets us into good shape by the last week of January. On a side note Cohen and some others have said this most closely resembles the 2018 SSW. That happened mid February and the flip for us happened after that storm the first couple days of March. From then on it was a favorable pattern into April. If this SSW happens the first week of January that same timeline puts the favorable windows from about Jan 20-March 1. I don’t mind that. Give me that same 2018 pattern but centered on prime climo v March/April and let’s roll! Yeah I think Cohen is going with the most conservative possible outcome. I just posted it for fun. Given what we are seeing on the LR means now with the blocking, it seems like we should be legitimately in the game around mid month or so. Could always luck into something before that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I almost feel that the thread was too positive this afternoon. Time for the 0Z runs to ruin it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, cbmclean said: I almost feel that the thread was too positive this afternoon. Time for the 0Z runs to ruin it. How so? Most of what I saw was epic blocking and positive temp departure discussion. It might get better after we punt most of January. We are on the threshold of hell. How can it get any worse at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I almost feel that the thread was too positive this afternoon. Time for the 0Z runs to ruin it. i dont think so. Not one model shows even a dusting of snow for us through 384 during peak climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You knew exactly what I was thinking. I appreciate that Clark. If we get this blocking and still can’t snow in January hell will seem like a vacation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You knew exactly what I was thinking. I appreciate that Clark. If we get this blocking and still can’t snow in January hell will seem like a vacation. You’re welcome Eddie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How so? Most of what I saw was epic blocking and positive temp departure discussion. It might get better after we punt most of January. We are on the threshold of hell. How can it get any worse at 0z? The blocking could disappear leaving only the positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think so. Not one model shows even a dusting of snow for us through 384 during peak climo Some may argue peak climo is January 15th - February 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Some may argue peak climo is January 15th - February 15th disagree...DCA lowest average high temp starts Jan 2. want to fat check this? ill save you time https://www.weather.gov/lwx/dcanme 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 DT’s back on board 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: disagree...DCA lowest average high temp starts Jan 2. want to fat check this? ill save you time https://www.weather.gov/lwx/dcanme Lol 1 degree you're desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol 1 degree you're desperate Lol he’s got it all figured out. Except the part about that he lives in Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’m of the mind it doesn’t need to improve if we get a west based block. Actually is the N PAC trough vacates and we get a ridge there that’s a worse look with a -NAO. How is a west based NAO block going to help if our source is warm “relatively”, and the PAC doesn’t improve which is necessary to shut off the flow of maritime air cross the continent. No cross polar flow and a crappy PAC... I’m not sure I agree the PAC doesn’t need to improve for our chances to improve. Maybe I missed your point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 hours ago, CAPE said: That is the general look that I was touting last night with the Euro weeklies and this morning on the extended GEFS. I get your point about ridge placement sensitivity, but we are playing with fire almost all the time anyway. As long as that trough isn't a monster sitting over GoA, it think we will be in pretty good shape, and a ridge might get us a little more cold to work with. 7 hours ago, Ji said: The surface don't care Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks If you want to play voodoo outcomes, lets say the SSWE officially triggers on the 5 th of Jan, ( per the Euro ) the cold would not become evident in the East until near January 25 th to Feb 1 st. The map above is only January 8th. Also, keep in mind if the Urals High re-builds we will continue to get +EAMT events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts