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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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35 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

It’s only Feb 12. I don’t think our snow threats are over. Hopefully the Tuesday threat got as far north as it is getting and goes south now.

Every winter is different, so we'll see how this one plays out. I believe 2010-11 was a snowy Nina for us, that one abruptly ended after an ice storm in mid Feb. 

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Started off February rocking with a B to an A+ storm depending on location, and a two week outlook that was OFF THE HOOK GREAT LOOKING. What has happened since? Performed at the extreme low end snow potential guidance envelope, and the best the third week can offer is an ice storm of some kind. 

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10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Started off February rocking with a B to an A+ storm depending on location, and a two week outlook that was OFF THE HOOK GREAT LOOKING. What has happened since? Performed at the extreme low end snow potential guidance envelope, and the best the third week can offer is an ice storm of some kind. 

I'm rooting for hours of heavy rain with temps in the mid teens...

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38 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Overnight guidance only has increased the flood threat this week. Gfs has Philly hitting 60 on Friday morning in addition to 1" on qpf.

Yet the Euro has barely a drop of non-frozen the entire run for most of PA and temps well BN. Euro mostly all snow the same period where the GFS is 60 and rain. One will fail terribly.

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS para looks closer to euro. Epic icing Tuesday just N and W. Frozen Thursday then a brief 12 hr warmup before polar front presses thru. More frozen in the LR. 

Agree with you there is still a very large, impactful Ice threat in the N and W Zones. Most guidance depicts temps 33-35 over the region. We’re still 3 days out. Not sure why this is being written off by many as Rain.  I certainly wouldn’t be letting my guard down  

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Thursday is trending towards more frozen imo. Should be a nice thump at the very least but it feels like one of those 3-6" slop storms that ends as light rain. Tuesday is dead for almost everyone at this point, only thing to watch there is if the precip keeps increasing. New nam paints a stripe of 1-1.5" qpf through se pa that is mostly liquid. Rgem is juiced up too. Should be a mess as that all falls in 12 hours. Going to run right off...

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Thursday is trending towards more frozen imo. Should be a nice thump at the very least but it feels like one of those 3-6" slop storms that ends as light rain. Tuesday is dead for almost everyone at this point, only thing to watch there is if the precip keeps increasing. New nam paints a stripe of 1-1.5" qpf through se pa that is mostly liquid. Rgem is juiced up too. Should be a mess as that all falls in 12 hours. Going to run right off...

Many of us would take that regarding Thurs.

I think Mon night will be dicier than today...?

24F

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Thursday is trending towards more frozen imo. Should be a nice thump at the very least but it feels like one of those 3-6" slop storms that ends as light rain. Tuesday is dead for almost everyone at this point, only thing to watch there is if the precip keeps increasing. New nam paints a stripe of 1-1.5" qpf through se pa that is mostly liquid. Rgem is juiced up too. Should be a mess as that all falls in 12 hours. Going to run right off...

Euro just did that 

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Making glaciers up here this week. Im beginning to wonder if the 3-6 hrs of rain the NAM is advertising early Tuesday will have much of a melt impact. I can see it just acting as a compactor before the deep freeze returns. Solid base for the thump to accumulate Thursday. Then maybe we can begin to see temps moderate again?

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