HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 18Z GFS is a smidge west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 From NWS Cleveland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Anybody got access to the 18z Euro that can post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Haven't seen a storm track this favorable that's straight out the Gulf in years and it's going to be a rainer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Anybody got access to the 18z Euro that can post it? I can't post it here on my end. Will tell you that it hammers northern Ohio from Toledo to Findlay eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 5 hours ago, Snownado said: I mean the Euro shows like 4" for Fort Wayne. Aren't you close to there ? To me anything more than 3" is significant. I'm about 25 miles southwest FWA. Over Allen County, the Euro is spitting out 3-5, west to east, while down here it is giving us a couple of inches. The GFS is even more putrid, barely spitting out an inch. I'm not complaining because any snow is good, just so close to more accumulation. I was hoping for a last minute correction west, but don't think it's going to happen. Looks like too a late phase and late fujiwhara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss48192 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Hi Everyone. Just founds this site today. How many of you were previously members on uswxforums? I was sad to see that site disappear but I'm happy to have found this one. I saw at least one username, michsnowfreak, that I recognize from uswxforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 From NWS Cleveland.I think this could bust hard. No reason to go under 6” in Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss48192 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I notice often unrealistic warm temperatures in those little urban center circles on forecast temp maps, especially GFS. I think they probably put something in their computer system to account for UHI, but it clearly overdoes things Hi michsnowfreak...a fellow Wyandotter here. Just found this site. My brother-in-law is signing up right now. He was weathernut on uswxforums. His name on here is Wxnut1970. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Indystorm said: I'll be rooting for you. I think I might be just a bit too far west to get much LES....maybe an inch here in Griffith unless we get a due n/s fetch down the lake for awhile. I know Hoosier is forecasting more and he has more experience in recent years in this area than I do. That certainly is a strong LES band setting up to dive into IN pretty far se. Latest delta T I've seen has been around 17. I like it more around 20. Good luck to those who catch the system snow to the east and get under the brunt of the LES band. Good way to start met winter. Thanks. You should be able to pick up a quick inch or so Monday morning. The NAM shows a couple of hours of 355° or even due north wind. The 3km depicts a band overhead of your back yard for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Some 18z Euro weenie hype for the board 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Looks like the 18Z Euro is slightly west I want to believe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 When dealing with potential phasing storms anything is possible. Holding out hope for 2in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Lakeshore flooding aspect of this storm looks decently significant for Southern Lake Michigan. A recent comparable event would be March 6th, 2020, which had significant erosion, flooding, and damage in NW IN and far SW MI. I'll probably go check out the high waves and flooding, especially since there should be some decent LES as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Thanks. You should be able to pick up a quick inch or so Monday morning. The NAM shows a couple of hours of 355° or even due north wind. The 3km depicts a band overhead of your back yard for quite awhile. Also, 850 mb winds have a slight eastward component, with the top of the mixed layer extending substantially above that level. Probably will even get snow showers into the Illinois shore area for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 00z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 hour ago, BigHoss48192 said: Hi michsnowfreak...a fellow Wyandotter here. Just found this site. My brother-in-law is signing up right now. He was weathernut on uswxforums. His name on here is Wxnut1970. Welcome aboard! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 0z NAM has an earlier changeover to snow here in NW Ohio by midday Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Not to complain but the 00z NAM takes the lake effect too far east now lolz (10:1 snowfall map attached) Edit: Taken verbatim of course. This run gets me back in the game for lake effect which is nice. Not seriously complaining. Hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRRR Wagons west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 HRRRV4 has a pretty insane LES band all day Monday and getting even more juicy by sundown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 00z NAM suggests the bleeding at least may have stopped, as it's inched towards an earlier phase and shifted westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said: HRRRV4 has a pretty insane LES band all day Monday and getting even more juicy by sundown. You already know we're gonna be in that band intercepting and seeing the large waves. Should be a fun day, then I arrive home as the snow is ramping up in DET. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 LOTs early details 0.00 looking strong. This system is a mess to watch. The flip flopping is awful. Moisture is there, but thats about all. Too bad there's not more forcing off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Boundary temp hell we all will be in (insert Yoda emoji) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Boundary temp hell we all will be in (insert Yoda emoji) Dynamic cooling pehaps, if heavy enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS is a smidge west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Chinook said: No matter what happens, I will try to post some 4- or 5-day loops of GFS 500mb plot, GFS surface/precip, NWS surface analysis, possibly GFS 700-400mb moisture, possibly IR satellite pics, possibly regional radar for Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 I know the reasons why, but it’s still crazy to see that the same storm system that could provide snow to portions of Alabama and Georgia could largely be a rain event for Ottawa and Montreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 0Z GFS is much further west, low is in Western pennsylvania compared to eastern pennsylvania 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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