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wdrag

Wet snow Monday Dec 14, 2020?

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This may be the first of 3 storms this week (14-19) with northeast wind in the NYC forum and a strongly -NAO with blocking in progress,  that  could dump up to a foot of snow, (in total)  on parts of the forum by midnight Saturday.   Uncertainty exists, especially intensity of the storm and associated upper air pattern, as well as it's track. 

This one so far with uncertainty on the r/s line and qpf amounts but potential exists for several inches of wet snow on the northern fringe of this late developing but weak nor'easter as it passes to our south.  It may finally bring NYC it's first minor measurable amount of wet snow (twas a close call on Dec 5th at CP). 

Tides are astronomically high so that there is a small chance of minor flooding in a few spots at the time of high tide both Monday and Tuesday morning's.  Since most of the snowfall (or of any snowfall) should be during the daylight hours Monday in our area, pavements will tend to be wet where it snows except the hilly areas west through northeast of NYC,  if it occurs there and comes downs hard enough. 

This is probably a day, to get snow stakes into the as yet unfrozen ground, and prep your snow blower-thrower for possible use Wednesday.  By the time Monday afternoon rolls around we should pretty much know whether this will be a week of substantial snowfall for parts of the NYC forum. 

 

 

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Temps are marginal though, maybe around freezing or just over. I’d think in the best zone it would be 3-5” rather than 6-8” the NAM shows. Definitely a nice event though given the last 2 winters and hopefully it can just be an appetizer. 
 

I’m hoping this wave is a little more amped and stronger. To me that means it can suppress the flow behind it somewhat and prevent wave 2 from becoming too amped. 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming  north

And hopefully it's real-the relevant system is mostly onshore now out west. Looks like whatever this is will be a quick hitter focused on Mon morning and afternoon. 

Verbatim a close shave mostly for LI and central NJ for wet snow but definitely a 50-75 mile bump north. 

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The NAVGEM is wet and NW for the Monday event. It's probably wetter for most of the area Monday than for Wednesday. When the old Navy NOGAPS did this it used to be considered a red flag that the rest of the mid-range guidance would shift NW.

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12 hours ago, wdrag said:

This may be the first of 3 storms this week (14-19) with northeast wind in the NYC forum and a strongly -NAO with blocking in progress,  that  could dump up to a foot of snow, (in total)  on parts of the forum by midnight Saturday.   Uncertainty exists, especially intensity of the storm and associated upper air pattern, as well as it's track. 

This one so far with uncertainty on the r/s line and qpf amounts but potential exists for several inches of wet snow on the northern fringe of this late developing but weak nor'easter as it passes to our south.  It may finally bring NYC it's first minor measurable amount of wet snow (twas a close call on Dec 5th at CP). 

Tides are astronomically high so that there is a small chance of minor flooding in a few spots at the time of high tide both Monday and Tuesday morning's.  Since most of the snowfall (or of any snowfall) should be during the daylight hours Monday in our area, pavements will tend to be wet where it snows except the hilly areas west through northeast of NYC,  if it occurs there and comes downs hard enough. 

This is probably a day, to get snow stakes into the as yet unfrozen ground, and prep your snow blower-thrower for possible use Wednesday.  By the time Monday afternoon rolls around we should pretty much know whether this will be a week of substantial snowfall for parts of the NYC forum. 

 

 

Three storms, Walt?  I thought there are just two (Monday and Wed-Thurs)?

 

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Am 75% confident of a Monday morning-midday hazardous snow (wet clingy snow) advisory situation of 2-5" somewhere in the hills of ne PA, far nw NJ se NYS, with amounts trending down in CT.  Model consensus growing. I do not think this will be snow for NYC... or if so, just a mix. 

Probably a good idea to clear the snowfall Monday afternoon, to prep for the much larger snow Wednesday into Thursday,  This is also a good day to make sure the snow stakes are in and snow removal equipment is in good working order.

The 00z/12  GGEM did not have any qpf for Monday, and if this continues into Sunday, then this snow expectation will be wrong. I did note the companion RGEM has quite a bit of QPF Monday so the reasoning for forging ahead with the snow expectation. I added the WPC early morning forecast qpf for Monday.  Have also checked SPC snow plumes which support this snow accumulation concern.

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 4.20.48 AM.png

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Am 75% confident of a Monday morning-midday hazardous snow (wet clingy snow) advisory situation of 2-5" somewhere in the hills of ne PA, far nw NJ se NYS, with amounts trending down in CT.  Model consensus growing. I do not think this will be snow for NYC... or if so, just a mix. 

Probably a good idea to clear the snowfall Monday afternoon, to prep for the much larger snow Wednesday into Thursday,  This is also a good day to make sure the snow stakes are in and snow removal equipment is in good working order.

The 00z/12  GGEM did not have any qpf for Monday, and if this continues into Sunday, then this snow expectation will be wrong. I did note the companion RGEM has quite a bit of QPF Monday so the reasoning for forging ahead with the snow expectation. I added the WPC early morning forecast qpf for Monday.  Have also checked SPC snow plumes which support this snow accumulation concern.

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 4.20.48 AM.png

The event seems to have transitioned from almost an anafrontal feature to a full surface low setup which might provide better rates and lifting but it’s still very marginal for NYC.  Seeing both NAM/GFS showing spreads of 40/29 or so before precip commences just isn’t really that good.  Seems like it might be snow but that It’ll be 35/34 the entire event.  This is an event where snow maps will badly fail 

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The event seems to have transitioned from almost an anafrontal feature to a full surface low setup which might provide better rates and lifting but it’s still very marginal for NYC.  Seeing both NAM/GFS showing spreads of 40/29 or so before precip commences just isn’t really that good.  Seems like it might be snow but that It’ll be 35/34 the entire event.  This is an event where snow maps will badly fail 

If I've learned anything living in NYC during the past few winters, it's that above freezing / marginal set ups almost always underperform! 

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I think people are underestimating this event. 

Yes it's very marginal but models have been trending stronger with this turning into a fast moving coastal. Could be a nice paste job just outside the city. 

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29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think people are underestimating this event. 

Yes it's very marginal but models have been trending stronger with this turning into a fast moving coastal. Could be a nice paste job just outside the city. 

Yeah, if it can come NW a little somewhere like west Milford can cash in.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Three storms, Walt?  I thought there are just two (Monday and Wed-Thurs)?

 

Late Fri or Saturday from the northwest--- clipper? Long shot and we're too busy before that to think about it but something is coming southeast rom the Great Lakes and I'm pretty sure we'll see some flurries or a period of snow. 

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Saw the 06z/12  EC less than 2" snow depth change for Monday.  Not worried about it being down a bit. At least its flagging snow just w and n of NYC. 

But the 12z/NAM has a nice 2" swath of positive snow depth change. I like it. 

 

AND have added the way I look at numbers... total snowfall 10 to 1... I look at real good for all snow and sub 540 thickness.

Total positive is base for the +540 thickness and or daytime temps in the 30s.  Ferrier is the heavier and often times more accurate version of Total Positive. 

Finally Kuchera...probably very good for powder and sub 540 thickness... but I don't think very good for over 540 1000-500 thickness.  

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.31.16 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-06 at 1.32.46 PM.png

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