the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17F at 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(24/39). Making it 27degs., or -8.0. Month to date is missing. Calculated is +0.9. Should be -1.8 by the 27th. All models have T near 60* for Christmas in the midst of otherwise decent lows. Looks wacky. 23*(67%RH) here at 6am. There is plenty of missing climate data for some reason this month. But NYC is at +0.5 on the xmacis2 climate site. A very Niño-like temperature departure this month with warmth along the Northern Tier and cold South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 -3 here currently in Campbell Hall, well below the forecasted low thanks to the snowpack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 The period of light snow that affects the nw-ne suburbs during the daylight hours Sunday might Trace in NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2.2 above zero. Snowpack and clear skies doing its thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Understanding NWS processes: While there are attempts to update all the local storm reports and public information statements with 'final' values, there are time constraints on what might in my words only not the NWS, meaningful work. If it's only an additional inch or so and will not make much difference to the analysis (accurate #s needed for NWS verification of their Watch, Warning, Advisory program), then I can see it is not done. Remember, there are hundreds of reports that need to be constantly filtered. (CoCoRAHS is considered official- my own report may not be included because I'm not CoCoRAHS). The climate program is always point specific accurate.- NWS controls. All the other reports are updated as time allows. We need to remember: Pandemic reduced in office staffing, that the forecast process is complex adjustments of digital elements that automatically make the words and interoffice and national guidance collaborated. That there are focal point duties -everyone has an area of responsibility- to maintain currency in the program and outreach to the partners-training the partners and vice versa- mine was the rip current and marine program for MT Holly 2010-18. This takes time to be fluent and then there is TRAINING of staff in your area of expertise. This akin to Research to Operations (RTO) training for frequent improvements in NWS processes and understandings (simulator requirement training). There is also training directed down from a national level, including do's and don'ts with regarding to security. So, it's not all about the numbers. NWS folks are paid well for their time and do the best they can to accomplish everything with multi customer satisfaction. Walt (my own interpretation of what we tried to accomplish during my days as a NWS meteorologist) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, wdrag said: Understanding NWS processes: While there are attempts to update all the local storm reports and public information statements with 'final' values, there are time constraints on what might in my words only not the NWS, meaningful work. If it's only an additional inch or so and will not make much difference to the analysis (accurate #s needed for NWS verification of their Watch, Warning, Advisory program), then I can see it is not done. Remember, there are hundreds of reports that need to be constantly filtered. (CoCoRAHS is considered official- my own report may not be included because I'm not CoCoRAHS). The climate program is always point specific accurate.- NWS controls. All the other reports are updated as time allows. We need to remember: Pandemic reduced in office staffing, that the forecast process is complex adjustments of digital elements that automatically make the words and interoffice and national guidance collaborated. That there are focal point duties -everyone has an area of responsibility- to maintain currency in the program and outreach to the partners-training the partners and vice versa- mine was the rip current and marine program for MT Holly 2010-18. This takes time to be fluent and then there is TRAINING of staff in your area of expertise. This akin to Research to Operations (RTO) training for frequent improvements in NWS processes and understandings (simulator requirement training). There is also training directed down from a national level, including do's and don'ts with regarding to security. So, it's not all about the numbers. NWS folks are paid well for their time and do the best they can to accomplish everything with multi customer satisfaction. Walt (my own interpretation of what we tried to accomplish during my days as a NWS meteorologist) IMO, the NWS is an invaluable resource. It is among the most effective and beneficial federal entities and provides proof to skeptics that government can perform at a consistently high level. I appreciate and applaud all that NWS does even with severe resource constraints in recent years. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny in much of the region. It will remain unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 31° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 33° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some rain and snow showers, along with moderating temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 7.8 in Muttontown & 12.3 in Syosset for the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 You can think of the warm storm track near Christmas as a sacrifice bunt. The ensembles are trying to use it as a means to shift the blocking from east of New England closer toward Greenland later in the month. We saw something like this with the warm storm track back around December 1st. So while the event around Christmas looks warm and wet, it could set the stage for a cold and snowy storm track as we approach and move into 2021. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 14 degrees snowpack and the holidays. The last few days have been epic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 This is why it’s so important to have a weak vortex. If we Didn’t have it (look like a ssw is coming as well) we would be in a typical Niña pattern. The weeklies and long range Models are just looking at the mjo and defaulting Niña 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Do not forget it took NOAA two years to get KWO 35 back on the air. Also, earlier intermod problems with CG frequencies forced KWO35 off the air except for emergency tone alerts. Yes, the graphics are tighter, more detailed and more colorful, but are they more accurate? Like a more detailed road map that even shows potholes------but shows them in the wrong places. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 These are two great tweets on how the record warm SSTs to our east are providing extra moisture to snowstorms. But on the flip side, we also get bigger rain and wind storms when the intense lows track to our west. Especially with systems that can go negative tilt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: IMO, the NWS is an invaluable resource. It is among the most effective and beneficial federal entities and provides proof to skeptics that government can perform at a consistently high level. I appreciate and applaud all that NWS does even with severe resource constraints in recent years. Agree w you Don et al!! This is your $8/pp tax payer dollar whatever, WELL spent. You're getting bang for the buck from a broadly talented -dedicated - high effort group, throughout the agency. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now 2010-2011 also had alot of events until February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Am on the cusp of a minor snow topic for 1-3" of snow NYC combined events Sunday and Tuesday. Will review at 3P. If RGEM/GGEM NOT on board then probably, no topic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That Jan 20 - March 2010 pattern was suppression city for our area if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: That Jan 20 - March 2010 pattern was suppression city for our area if I remember correctly. It depends on what area you area you are talking about The mid Atlantic got crushed by the early Feb 2010 storm. There were 3 storms that month. I got 40 inches that month. Remember the retrogading storm ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 that pattern is not 2010 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 23 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: The Grinch usually isn't denied, but this snowcover won't dissapear from a few 40 degree days in December sun. Our 6.7 inches of snow here (now 6" snowdepth) contains 1.61" of water. I melted the catch in the rain gage and it was only 0.64" so I took a core which melted to 1.61". 7.2" in South Commack Melted down to 1.34" in the Stratus 1.35" From the Core Sample 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, STORMANLI said: 7.2" in South Commack Melted down to 1.34" in the Stratus 1.35" From the Core Sample That’s impressive those two totals were that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Am on the cusp of a minor snow topic for 1-3" of snow NYC combined events Sunday and Tuesday. Will review at 3P. If RGEM/GGEM NOT on board then probably, no topic. 12Z NAM is mainly a New York State/Northern PA and points east of there event maybe Northwest NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: That’s impressive those two totals were that close. Yeah, surprised myself, as usually some disparity between the two. But then again it is 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Since nobody has been talking about the MJO lately here it is - mainly staying close to the COD which is a good thing in this pattern with all the other indicies mostly favorable for cold and snow in the east next few weeks http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Nice view of the snowpack http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Since nobody has been talking about the MJO lately here it is - mainly staying close to the COD which is a good thing in this pattern with all the other indicies mostly favorable for cold and snow in the east next few weeks http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Plenty of competing factors seem to be altering the typical La Niña forcing pattern for December. Notice how the VP anomalies are skewed further S and E than one would expect from a La Niña. The forcing near the DL is more of an El Niño look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 New GFS has 80+ gusts for NYC Wicked front From 50s and 60s to 20s on Christmas Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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