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AMZ8990
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14 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS).

I don't remember if we've had one in the last several years. The models have had multiple upgrades since then so I'm not sure how they may handle it now.

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 Special weather statement from NWS Morristown-3:21ET. here is the jest of it.

 

A Strong Storm System will Effect the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians Thursday and Christmas Day...

A strong storm system will move across the area Thursday and
Christmas Day. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected area-wide
for late Wednesday night and Thursday with Windy conditions
across the Mountains and Foothills of far east Tennessee.

Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger
through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon
with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially
across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers
will linger through at least Friday morning.
Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger
through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon
with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially
across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers
will linger through at least Friday morning.

Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and far east Tennessee Mountains.
For the Plateau, parts of the central valley, and southwest North
Carolina, snowfall of 1 inch is possible.

Travel late Thursday and Thursday night may become hazardous with
snow and ice covered roadways, especially across bridges and
overpasses.

The very cold airmass along with breezy west to northwest winds
will produce dangerous wind chills from 5 below zero to 5 above
zero across the higher terrain for late Thursday through Friday
night.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the
latest updates on this situation.


$$
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1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

Looks like they are still rolling exclusively with the Euro/UKIE.

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2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI.

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1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI.

I bet within the next 24 hours they pull the trigger on watches, warnings, etc, probably just waiting to get a slightly clearer view of where the frozen precipitation is gonna end up.  

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1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI.

I'd guess tomorrow morning if the models don't lose it, they will issue winter products for the mountains and SWVA. SPS for other areas. I got 4 inches in 4 hours last December and never even got a WWA. Knox got at least 2 and didn't either. They are always very reluctant with WWP outside the mountains and it often works out for them but sometimes doesn't.

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4 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI.

Still too early for WWAs. Even if they decide on warning-criteria for the mtns, a watch isn't likely until the overnight/AM at best. We won't see WWA or WSW products until tomorrow PM at best, and possibly not until the mid-evening update or overnight/AM. 

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Agree, with Blue Ridge and John...overnight crew will prob issue for the typical areas (mtns/ va/ky)..tomorrow crew at the earliest for everyone else (if needed). As far as the short range models, we are still outside their greater error range..until there's a clear picture of what happens during the passage over the Rockies, H5 will still bounce around.

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The RGEM is still snowing over the area up into Christmas morning. Actually building nicely upstream in Kentucky by 10am Christmas morning with light snow.
I've always been partial to the RGEM it seemed to be in years past better at sniffing out trailing pieces of energy. I think it did a better job at sniffing out the trailing energy that made the event at the start of the month over perform for most folks.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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24 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I've always been partial to the RGEM it seemed to be in years past better at sniffing out trailing pieces of energy. I think it did a better job at sniffing out the trailing energy that made the event at the start of the month over perform for most folks.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

The RGEM has scored several wins before, usually related to northern stream events.  These anafrontal low spin ups are rare these days but used to be a common way to get 3 to 5 inches imby. 

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43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z Euro FWIW. Not much difference between it and 12z, as far as I can tell at this resolution:

giphy.gif

 

Winter panels will probably need another 30 minutes before they're out

Was a hair east of 12z(barely) in both snow axis and slp.  Slightly more snow in NE TN is reflected by the shift.  Overall, very similar.  

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3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

PBP is the way.

21z SREF is, so far, sharper with the trough, if not deeper (15z vs 21z). Sharpest depiction of the trough yet:

giphy.gif

Hey I’ve been looking for the SREF all over. I think the SREF probabilities on weather.cod.edu may be a little delayed and such. Where do you get your from? Perhaps you could post a link.
Thanks

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12 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

Hey I’ve been looking for the SREF all over. I think the SREF probabilities on weather.cod.edu may be a little delayed and such. Where do you get your from? Perhaps you could post a link.
Thanks

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2020122121&id=SREF_500MB-HGHT_VORT__

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