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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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3 hours ago, penndotguy said:

I really hope this thread gets a lot activity this winter, maybe we flipped the script this season with the milder Oct. and Nov. opposed to the last couple where we had cooler and snow. Fingers crossed.

 

Hoping for a reversal of fortune this year as well. Not seeing it thus far. And looking farther down the line at the ensemble means, shades of last winter with a WAR firmly in place, a NPAC flat ridge, and emergence of a SE ridge towards Christmas. Then an all-out PAC puke Nina look later in the month. Hope these modeled looks are wrong of course, but the "norm" seems a whole heck of alot different than it did 6+ years or so ago.

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49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hoping for a reversal of fortune this year as well. Not seeing it thus far. And looking farther down the line at the ensemble means, shades of last winter with a WAR firmly in place, a NPAC flat ridge, and emergence of a SE ridge towards Christmas. Then an all-out PAC puke Nina look later in the month. Hope these modeled looks are wrong of course, but the "norm" seems a whole heck of alot different than it did 6+ years or so ago.

Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back.. 

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The good news is we don't need it to be well below normal cold for it to snow in the winter! I remain confident in my winter forecast of much more snow than last year.....of course that will not be too difficult....if my forecast is accurate we will be 90% to last year's seasonal snowfall by the end of December.

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Yo Ralph,

Should we be listening for thunder today or is 11/30 too early to apply the Wiggum rule?

Currently 61F with .90" of rain so far.

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Sitting back watching things unfold there was over the top enthusiasm last week for a few days of model runs painting a false positive cold and potential snowy unexpected pattern in the first half of December. Game over on that.

 

  • Weenie 1

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Norman has awoken!

 

Quote

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

TORNADO WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC017-029-045-091-101-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0515.201130T1805Z-201201T0000Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUCKS                CHESTER             DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY           PHILADELPHIA
$$

 

Quote

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

TORNADO WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0515.201130T1805Z-201201T0000Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             OCEAN               SALEM
SOMERSET
$$


 

Quote

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

TORNADO WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0515.201130T1805Z-201201T0000Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$


 

20201130-nws-tornadowatch-phi-stormwarning-highwindwarning-floodwarning-windadv-floodadv-highsurfadv-tornadowatch-phiarea.PNG

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22 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Sitting back watching things unfold there was over the top enthusiasm last week for a few days of model runs painting a false positive cold and potential snowy unexpected pattern in the first half of December. Game over on that.

 

It's gonna be another winter of being 10 days away from being 10 days away.

 

Up to 63F with 1.20" of rain. 

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28 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

It's still fall, right?  I just ran to the store and holy cow there was a strong sustained gust for a few minutes.  The drop ceiling tiles in the breezeway at cvs came flying down when an old lady came in the sliding doors during the gust, she almost got taken out!  Couple limbs down on the roads too.

 

Edit:  There is a tornado warning that was issued at 1:11pm.  Here is a screenshot of radar from the time of the gust in Phoenixville.  

Screenshot_20201130-131402_Wunderground_copy_213x352.jpg

Great way to start the winter OBS thread with severe discussion.  

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Yo Ralph,

Should we be listening for thunder today or is 11/30 too early to apply the Wiggum rule?

Currently 61F with .90" of rain so far.

Too early. Usually late Dec/early Jan thru around Feb 10 that rule works.

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Stuff popping all around.  Am up to 1.42" of rain since my last reporting of that and currently 64 with a line on my doorstep.

 

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DEC003-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-091-101-302045-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0303.201130T2001Z-201130T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
301 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Northwestern Salem County in southern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 345 PM EST.

* At 301 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elkton,
  moving northeast at 70 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
           possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, West Chester,
  Norristown, Chester, West Norriton, East Norriton, Pennsville,
  Yeadon, Westtown, Carneys Point, Conshohocken, Folcroft, Ambler,
  Swarthmore, Elsmere and Paulsboro.

This includes the following highways...
 Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 320 and 340.
 Northeast Extension between mile markers 21 and 26.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 15, and
between mile markers 20 and 29.
 Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 0 and 23.
 Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 327 and 349.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 14.
 Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1.
 Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall
take priority.  Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause
greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be
followed.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for northern
Delaware...southern New Jersey...and southeastern Pennsylvania.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 7569 4022 7537 4008 7496 3944 7576
      3945 7578 3972 7579 3972 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 223DEG 61KT 3961 7581

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JEO

 

radar21-11302020.png

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Too early. Usually late Dec/early Jan thru around Feb 10 that rule works.

Damn! And I just heard thunder too.

Up to 1.40" with some nasty stuff heading this way, dark as night out there right now.

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TOR lofted in Central Montco.

Quote

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
NJC019-PAC017-091-302130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0036.201130T2053Z-201130T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 430 PM EST.

* At 353 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Lansdale, or 17 miles north of Philadelphia,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lansdale, Doylestown, Byram, Chalfont, Tinicum, New Hope,
  Pipersville, Gardenville, Lumberville, Lambertville, New Britain,
  Brittany Farms-Highlands and Montgomeryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall
take priority.  Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause
greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be
followed.

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 7524 4023 7528 4049 7510 4037 7494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 219DEG 44KT 4024 7523

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

JEO

 

radar24-11302020.png

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I'm a little west of Lansdale, had torrential rains and gusty winds when the line came through, but I would say winds were around 35mph or so.

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