anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is it a bust if they didn’t even issue watches yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just a little 300 mile south shift vs. 0Z on the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, canderson said: Yup. I'm not counting on any coastal snow from this. Primary/WAA is the only thing I'd trust. I'm not sure where that's coming from? The NAO is starting to relax and YES, we had a shred factory over the last couple weeks (and still do), BUT what you are forgetting, is that the shredder is running outta gas this weekend, and the upcoming event just has a nice antecedent airmass to work with, and its deep enough to keep most out of worry for taint, but is not the big bully it once was which gives this storm a chance to lift and not suppress. Point is, you cant just say "atmospheric memory" when the base state is changing. It's been said many times....gotta pay attention to 500's/700's and not just surface. EDIT - and fwiw, I'm not saying in the end that you arent correct, but you cant just look at this storm the same way we've been for the last several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 CMC 72 good, it leaves at 78 and 84. Congrats Maryland after 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: The Allegheny front probably does a cracker jack job of killing primaries. Yep Geography = friction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 cmc goes way south from 0z, mainly targets Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm not sure where that's coming from? The NAO is starting to relax and YES, we had a shred factory over the last couple weeks (and still do), BUT what you are forgetting, is that the shredder is running outta gas this weekend, and the upcoming event just has a nice antecedent airmass to work with, and its deep enough to keep most out of worry for taint, but is not the big bully it once was which gives this storm a chance to lift and not suppress. Point is, you cant just say "atmospheric memory" when the base state is changing. It's been said many times....gotta pay attention to 500's/700's and not just surface. EDIT - and fwiw, I'm not saying in the end that you arent correct, but you cant just look at this storm the same way we've been for the last several weeks. I maintain that confluence can erode that WAA - the confluence has been trending stronger, not weakening. Your point in general about the differences in each setup and things change over time is well noted and prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'll just take the ICON for the win for this sub forum. Trends are not in our favor right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm not sure where that's coming from? The NAO is starting to relax and YES, we had a shred factory over the last couple weeks (and still do), BUT what you are forgetting, is that the shredder is running outta gas this weekend, and the upcoming event just has a nice antecedent airmass to work with, and its deep enough to keep most out of worry for taint, but is not the big bully it once was which gives this storm a chance to lift and not suppress. Point is, you cant just say "atmospheric memory" when the base state is changing. It's been said many times....gotta pay attention to 500's/700's and not just surface. EDIT - and fwiw, I'm not saying in the end that you arent correct, but you cant just look at this storm the same way we've been for the last several weeks. Very true but we have definitive trends here with these runs. I have to think they're picking up some atmoshperic info I can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Many of us are so close to getting a memorable storm or getting just a few inches. Hopefully it comes into focus over the next 24 hours, but something tells me it won't. Lots of radar hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: Many of us are so close to getting a memorable storm or getting nothing. Hopefully it comes into focus over the next 24 hours, but something tells me it won't. Lots of radar hallucinations. FIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: FIFY Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Huh? Fixed it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Many of us are so close to getting a memorable storm or getting just a few inches. Hopefully it comes into focus over the next 24 hours, but something tells me it won't. Lots of radar hallucinations. LOL. Radar Hallucinations will be high. Just Yesterday we were pretty much bullseye to now most fringed in these trends today. It will be a fun couple of days. Banking on the ICON and NAM to keep the hopes alive. GFS as well, it wasn't bad but such a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Fixed it for you Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GFS-para is a huge hit for most everyone just to add to the chaos.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is the PARA replacing the current GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: 12z GFS-para is a huge hit for most everyone just to add to the chaos.. LOL. OK Model Madness......I'll take the Para for $500 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 At this point given the trends, I would say this is a non-issue for anyone north of US 22 and it's quickly on the verge of becoming one for anyone north of the PA Turnpike. Somebody earlier in the week jackpotted Warrenton, Virginia, and that may very well end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 From PSU I like this: There are 2 obvious camps emerging in the guidance... and it involves how they are handling the upstream feature in New England. Those that are diving the vort there further southwest are suppressing the flow (NAM/Euro) and causing the trough to remain more positive with a more suppressed east solution WRT the coastal. Then a camp that is less suppressive with that feature (GFS/PARA/ICON). The GGEM/RGEM are kind of in between and so we see probably the ideal result for 95. There is honestly no way to know for sure what is going to happen with that feature in New