TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Did the SREF have a late blooming low? I would guess we will see ups and downs over the next 24 hours. Yeah...looking at the mean progression, looks to be in the WV camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 For middle/west forum folks..mean catches the front, but jumps valley due to the late low...12 hr mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 That would be about our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Plume for Tys, (mean not quite as bad as viewing thru 12hr mean) but is skewed due to the big ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Before everyone cliff jumps lol...while not good, any shift in the LP generation will have big impacts on East TN. Models don't handle lee side genesis well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 O Fortuna, velut Luna statu variablilis semper crescis aut decrescis nive detestabilis SREF nunc obdurat et tunc curat ludet mentis aciem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 0z 12k NAM at 39 is well west of the 18z run. Just looks overly amped - like way over the top stuff. It might be right...but it might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z 12k NAM at 39 is well west of the 18z run. Just looks overly amped - like way over the top stuff. It might be right...but it might not. Then it goes into OH, before remembering it's supposed to be in WV lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just looking at the 500 vort map stuff, looks like the front on the GFS/NAM combo is a lot stronger than most of the other models. It is pulling the storm well west...just not sure how believable that is, but also illustrates just how difficult this is to get right. "Low confidence" has been my phrase all week. Yep...pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The NAM is a little drunk. 996 lp in Ohio at 42, 993 in WVA at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: Then it goes into OH, before remembering it's supposed to be in WV lol Have seen little model support for that solution today. Maybe there is some new data which supports that...but the NAM just looks over the top amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z NAM at 39 is well west of the 18z run. Just looks overly amped - like way over the top stuff. It might be right...but it might not. Yeah, I was curious how the sharper SREF trough would end up on the NAM. Pulls it right up the windward side of the Apps and cranks it back over eastern OH: Let's hypothesize for the moment, that this is pivot point on these runs. If this is the furthest west the NAM goes, is there a scenario where the MSLP tracks like this, and we split the difference between the east and west solutions: And, to be fair, the rum has had it's effect at this point and this could just be a cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yeah, I was curious how the sharper SREF trough would end up on the NAM. Pulls it right up the windward side of the Apps and cranks it back over eastern OH: Let's hypothesize for the moment, that this is pivot point on these runs. If this is the furthest west the NAM goes, is there a scenario where the MSLP tracks like this, and we split the difference between the east and west solutions: And, to be fair, the rum has had it's effect at this point and this could just be a cast Think it is slightly too early to be using SREF plums and the NAM right now. Might me right, but looks suspicious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Honestly the NAM looks basically the same as it did at 18z. Just less aggressive on the backside with precip this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM is a little drunk. 996 lp in Ohio at 42, 993 in WVA at 48. Yeah, just for that simple reason I would toss it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3k NAM on Tropical Tidbits looks reasonable, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3k NAM takes 6hrs to go from Gatlinburg to Bristol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The panel that throws things off on the NAM vs 18z is the panel that pops a low briefly in Ohio. That same panel at 18z had the low in SWVA and it was snowing hard over the Eastern half of the state. The panels prior and just after are virtually no different than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: 3k NAM on Tropical Tidbits looks reasonable, right? I would believe it more than a deepening LP engaging the reverse and backing up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: I would believe it more than a deepening LP engaging the reverse and backing up lol I think we are just looking at a model that is just now getting into range. It could be a trend setter or it could be an outlier. Just seems like the NAM's really amped line of storms is cutting off moisture transport behind the front, and thus lowering totals. Is the cold front slower when diving into the front or is it a lack of moisture behind the line of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I think we are looking at a powerful front/storm which modeling just is having trouble getting a handle on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 3k 00z actually evolved very similarly to the 18z regular NAM. Low from Central Alabama to SWVA to WVA. No strange Ohio low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think we are just looking at a model that is just now getting into range. It could be a trend setter or it could be an outlier. Just seems like the NAM's really amped line of storms is cutting off moisture transport behind the front, and thus lowering totals. Is the cold front slower when diving into the front or is it a lack of moisture behind the line of storms? Soundings from Crossville and Athens after front passes thru @45 on the NAM..has a dry nose working in around the 700mb level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 HRRR really blasts the southern Plateau and eastern middle. But seems to hang the cold up on the Plateau. Granted it's all happening outside the normal wheelhouse for the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Mannnnn, don’t do us like that, HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 One thing that is prevelant behind the front on the 3k and HRRR, is the banding MRX was talking about...3k has some intense rates under them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Atleast the RGEM hasn't lost hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 RGEM is even further West it looks like. It runs the low entirely up this side of the Apps. Better for Mid state for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Still snowing at hour 60 in parts of the area on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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