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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Guys, the February 2010 storms had us fearing suppression two days before. I just remembered that...

I still remember the CTP forecast discussion like 2-3 days before the Feb 5-6 storm. Said something like "3 perhaps 4 inches along and south of the turnpike"

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

I still remember the CTP's forecast discussion like 2-3 days before the Feb 5-6 storm. Was something like "3 perhaps 4 inches along and south of the turnpike"

CTP was calling for 2-4" for Lanco 36 hours prior to arrival in '96. 

I measured 30.5" 3 days later. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

I still remember the CTP forecast discussion like 2-3 days before the Feb 5-6 storm. Said something like "3 perhaps 4 inches along and south of the turnpike"

Right and then as the time got closer everyone on the TV markets had an "oh god," moment and had to sound the alarm. 

Similar thing happened in 2017? I may be off on the year, but I was at my parents house in Huntingdon county and the night before the storm, Joe Murgo's head blew up on tv like the dude from "Scanners."

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23 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Right and then as the time got closer everyone on the TV markets had an "oh god," moment and had to sound the alarm. 

Similar thing happened in 2017? I may be off on the year, but I was at my parents house in Huntingdon county and the night before the storm, Joe Murgo's head blew up on tv like the dude from "Scanners."

This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton while half the Sus Valley ended up mixing. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol.  

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton while half the Sus Valley ended up mixing. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol.  

Joe is a great follow on Facebook. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol.  

Dang I didn’t know that.  We need to get Mag his big daddy storm 

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1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Can someone explain the zero precip in fayette county in the western laurels? Is that the dry slot where the transfer is happening?

I'm not sure which model your looking at but I only saw that effect on the 3k NAM this afternoon, which was showing some mixing in SW PA into the ridges. I do know it was showing up in previous runs and it's likely the easterly flow during the transfer causing a downslope effect on guidance on the west side of the Laurel's. Today's guidance is mostly showing better precip into PA from the primary today and a better precip shield overall so I don't think this potential effect would be too much of an issue as it's being presented currently... especially in southern PA where the best QPF is right now. 

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8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Dang I didn’t know that.  We need to get Mag his big daddy storm 

Lol all the big ones from '96 on were mid-high teens storms here. 2003 may have done it between the storm and the upper level low passage the night after the storm ended but I never really measured that one. 2/5/10 I had like 17.5" I believe, but nearly 30" that week between that and 2/10/10. 2016 was close with those amounts being at the bottom of the county. 

I'd be happy with a second double digit storm for the season, that hasn't happened here since 2010.  

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59 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol all the big ones from '96 on were mid-high teens storms here. 2003 may have done it between the storm and the upper level low passage the night after the storm ended but I never really measured that one. 2/5/10 I had like 17.5" I believe, but nearly 30" that week between that and 2/10/10. 2016 was close with those amounts being at the bottom of the county. 

I'd be happy with a second double digit storm for the season, that hasn't happened here since 2010.  

This one prob won’t get the job done but the  end of feb into March is your window to get 2ft of snow that tracks up to state college while it’s raining in cashtown.  

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