Wurbus Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Other than NE TN and the mountains, it appears to be trending the wrong way for most of us. Still snowing in NE TN on this snow map through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro finally popping a surface low on the Lee side..just over WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Euro finally popping a surface low on the Lee side..just over WV. That's what the UK snow map reflection appeared to be indicating ; further north development . Let's just hope doesn't trend even further for us upper forum folks. Hopefully, will revert back as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The weather isn’t making much noise so I thought I’d share this. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Not quite this hopeless but felt like sharing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Even if this storm fails, we should keep this open as the GEFS Dandridge Dollop thread. Model specific banter at it's finest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 EPS tries to keep some leeside hope alive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 We're doing this GEFS, whether you like it or not. SREF H5 is digging the trough more than 9z: 15z 9z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 A decent bump in the presentation of the 12 hr SREF snow mean. Curious to see if the NAM comes in a bit better this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Here are our 2 main pieces of energy: I think the piece to the north is the most important one for us, since it is the piece that rounds the bottom of the trough that the initial piece carves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 With energy associated with our system reaching the west coast we should probably get a clearer picture with 18z and 0z. Granted I doubt we have the best readings in the Yukon compared to Washington lol. Expect models to cave soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 NAM NAMed you @BlunderStorm Not great for the rest of us in East TN, but that is the best the NAM has looked so far: (past 3 runs trend): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: NAM NAMed you @BlunderStorm Not great for the rest of us in East TN, but that is the best the NAM has looked so far: (past 3 runs trend): ...and so the model consolidation begins just like clockwork. Also yeah I noticed I got slammed but didn't wanna rub it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 42 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: ...and so the model consolidation begins just like clockwork. Also yeah I noticed I got slammed but didn't wanna rub it in. So gracious of you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Oof. GFS a little warmer and it develops the leeside low in WV instead of NC. Could be a lot worse though...imo. Maybe the Euro will meet it in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 RGEM looks kinda like the GFS on the low riding the front scenario, but is really keying in on the second piece of energy dropping in for some extra umphh. That has the potential to overperform on snow showers, since it adds life to the normal orographic lift with the CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Check out the NAM sounding for the second piece of energy mentioned above (using it because I don't have RGEM soundings out that far): Moisture is limited to below 700 mb, but the DGZ is saturated from 875 mb - 825 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 18z GEFS pretty much stayed the same, but individual members look a lot better. Mean isn't skewed by a single member that had 16+ like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Pretty major timing difference on the 18z GFS. It shows the front pushing through and clearing Tennessee just before 7 AM Christmas Eve morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 18z GEFS Lock that in I’ll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 18z GEFS Been traveling today. Did Christmas on the back porch with some family and socially distanced to boot. That doesn't look all that bad. Models are just struggling with timing of the front in relation to precip along with a lee side low. Hey, threw you guys a nugget in the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, Kasper said: Lock that in I’ll take it! Lol, wish I could...2"-3" in the central/southern valley would be an incredible win for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This line from MRX in the afternoon AFD pretty much sums up the mood the model OP runs have lol I`m still not ready to discuss accumulation numbers at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Past results don't guarantee anything, but last December's anafrontal event was an overperformer that was handled best by the GFS/Canadian blend just from looking back at the thread. The NE Tennessee snowhole has been showing up on some model runs this time, and looking back, Holston posted the satellite shot from the next morning after last year's event and there was no accumulation in the Hawkins/East Hancock area. Basically where it's been showing up on models. That system had the benefit of happening in the evening and really got going after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Past results don't guarantee anything, but last December's anafrontal event was an overperformer that was handled best by the GFS/Canadian blend just from looking back at the thread. The NE Tennessee snowhole has been showing up on some model runs this time, and looking back, Holston posted the satellite shot from the next morning after last year's event and there was no accumulation in the Hawkins/East Hancock area. Basically where it's been showing up on models. That system had the benefit of happening in the evening and really got going after dark. Another one that comes to mind is a few years back that affected areas east of 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 https://ibb.co/wNq9B68 @John1122 thought I would put this up here for anyone interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, BlunderStorm said: https://ibb.co/wNq9B68 @John1122 thought I would put this up here for anyone interested. That shows the same snow hole that has been on multiple model runs, likely terrain induced. Amazing how models can seemingly account for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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