GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

Also, we do have a Richmond area thread for posters who live down there, it’s not as active, but does exist. 

 

 

But if there is a storm thread do they still post in there or the storm thread?   Maybe it was that way and I never noticed before. We’ve had forum dividing events though and melt downs by weenies whose feeling are hurt it’s not gonna snow on their house but I don’t remember (besides jokes) suggesting the part of the region getting snow needs to sequester themselves away so as not to hurt the feelings of those not getting snow. 

[DTWXRISK]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

Nice surprise to see both American models trend toward the European. Was honestly not expecting that. Can you tell me what the change was from 12/18z to 0z. More NS interaction or is the New England bomb hauling a little more than expected? 

 NEW ENGLAND  se canada moving away

[DTWXRISK]

0z euro  is ****ing     juicy  for all of VA    except for    SE  va     north edge of snow line get to DC for 6 hrs   I-666  is  'IN"  the snow  such as it is   7A  TO 7P 

 

[DTWXRISK]

[DTWXRISK]

 this will GOOD  for   ME  Business wise... a Lot of FRI  forecast and  saturday  TV /  NWS   Really  down played this 

[yoda]

Another north bump please   but it would be nice to see flakes falling on Monday regardless if it accumulates, though I would like it to lol

Nice job on this thread DT

[WesternFringe]

Part of the reason some of us don’t post more outside of the DC-Baltimore area is the dismissive attitude of a few who like to remind us that the majority of the forum is DC-Baltimore focused.  
 

I live in Augusta County and am very much interested in DT’s analysis for snow chances in VA.  Thanks, DT, and please keep updating us as to your latest thoughts on this!  
 

 

[DTWXRISK]

On 12/3/2020 at 8:52 PM, DTWXRISK said:

This is a timing problem. If the southern  s/w  were  to come in more neutral or negatively tilted over Georgia then you would end up with a much stronger Coastal LOW and the potential for a surprise snowstorm in portions of Virginia and Maryland on Monday December 7.

 THAT WILL DO  IT 

[Chase]

Stabilized modeling? or could this still tick north or be stronger? 

[yoda]

Is there any chance of this becoming a bigger storm for us DT?  Or is this pretty much the best we can hope for -- as in tonight's EURO run?

[yoda]

06z GFS dumps 1-2" across C VA... CHO to RIC region

[yoda]

LWX morning AFD on threat

An upper-level trough will sharpen to our west as northern stream
energy dives down from Canada and the Midwest while southern stream
energy moves into the Gulf Coast States. There are three distinct
upper-level lows early this morning. The one over the Midwest and
the southern Plains will be the two to watch for tonight. These
systems may partially phase, and if they do that will allow for some
southern stream moisture to work its way into the area. At the same
time, surface high pressure will be overhead, so it will be cold and
dry enough (evaporative cooling) that if precipitation develops it
would be in the form of snow. However, if these systems do not phase
then it will remain just dry and chilly with some clouds.

Latest guidance overnight has trended more toward a solution that
these systems do partially phase, but there is still a significant
amount of model divergence at this time. The 00z HREF ensembles show
slight chance/chance pops across approximately the southwestern half
of the CWA, but the GEFS and EPS show likely to categorical pops
over the same areas. Bumped pops up to chance across these areas
based on the latest information, but if the trends continue later
this morning, then higher pops will be needed across these areas.
Despite light QPF, it does appear that accumulating snow is possible
across portions of the area late tonight (especially south and west
of the Potomac River), and this could affect the morning commute
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The morning commute may be impacted by accumulating snow Monday,
especially across locations south and west of the Potomac River.
Confidence remains low at this time, and this will have to be
monitored closely with later guidance today (see discussion in near
term above).

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

06z GFS dumps 1-2" across C VA... CHO to RIC region

Slight chance of snow in our zones.  Doesn’t get to 30% chance until you get to around Culpeper. Might be as close as we get here.  First flakes maybe?  

[aldie 22]

Southern zones and shore area...that's nina

[WxUSAF]

Now would be a good time for that north trend please 

[40westwx]

8 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

 well  I   will   try and  be  more  "focused"  in my comments   central VA  vs  DC  north VA  BAL 

  fair  enough ?

Please stick around here and post.. I like your analysis!  There is nothing wrong it!  Every year I see you pop in and people arent fair to you and you disappear... so what if you root for richmond.. obviously you should.. you live there!

[clueless]

Nice to see snow in VA.  I will be watching from the northern edge. Enjoy folks. Thanks for starting the thread DT. 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Slight chance of snow in our zones.  Doesn’t get to 30% chance until you get to around Culpeper. Might be as close as we get here.  First flakes maybe?  

I like the trend. Stay vigilant.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I like the trend. Stay vigilant.

The flurry/f-you line stops at Rt 28.  You know it.  But we can drive down the 619 Linton Hall hill so all good. 

[Ji]

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Now would be a good time for that north trend please 

i havent seen a north trend when we have needed one in about 10 years lol

[mappy]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But if there is a storm thread do they still post in there or the storm thread?   Maybe it was that way and I never noticed before. We’ve had forum dividing events though and melt downs by weenies whose feeling are hurt it’s not gonna snow on their house but I don’t remember (besides jokes) suggesting the part of the region getting snow needs to sequester themselves away so as not to hurt the feelings of those not getting snow. 

Richmond is part of this subforum, so if there is a threat for them there should be a thread for it, that they and anyone else can post in. 
I was just letting DT know that there is also a Richmond thread for daily discussions. 

[aldie 22]

The way the precip patterns have been all summer and fall is this a surprise? SE winter if there's any cold weather 

[Wonderdog]

23 hours ago, nj2va said:

Pivotalweather.com - doesn’t have 6z/18z runs though.

Thanks!

[CAPE]

12z HRRR 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

The flurry/f-you line stops at Rt 28.  You know it.  But we can drive down the 619 Linton Hall hill so all good. 

I'm thinking about Wellington and LHR.

[Buddy1987]

12z 12k NAM looking much more Euroish with precip field for southern viewing area.

[Buddy1987]

12z 3k NAM captures precip field a little better than previous image captured. We will see if gfs shows something similar to what NAM and Euro are now starting to key in on. @Disc starting to look a little closer to more of a “benchmark” track for southern portions of the forum? Low east of ILM south of Hatteras.

[BristowWx]

If that 3k precip field could just move NE instead of East that would be helpful for me and some of my friends 

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If that 3k precip field could just move NE instead of East that would be helpful for me and some of my friends 

Agreed lol. Need that maritimes low to scoot just a little further north and east to allow the LP to not be pinched and forced to the east. Minimum I feel good about mood flakes for you all. 

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I'm thinking about Wellington and LHR.

If I am not reading it wrong 12z HRRR looks pretty decent for us as Cape mentioned it looking good.  Solid blue over our houses.  For about an hour maybe 2