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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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Euro is doing what my my thought scenario was a few posts back. Swings a ns wave through, drags the baroclinic zone/boundary into the mid atl, bowling ball vort coming east from the Rockies. Need it to keep moving so it doesn't pump heights ahead too much while moving thru before confluence pulls out of the Northeast. All about timing...lets see where she goes

500hv.conus.png

Eta: the kicker moving into the West Coast should keep our potential system moving. Not a bad look at all thru this panel

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198 system pulling away. Light rain showers everyone. LP Western GL ruling the flow.

Meh, didnt get it done but there is the northern solution I was fearful of. This isn't a suppressed look at all.

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I've seen worse late Feb looks. Clean up that mess near the GL, flatten out the SER a hair, and move the Western ridge east a blip and we probably have something. Winter isn't over yet thats for sure.

20210219_135214.png

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27 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Anti snow sun angle season is here, melted the snow on my car through the clouds and a temp of 30F

I actually really enjoy the last 2 weeks of feb and the first days of March. Not enough angle yet to be completely detrimental but just enough to usually keep roads in check and as you said also helps with cleaning the car.

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Rgem is 3-6" for se pa on Monday. Someone sell me some hopiates because I want to believe :lol:

 

7" weenie dot over red skys house

 

rgem_asnow_neus_76.png

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Rgem is 3-6" for se pa on Monday. Someone sell me some hopiates because I want to believe :lol:

 

7" weenie dot over red skys house

 

rgem_asnow_neus_76.png

Two contours south of me but that's ok everything moves NW

 

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Low north of us and precip arrives in the dead afternoon, if this one could get delayed 6 hours we may have a shot... Right now looks like white rain at best like the ICON. I hope the rgem comes true but I have serious doubts.

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4 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Rgem is 3-6" for se pa on Monday. Someone sell me some hopiates because I want to believe :lol:

 

7" weenie dot over red skys house

 

rgem_asnow_neus_76.png

It appears the timing of this is horrible, late morning / early afternoon. It would be a nice little hit if somehow overnight...

Flyers / Bruins Sunday outdoors at Lake Tahoe. My God look at that scenery... 

Lake Tahoe.jpg

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Been light snow since at least first light. Elevation squeeze. Sun out....blue sky scattered about.....yet the light snow has not stopped. Love the mountains. About an inch thus far


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Rgem continues to hint at maybe c-2" along 95 n and w(2" are the nw areas). 3km is pretty close to that too. Timing just absolutely blows though! Im rooting for white rain/snow tv at this point.

nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

 

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What happened to the Friday threat? Just up and went poof overnight on all guidance except the ICON. Though last time the icon was on its own, things turned out pretty well(super bowl storm).

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Been light snow since at least first light. Elevation squeeze. Sun out....blue sky scattered about.....yet the light snow has not stopped. Love the mountains. About an inch thus far


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Still snowing without a stop. 1.5-2......fluffy


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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24 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Rgem continues to hint at maybe c-2" along 95 n and w(2" are the nw areas). 3km is pretty close to that too. Timing just absolutely blows though! Im rooting for white rain/snow tv at this point.

nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

 

This will a be grass only (or snow on snow) event if anything. May not even stick on cars....unproductive snow.

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13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

This will a be grass only (or snow on snow) event if anything. May not even stick on cars....unproductive snow.

I’m curious what falls. I’m wondering if it will be white rain, rain, snow that acc on snow, rate dependent snow, no clue really. Best guess is rain with flakes mixed in for the city

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’m curious what falls. I’m wondering if it will be white rain, rain, snow that acc on snow, rate dependent snow, no clue really. Best guess is rain with flakes mixed in for the city

Snow on snow maybe but that's about it. No car toppers, no pavement/asphalt and basically slop to rain IMO. Would like a surprise but I don't see it...

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21 hours ago, RedSky said:

Anti snow sun angle season is here, melted the snow on my car through the clouds and a temp of 30F

I have it pegged down between the 2nd and 3rd week in Feb its effects start to be noticed. Not super horrible yet but you notice it from a month ago. I'm sitting at 31F and sunny but quite a bit dripping going on...

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17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I have it pegged down between the 2nd and 3rd week in Feb its effects start to be noticed. Not super horrible yet but you notice it from a month ago. I'm sitting at 31F and sunny but quite a bit dripping going on...

Good icicle making conditions.

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Just now, KamuSnow said:

Good icicle making conditions.

No doubt and should have mentioned this. I have some nice ones....although a couple may drill me in the head falling if not careful. 

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

No doubt and should have mentioned this. I have some nice ones....although a couple may drill me in the head falling if not careful. 

I laughed but be safe!

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ECM UKIE GFS PARA want to add 3-4" snow to the glacier in the high counties Monday. From there the 30 days of endless cold and snow ends and the spring melt begins will be interesting to see how long it lasts. 

No question this is a top ten 30 day period of snow/cold 

 

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I'm about to go out and do some snow cleanup touch up. Don't know about anyone else, but with the amount of sleet we had down here this has been a labor/exertion intensive process. 3x the effort of last week, which lines up inversely with the 3:1 ratio for sleet (vs 10:1 for average snow).

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM UKIE GFS PARA want to add 3-4" snow to the glacier in the high counties Monday. From there the 30 days of endless cold and snow ends and the spring melt begins will be interesting to see how long it lasts. 

 

Yeah I've been thinking about that too. This month has been awesome. Hoping to hold onto some snowpack thru the end of the month, which would be notable.

I'm somewhat susceptible to cabin fever, etc. by the time we get to this time of the year. Like last winter was basically 5 months of brown and drab, and looking forward to April which seemed far away in February. This year (and even a normal snow year) is much better - snow on snow etc., changes up the landscape, looks beautiful, and next thing you know spring is right around the corner.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

What happened to the Friday threat? Just up and went poof overnight on all guidance except the ICON. Though last time the icon was on its own, things turned out pretty well(super bowl storm).

GFS trended the right way. Euro has it but weakish. Worth keeping an eye on but not a strong signal attm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh144_trend.gif

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