England, but it holds the key here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: At this point given the trends, I would say this is a non-issue for anyone north of US 22 and it's quickly on the verge of becoming one for anyone north of the PA Turnpike. Somebody earlier in the week jackpotted Warrenton, Virginia, and that may very well end up being right. I’d agree with this, I’m only focused on scraps I can get with the primary. Coastal looking less likely north of turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Very true but we have definitive trends here with these runs. I have to think they're picking up some atmoshperic info I can't see. Ok....I'll play.......... On monday you had a storm that was knee deep in the shred factory that ended up having taint all the way to the NY border (potter tioga had sleet). It was NOT modeled to do so. 3 days later you have a storm that was slated to hammer us a week earlier, end up in central NC (spoke to a client 40 min south of Apex NC and she had 2" snow yesterday). That was all during our shutout shredder NAO pattern. Point I'm making is that while this pattern has been stable, systems can and will attack and cannot just assume they'll adjust south. This one has a 1002mb lp trying to cut and will do its best, BUT while the air is deep and cold enough to force under and redevelops off coast the NAO is lifting out giving the coastal pop @ OBX a chance to come north and do a loopdyloop because of it. Several nooners ticked back W with MSLP. If they all started to go east, I'd be buyin what you and trainer are selling. Still enough uncertainty exists to not discount, tucked/more northerly adjustments as we approach go time. Just my .02. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone want a storm update? The energy for our SUN/MON storm is now coming thru CA & NV with snow & rain. Low pressure will develop over OK on Saturday and track to OH on Sunday...then re-develop off the VA coast Sunday PM into Monday. This type of "jump storm" is very complex... ...and they are known to give forecasters (and snow lovers) fits. #bustpotential That said, if things play out just right...then snowfall would exceed our December storm. But given the complexity of the playing field, it would be imprudent to be talking "numbers" today... #nohype Saturday AM is the right time to make the call on snowfall. Check back. Timing: Light snow is likely Sunday afternoon w/ the steadiest snow (or mix) late Sunday night into Monday...tapering off by Tuesday AM. Bust factors: Sharp northern edge, dry slot, sleet, coastal low track. Horst's thoughts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here's the 12z Ukie, stolen from the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Is the PARA replacing the current GFS? Yea, the last I read, it was set to become the operational version in early Feb. https://theweatherguy.net/blog/new-gfs-model-coming/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Anyone want a storm update? The energy for our SUN/MON storm is now coming thru CA & NV with snow & rain. Low pressure will develop over OK on Saturday and track to OH on Sunday...then re-develop off the VA coast Sunday PM into Monday. This type of "jump storm" is very complex... ...and they are known to give forecasters (and snow lovers) fits. #bustpotential That said, if things play out just right...then snowfall would exceed our December storm. But given the complexity of the playing field, it would be imprudent to be talking "numbers" today... #nohype Saturday AM is the right time to make the call on snowfall. Check back. Timing: Light snow is likely Sunday afternoon w/ the steadiest snow (or mix) late Sunday night into Monday...tapering off by Tuesday AM. Bust factors: Sharp northern edge, dry slot, sleet, coastal low track. Horst's thoughts. So he's basically as divided/unsure as we are..... awesome!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: Here's the 12z Ukie, stolen from the MA thread. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: So he's basically as divided/unsure as we are..... awesome!! HAHA. I think everyone is unsure of this storm, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Ok....I'll play.......... On monday you had a storm that was knee deep in the shred factory that ended up having taint all the way to the NY border (potter tioga had sleet). It was NOT modeled to do so. 3 days later you have a storm that was slated to hammer us a week earlier, end up in central NC (spoke to a client 40 min south of Apex NC and she had 2" snow yesterday). That was all during our shutout shredder NAO pattern. Point I'm making is that while this pattern has been stable, systems can and will attack and cannot just assume they'll adjust south. This one has a 1002mb lp trying to cut and will do its best, BUT while the air is deep and cold enough to force under and redevelops off coast the NAO is lifting out giving the coastal pop @ OBX a chance to come north and do a loopdyloop because of it. Several nooners ticked back W with MSLP. If they all started to go east, I'd be buyin what you and trainer are selling. Still enough uncertainty exists to not discount, tucked/more northerly adjustments as we approach go time. Just my .02. To be fair, I'm not selling. I'm trying to have a balanced discussion including hype, logic, reason, and everything in between. I'm not rooting against this nor do I hope that I'm right in what I'm thinking right now. I'm here for one reason, it's not to play poo poo or to be a pain in the arse. But things have happened, are happening, and I'm offering a counterpoint. I will try and post actual weather updates going forward and leave my thoughts and opinions out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: 12z GFS-para is a huge hit for most everyone just to add to the chaos.. and why we cannot discount norther solutions. Base state is changing. I'd bet the most house money on the model that handles thermal profiles the best and see where it sends the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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