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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm


Ralph Wiggum
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1 minute ago, MPotter_WX said:

On Twitter I saw a sensitivity analysis showing the implications of latent heat release within the downstream ridge. Has a lot to do with how the NAM is so amped (overdoing convection) with the GFS is so flat (under-doing  convection). Guess we’ll see who can handle the convection better.

MJVentrice Twitter post is a few nails in the coffin for I 95 crowd!

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Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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What concerns me is the sw energy continues to be sampled stronger which yields a more amped system. I think this trend is real irt the sw strength. We see this alot when energy comes onshore out West. Our saving grace/hope for i95 is going to be the 50/50, confluence, and hp ... whether those can hold and help counter the strengthening slp. RGEM says we can do it. EPS says nope im gonna dislodge the blocking and 50/50. Fun times.

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13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After all these years, I rarely trust any mid-range solutions anymore.  It's literally like they are programmed to go through a series of more speculative "what if"s, that send the runs into la la land.

The Euro bombed over and over last year setting this poor forum into a tizzy. :lol:

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19 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen.

 

6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet

10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. 

 

Sharp cut off south of 95. 

6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully

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16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully

I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8". 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8". 

I agree. 6” in the city is very likely. I personally wonder about the N solutions because of the confluence. But we’ll see. I better at least prepare for 10-12”+  here in Royersford. 

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2 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I agree. 6” in the city is very likely. I personally wonder about the N solutions because of the confluence. But we’ll see. I better at least prepare for 10-12”+  here in Royersford. 

When I lived in Royersford I never did as well as I thought I should? (Elevation?  240') I only did slightly better than my folks in Horsham...

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

When I lived in Royersford I never did as well as I thought I should? (Elevation?  240') I only did slightly better than my folks in Horsham...

We actually don’t do great here despite being in NW burbs, but if the models are right, we shouldn’t miss good totals.

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Does the GFS, et al. still have trouble parsing snowfall from sleet?  In other words, do those clown maps take into account sleet accumulation, as well, or are they measuring strictly what it perceives as snow per local soundings?  I would imagine the mesoscale models do a better job at handling that differentiation, but that's a hard guess on my part.

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