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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Something else interesting at the end of the 12z GFS run...been awhile since we have seen this. Something to monitor for down the road.

Ventrice mentioned this yesterday. I believe there is a proven lag time to impacts here in North America. Buy gas futures !  

 

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Based on my limited knowledge of this ...

Warmings have strong correlation with winter temperatures in Europe; not so much in the northeastern U.S..  We'll have to wait and see.  In any case, probably not much of a factor until mid-December

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An interesting h5 look overall, but really lacking LL cold air. Would need a bowling ball to roll just to our south with dynamical cooling to get it done. Too far north this run.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

An interesting h5 look overall, but really lacking LL cold air. Would need a bowling ball to roll just to our south with dynamical cooling to get it done. Too far north this run.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

I'm not buying the Euro racing Monday's closed low north through the blocking so fast . Just my .02

I think the 0z run makes more sense 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm not buying the Euro racing Monday's closed low north through the blocking so fast . Just my .02

Somewhat different evolution this run. Not sure I would call that an actual block. Plenty of movement/volatility in the longwave pattern over the next week or so. The early week system ends up generally in the 50-50 position this run, but would need a better track(and not a weak wave) for significant frozen east of the mountains.

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Pretty nice h5 look here at the end of the EPS run, but still no legit cold in our source region as depicted. If the pattern progresses as the GEFS is suggesting, there would be some improvement in that regard towards day 15. One major caveat is the MJO, which is forecast to move into the "warmer" phases, although at low amplitude. That will have to be carefully monitored. Although I think there will be a few chances over the next 10 days or so, it appears the highlands are clearly in the best position for an early season snow event at our latitude. If the GEFS is correct in continuing to amplify the western US ridge( developing -EPO) then the lowlands will be in a better position for wintry weather by mid month and beyond.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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Be nice to get a simple little overrunning event...couple inches..end of story....these deep plunging lows are like connecting your bat with a fast ball..great when it happens but happens rarely.  

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m ok with the 18z gfs for late week. Bet that somewhere in the ensembles will be a couple of eye openers.

There’s not enough cold air to work with imo. Not saying it couldn’t work, but it’s a longshot

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Not often you see 528dm south of the FL line.  Late run GFS is quite nippy in the East.  It will feel like straight winter in the not so distant future.  Yeehaw

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2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

There’s not enough cold air to work with imo. Not saying it couldn’t work, but it’s a longshot

Yes, seems to be the problem around these parts all too often!  And this early in the season, especially.  But still nice to see potential out there instead of wall-to-wall Pac puke with no end.  Positive signs...for now, at least!

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The reality looks like the next two weeks will see us get two big rain storms.  None of the ensembles show anything to shout about to indicate an even minor winter event East of the mountains at this time.  EURO overnight was horrible taking the second low into the Midwest.

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

The reality looks like the next two weeks will see us get two big rain storms.  None of the ensembles show anything to shout about to indicate an even minor winter event East of the mountains at this time.  EURO overnight was horrible taking the second low into the Midwest.

This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond. 

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Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient.  Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_80.png

The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA.

Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools.

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