Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 BIGLY DISCLAIMER.... I am about to post a supreme gif. It is the SREF's MAX 3 hour snowfall. That means this map shows what the highest members of the already notoriously overdone SREF think could possibly be the max amount of snow to fall in a given 3 hour period. It should not be taken as having a hope in hell of verifying. So why post it? I I noticed something odd about the 3z run when I was looking through its winter panels. If I understand the SREF, it is sort of an ensemble for the NAM suite. So, with that in mind: Notice the normal front sweeps through at first, with a chance of rain changing to snow. Ok, yeah, you say, we get that. What I found interesting in this graphic was that apparently some of the SREF members have the secondary low popping waaayyyyy south and snowing in MS and AL. Not really looking at its overblown snow amounts, that it has precip so far south, at least to me, indicates that there is some room for such a scenario. Is it likely, no, absolutely not. But, to paraphrase an AFD I read a few weeks ago, there is a non zero chance, lol. The past two runs of the SREF have seen something that makes them think that is a possibility. I looked at the plumes and it looks like it is only the ARP that is seeing this possibility. There's still some spread in how the NAM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and WRF-ARW2 how the bottom of the trough as it swings through TX. So could be a big nothing burger, or something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 MRX just issued a SWS area wide. 2-4” SWV and the mountains. Up to an inch everywhere else including the valley. A little surprised they pulled the trigger for something in the valley. They mentioned mod to heavy snow in some areas . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 One thing I’ve noticed and it has been mentioned here already is the 500mb trough has been trending sharper and further south. That backside energy really wants to shoot south. That can only help us out I would think. May even pop another low that the SREF is eyeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 MRX snowfall map.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: MRX snowfall map.. Carv, Are you in the 1-2 zone or the 2-3 zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The NAM has def. been trending slower and deeper with the energy and that trend is reflected in it's precip presentation. 5 run trend centered on 11 AM Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The 12Z NAM drops the hammer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I reckon there's a good NAMing incoming, prepare your bodies, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Honestly surprised it didn't look a lot better for some areas: NAM sees Kuchera rations ~15:1 for some of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Honestly surprised it didn't look a lot better for some areas: NAM sees Kuchera rations ~15:1 for some of that Id hate to be traveling on 65 north out of Nashville on Thursday/Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If I lived in that eastern tip of KY where it meets VA and WV, I'd be feeling pretty good right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If you live in NE TN(really all of E TN), not a trend you want to see from the NAM. Now, it is the NAM past 48 hours and it has a problem with over-amping systems. The slp is stronger with the NAM by several millibars. That in turn sharpens the storm and changes the angle into the region. Snow axis moved about 200 mi west in KY from eastern KY to middle KY. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The 3km NAM looks a little more reasonable with snow amounts, but actually tries it's darndest to pop a low in SE Alabama and run up towards Atlanta and Asheville and then Mountain City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z NAM basically blanks E TN valley locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The 3km NAM looks a little more reasonable with snow amounts, but actually tries it's darndest to pop a low in SE Alabama and run up towards Atlanta and Asheville and then Mountain City. Whoever ends up in that sweet spot closest to Rain/snow line is gonna cash in BIG if that verifies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluegrassweather71 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 New guy here, long time lurker. I'm really curious, given the decent model support from the NAM/GFS, why Morristown is "low ending" snowfall totals for the Plateau. 1.5" inch for north central TN seems really lowballing here. Maybe someone can help a new guy? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, bluegrassweather71 said: New guy here, long time lurker. I'm really curious, given the decent model support from the NAM/GFS, why Morristown is "low ending" snowfall totals for the Plateau. 1.5" inch for north central TN seems really lowballing here. Maybe someone can help a new guy? Probably a wise move right now. If the 12k NAM(which is iffy at best at this range) is correct, they may be too high over NE TN. So, going conservative is wise. They can always up totals. I think that is just a heads-up for people traveling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said: New guy here, long time lurker. I'm really curious, given the decent model support from the NAM/GFS, why Morristown is "low ending" snowfall totals for the Plateau. 1.5" inch for north central TN seems really lowballing here. Maybe someone can help a new guy? And welcome aboard!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Hi, @bluegrassweather71! Welcome. @Carvers Gap hit the nail on the head. MRX are the kings/queens of hedging, but this is a situation in which it is certainly warranted. Given the high uncertainty, conservatism is warranted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3K NAM looks a little more robust for E TN valley locations...not a fan of that trend for MBY but will benefit folks to my west. Let's see where modeling goes...trend overnight have been a slightly westward jog of the slp. Storm may well be a powerhouse. Problem for those of us in E TN, the stronger this gets...the more it could wind-up and shift west. Again, the NAM has issues with being overly amped past 48, so lets see what the models on the east side of the envelope do...RGEM and GFS operational. The Euro at 6z was popping a low over NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said: New guy here, long time lurker. I'm really curious, given the decent model support from the NAM/GFS, why Morristown is "low ending" snowfall totals for the Plateau. 1.5" inch for north central TN seems really lowballing here. Maybe someone can help a new guy? I would be liking my chances right now if on the easter side of the Plateau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 34 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Carv, Are you in the 1-2 zone or the 2-3 zone? 1-2. We deal with a significant heat island here and are right on the river, so our elevation is a bit lower than Bristol or JC. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 1-2. We deal with a significant heat island here and are right on the river, so our elevation is a bit lower than Bristol or JC. Not to mention, the heat island seems to follow the river through the valley a ways. You double dip on unfortunate circumstances. Yet, seems like we have a few storms a decade in which SWVA and Sullivan are crushed while anything south of the Sullco/Washco border are blanked. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluegrassweather71 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I would be liking my chances right now if on the easter side of the Plateau. Should I be liking my chances here in the London, KY area? I sure hope so, ten years is a long time to go without a white Christmas. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said: Should I be liking my chances here in the London, KY area? I sure hope so, ten years is a long time to go without a white Christmas. lol @John1122 and some other posters in that region are gurus for your micro-climate. I will let them answer your question in detail on that. They are way more knowledgeable about the northern Plateau than I am. But yeah, generally, your chances look decent IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said: Should I be liking my chances here in the London, KY area? I sure hope so, ten years is a long time to go without a white Christmas. lol always on the edge here, it usually doesn't work out more than it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said: Should I be liking my chances here in the London, KY area? I sure hope so, ten years is a long time to go without a white Christmas. lol The 75 corridor, especially north, has been pretty consistently in the game with each model run. If a stronger, more amplified solution like the NAM presents comes to fruition, you're in a very good spot. Edit to add: I'll echo the caveat @Carvers Gap mentioned - microclimate oddities do apply... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 @Holston_River_Rambler since your the name guru on picking storm thread names, what should we name this storm thread? Others feel free to chip in ideas as well, or I can leave it as is. Also, do you guys think we should go ahead and start a January thread for long term discussion? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kentucky said: always on the edge here, it usually doesn't work out more than it does. @Kentucky I believe that can be said by most of us in this forum! @bluegrassweather71 Welcome to the forum! I'm a longtime member with a terminal case of lurkeritis myself. Great to have you join us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If you're taking requests from the peanut gallery... Dandridge Dollop or Dandridge Destroyer both have a nice ring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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