Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z GEFS mean...12z on left. 6z on right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Back on this storm note, I'm really looking forward to @BuCoVaWx obs for this. If you can take some pictures please do. I think you are as close to the bull's eye as anyone on here. I'll be with the Kingsport crew tomorrow to see my folks for Christmas, hoping I can get home in time to see the changeover, but expect it may have already happened when I get home around 4. I will be driving down 81 as the changeover works it's way east and NE. I will definitely take some pics. Just hoping things pan out for this neck of the woods. Seems like Buchanan Co. Is horrible at receiving any kind of snow anymore. Even when it's calling for a decent amount, it's usually a cold rain lol. Really hoping all of us can cash in at some point this winter! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z GEPS has a snow mean of 1.5-2" for NE TN. That is actually an increase....been very slowly creeping upward. Traditionally is a very conservative ensemble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GEPS has a snow mean of 1.5-2" for NE TN. That is actually an increase....been very slowly creeping upward. Traditionally is a very conservative ensemble. I wonder if NWS will change over to a WS warning after lunch for you guys as well as @BlunderStorm area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Almost time to start watching reality vs short range models...almost a 40° spread between St.Louis to Omaha currently 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, AMZ8990 said: I wonder if NWS will change over to a WS warning after lunch for you guys as well as @BlunderStorm area Probably will depend on the Euro. Super tough call. This affects a ton of travel plans - they will understandably want to be as sure as possible in making the call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Almost time to start watching reality vs short range models...almost a 40° spread between St.Louis to Omaha currently Yeah there about to get pounded by a blizzard in Omaha and north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Calling for some possible thunder tonight in my area, wonder if that old 10 day snow adage will come true if the thunder comes to fruition tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Calling for some possible thunder tonight in my area, wonder if that old 10 day snow adage will come true if the thunder comes to fruition tonight Actually like Middle/West TN odds going into Jan...alot better than last several years anyway 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Actually like Middle/West TN odds going into Jan...alot better than last several years anyway Right!! It’s refreshing to see good possibilities after enduring last 3 years of rubbish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z Euro is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Right out of the gate, the 12z Euro seems just a hair faster with the energy over the Rockies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Blue Moon said: I didn't even recognize you had posted them, but that's okay, no need to apologize at all, especially to me if my post came across as provocative. I sometimes glance at them to see where the amounts over the last four runs have trended, but I never pay attention to the actual amounts, if that makes sense. No worries. I had just dealt with a BS work email and was a little edgy. I think I probably took it in a way you didn't mean it. Christmas snow is serious business, lol! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z Euro: 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 TRI 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: No worries. I had just dealt with a BS work email and was a little edgy. I think I probably took it in a way you didn't mean it. Christmas snow is serious business, lol! Those emails are the best - little Festivus Day Miracle. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 That 12z ECMWF run has peaked my excitement. I have been cautiously optimistic but now I am in full hype mode. I feel conservatively 3" is now a safe call for KTRI. Edit: Meh, maybe 2-3" would be the safe call. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 They've already went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in SWVA and most of East ky. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looks like Jackson KY NWS pulled the warning trigger, and also issued advisories to the west of the warning.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 My guess MRX will upgrade watch areas to warning, and issue advisory for plateau, and central valley, maybe advisory for Southern valley but probably SPS, mostly out of concern for slick spots from black ice and dusting.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 posted in wrong thread previously, so here's the current WPC 4+ Risk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That 12z ECMWF run has peaked my excitement. I have been cautiously optimistic but now I am in full hype mode. I feel conservatively 3" is now a safe call for KTRI. Edit: Meh, maybe 2-3" would be the safe call. If I could cash out now, I would take it. Add in the cold and winds....going to fire up the wood stove and enjoy Christmas. I am a little concerned about power if we were to get heavier snow along with wind and cold. But hey, let's roll. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cotton7204 said: They've already went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in SWVA and most of East ky. Which wx office handles Dickenson Co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Which wx office handles Dickenson Co? Charleston, WV (RLX) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Cotton7204 said: They've already went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in SWVA and most of East ky. Livin' On The Edge! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Cotton7204 said: They've already went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in SWVA and most of East ky. Also worth noting that GSP issued a Winter Storm Watch (2-5", wind gusts to 40 MPH) for Avery, Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looking at the soundings after the initial band moves through, the 3km NAM soundings are extremely impressive over NE TN on the lingering snow. Snow growth layer drops very low, so terrain induced lift extends into DGZ. Very steep lapse rates extend through the DGZ (SFC CAPE of over 50 in some areas). This all suggests potential convective snow bands and very high snow ratio on the lingering snow by 03z and beyond. Probably 20:1 or better ratios after 03z with some of those snow bands. Those are always some of my favorite things to watch. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Which wx office handles Dickenson Co? Yeah, its Charleston, Wv. We are on the tail end of their office. It kills me sometimes, we are right in the middle of the Jkl office, the morristown office, blacksburg and the WV office lol. We sometimes get left out of advisories. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: My guess MRX will upgrade watch areas to warning, and issue advisory for plateau, and central valley, maybe advisory for Southern valley but probably SPS, mostly out of concern for slick spots from black ice and dusting. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Adding to this for those unfamiliar or new: MRX generally issues its afternoon AFD, advisory/warning products, and forecast updates around 3:00 pm. For storms such as this, they do have a tendency to push a bit (I've seen as late as 4:00 pm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Santa came early... Quote Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Washington-Unicoi- Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell- 214 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Rain changing to snow Thursday afternoon. A brief period of moderate to heavy snow is possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible with locally heavier amounts across the higher terrain. Temperatures will also drop below freezing very quickly Thursday afternoon and evening, with any wet surfaces rapidly freezing. * WHERE...Southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and the Smoky Mountains. This includes the Tri-City area. * WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold airmass and breezy conditions will reduce wind chills across the higher elevations to 5 below zero to 5 above for Thursday night and Friday. Edit to add: Map hasn't yet updated. Looks like they upgraded watch to warning and SPS to WWA except the furthest SW counties (incl. Hamilton). Edit 2: To recap: WSW for 2-4", locally higher depending on elevation; WWA for 1-3"; SPS remains for minimal accumulations and hazardous travel. Edit 3: Map just updated. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 When did WSW criteria change? I thought it was 6" or more for our area? They are calling for 2-4??? This is straight from NOAA.GOV - A Winter Storm Warning indicates that heavy snow of at least 6 inches in 12 hours, or at least 8 inches in 24 hours, is expected. It can also be issued if sleet accumulation will be at least half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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