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12 CMC is west with its axis and on the eastern side of the envelop.  The 500 vort map evolution is interesting.  @Holston_River_Rambler was on to something earlier when he mentioned the axis of this trough needed to be watched.  At 60, there is a portion of that trough that tightens up, goes slightly negative for a time(before returning to neutral).  This pulls the slp north and west.  Powerhouse of a system.  That buckle(near MI/IN) on the approaching side of the trough is pulling the system west on both the CMC and GFS.  That is why we are seeing slp pop in areas along the Big Sandy River.  

369156519_ScreenShot2020-12-22at11_35_39AM.png.265cfd86acc24a04c6486f15bf321d3d.png

1213032878_ScreenShot2020-12-22at11_41_56AM.png.5f0b195a6b7c93c384b73cf6f8bcc9d1.png

 

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The buckle/indentation on the eastern side of the 500 vort trough(you can see it around MI/IN) is not nearly as pronounced on earlier runs.  That same feature is on both the GFS and CMC.  That is pulling the base of that trough a bit more eastward and pulling that lee side slp northwest.  That feature should give us a clue on future runs.

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The westward trend on the GFS isn't much an LP issue, as it's how the trough and energy swing thru the Rockies...Each run the GFS has been strengthening the tail end of the energy, while slowly digging a tad more each subsequent run..in doing so, it's slowing the front down as it moves across the forum..hence snow line keeps backing up. The LP generation is secondary (think that is what has been leading to the finger like accums on the GEFS members). Front catches back edge of the moisture (fingers across middle TN, then cold slows as it pushes over the plateau (moisture begins to out run it), then the next eastern fingers are created when the surface low begins it's formation, adding to the lift. Watch the energy and how it is trending on the tail as it comes thru CA/Rockies..if it keeps getting stronger (front will slow/trend west the initial thump), and create a further northern LP (due to the angle of the front slowing, so the Apps don't help the surface gen until further NE).ist Ops/ens still showing the front needing the extra twist/lift from the Apps to complete surface generation (except the NAM, which I think is over amping in AL)

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12z UKMET is well east of the 12z GFS and most models.  12z CMC/GDPS is like right in the middle of the two tracks.  There is a westward trend to the 12z suite for sure, but the UKMET slp is quite a bit east.  This is not settled I don't think.  So the eastern envelope is still a miss to the east for everyone but extreme NE TN.  The western envelop is a slp slightly west of the Apps.  The eastern envelop is a slop tracking just east of Asheville.  UKMET looks too weak FWIW.

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15 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Unless Chattanooga can get super lucky with lingering moisture, or as Holston alluded to earlier with a secondary low popping around Mississippi or Alabama, this is what Johnny thinks of snow in Chattanooga this Thursday. 73b3aaff5eb89b85e54c9b7bb948a80e.jpg

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

The storm seems to agree! 

29BE94AB-4DA1-4497-B2BA-079F467BCCB1.jpeg

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1 hour ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Hey guys. Another long time lurker here. I live in SW VA, Buchanan County to be exact, on the KY state line. Maybe you can help with a couple of questions. First, am I in the right forums lol. Seems this one is closer to me. Second, will Grundy, VA have any luck with this coming system. By luck I mean snow accumulation lol. Thanks in advance!!

 

Yeah, you're in the right forum haha... Welcome aboard! It's good to have a fellow southwest Virginian in this neck of the woods! As for snowfall I would say things are looking fairly optimistic but there is a threat of the low pressure overrunning us and shifting the heaviest snowfall to our west. It's hard to say at this point.

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