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November 30-December 2 *Potential* Winter Storm


Hoosier
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5 hours ago, Snownado said:

I mean the Euro shows like 4" for Fort Wayne. Aren't you close to there ? To me anything more than 3" is significant.

I'm about 25 miles southwest FWA. Over Allen County, the Euro is spitting out 3-5, west to east, while down here it is giving us a couple of inches. The GFS is even more putrid, barely spitting out an inch.

I'm not complaining because any snow is good, just so close to more accumulation. I was hoping for a last minute correction west, but don't think it's going to happen. Looks like too a late phase and late fujiwhara.

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11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I notice often unrealistic warm temperatures in those little urban center circles on forecast temp maps, especially GFS. I think they probably put something in their computer system to account for UHI, but it clearly overdoes things

Hi michsnowfreak...a fellow Wyandotter here.  Just found this site.  My brother-in-law is signing up right now.  He was weathernut on uswxforums.  His name on here is Wxnut1970.

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3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

I'll be rooting for you.  I think I might be just a bit too far west to get much LES....maybe an inch here in Griffith unless we get a due n/s fetch down the lake for awhile.  I know Hoosier is forecasting more and he has more experience in recent years in this area than I do.  That certainly is a strong LES band setting up to dive  into IN pretty far se.  Latest delta T I've seen has been around 17.  I like it more around 20.  Good luck to those who catch the system snow to the east and get under the brunt of the LES band. Good way to start met winter.

Thanks. You should be able to  pick up a quick inch or so Monday morning.  The NAM shows a couple of hours of 355° or even due north wind. The 3km depicts a band overhead of your back yard for quite awhile.

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Lakeshore flooding aspect of this storm looks decently significant for Southern Lake Michigan. A recent comparable event would be March 6th, 2020, which had significant erosion, flooding, and damage in NW IN and far SW MI. I'll probably go check out the high waves and flooding, especially since there should be some decent LES as well.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Thanks. You should be able to  pick up a quick inch or so Monday morning.  The NAM shows a couple of hours of 355° or even due north wind. The 3km depicts a band overhead of your back yard for quite awhile.

Also, 850 mb winds have a slight eastward component, with the top of the mixed layer extending substantially above that level.  Probably will even get snow showers into the Illinois shore area for a while.

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1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said:

HRRRV4 has a pretty insane LES band all day Monday and getting even more juicy by sundown. 

You already know we're gonna be in that band intercepting and seeing the large waves. Should be a fun day, then I arrive home as the snow is ramping up in DET.

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