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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm


Ralph Wiggum
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No I know they're used to indicate a pause or other sort of trail off. More in the context there where the statement was, there will not be 40" of snow (reasonable thing to say given qpfs, you'd need it to be very VERY cold), was more noticing bc that was the second time today I saw Mr. Birds using them in a post and it felt like it diminished the valid statement of fact. I'm realllly splitting hairs here and this is ot, I'm just pointing out the idea of, ya know, if you have a good thought or fact, a full stop period is good. Helpful content either way.

 

The last post there "the euro will save the day", made sense with the ... 

 

I'm fun at parties. 

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12 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

No I know they're used to indicate a pause or other sort of trail off. More in the context there where the statement was, there will not be 40" of snow (reasonable thing to say given qpfs, you'd need it to be very VERY cold), was more noticing bc that was the second time today I saw Mr. Birds using them in a post and it felt like it diminished the valid statement of fact. I'm realllly splitting hairs here and this is ot, I'm just pointing out the idea of, ya know, if you have a good thought or fact, a full stop period is good. Helpful content either way.

 

The last post there "the euro will save the day", made sense with the ... 

 

I'm fun at parties. 

"The Debater", lol.

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Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Euro run is horrible. No one from I-95 east is getting more than slop with that track. Let’s hope the GFS holds serve. The Euro has been over amping some coastal storms in our area the last few years so we have hope.

Wouldn’t sweat it. If by 00z tomorrow all the models show this then it’s time to write off philly getting more than 8. Even with this run though philly manages some front and back end i believe

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I don't buy 14 with that much mixing for the city. If that verified, it's going to significantly cut down the totals. Perhaps 14" of snow will fall...mixed with rain, mixed with sleet, etc. I would go with 6-8" for the city if that ended up happening accounting for overrunning and back end. But that puts the city in a dicey situation if the dry slot precludes some of the back end potential. Models vary run to run, still time, fingers crossed. Also note that the ratio there is 1:10. We should expect 1:7. This will be a wet snow. Note that the euro run suggests 6.7" of snow will fall in Philly in the 6 hour interval in which the precip pane shows a mix. That means (a) it is counting snow in that, (b) that seems questionable. I'm turning in, later folks.  

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between?

so Im guessing the Nam must be cutting the Low inland like over Philly? but if Im reading things correctly inland solution is unlikely due to the placement of the HP in Canada correct? 

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between?

6 nam was ugly 

rgem is awesome 

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This is 2009-10 but displaced 140 miles north, and I couldn't be happier for that.
 
 

Careful. 2010 was religious in SoMoCo. 6ft base at our house. Drifts to 15ft. We would leave the pocono cabin and wait for my friend and his bucket loader to open our driveway.....week after week.


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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

To me it’s pretty obvious the rgem is dead wrong. The major models disagree right now. Itll Shift Nw soon. The Max snowfall strip won’t be over or near the City. 

Have to agree. I'm 50 miles west of the city in eastern Lancaster County but this most recent NAM run has mixing probably up to Allentown. At this point, I'd be happy with a few hours of heavy front end stuff. 

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

This is 2009-10 but displaced 140 miles north, and I couldn't be happier for that.

 

 

I remember that winter quite well. Every storm ran into dry air/confluence right at the Blue Mountain. The gradient was so bad in one storm that Allentown got 16 inches and I got 2 inches

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