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yoda

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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7 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Ji's JMA is a little later with the phase 

 

jma-all-namer-mslp-6780800.png

This reminds me of when I was a kid and watching the dearly departed Bill Matheson on ITV Edmonton, Alberta, describing the Mother Low sending off Little Lows.   What is pictured above is a Mother Low and a Little Low which has been dispatched to the Northwest Territories.

It was also important to keep your eye on an Idaho High.

(Apologies if this belongs more in Banter.)

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59 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem ftw

6-8 along i95 corridor :lol:

But... the heaviest snowfall is overnight Thursday and its 9 days away... so maybe ;)

gem_asnow24_neus_36.png

 

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00z EURO was better... but still too late and inland for most of us -- re Dec 5 threat.  At 216 SLP is down by the AL/GA/FL border trifecta at 1003mb... at 240 its 981mb SLP is right near PHL.  Makes me think EPS should have a few snowy solutions tonight

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Though... Day 8-10 looks quite serviceable to me looking up top.  Probably wrong... but looks like a nice PNA ridge where we want it by Day 10 with high heights in Greenland and looks like some decent blocking?  Or am I confusing things?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Though... Day 8-10 looks quite serviceable to me looking up top.  Probably wrong... but looks like a nice PNA ridge where we want it by Day 10 with high heights in Greenland and looks like some decent blocking?  Or am I confusing things?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

I agree. This is the first legit potential event if it holds for a few days. The pattern is conducive. Nice PNA. Blocking isn’t amazing but it’s there, a nice Pre storm ULL...., issue has to do with timing and placement as always with how that 2nd shortwave kind of swings under the ULL and where that ULL sets up. It could go to crap if it takes too long. Then you’d have another over phased Great Lakes low, but as it stands this might be our first track. 

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Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the  EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

 

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Eps remains east of the op for the Monday storm . I counted about 8 members that give some white stuff for mostly western burbs.  A long shot but the door is still cracked . After that one blows through hopefully the real fun begins . I'll be tracking :popcorn:

YEA Yoda ...Euro Dec 5th snow verbatim FTW

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54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the  EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

 

Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent.  I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly?  
 

 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent.  I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly?  
 

 

The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol

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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol

Ha. 
 

We’ve got a nice pattern the first 10-14 days of December and already have a window or two picked out. That’s really good for December! Especially in a mod/strong Nina! 

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A lot going for early December , especially towards the second week of December. Including a possible  PV displacement, PV elongation,  and the effect of a Siberian warming and the 7 day lag to NA, especially in the East. The displacement event if it were to occur could have implications for later in the month, in a way echoing Matt's thoughts from the post above.   

 

Image

 

 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha. 
 

We’ve got a nice pattern the first 10-14 days of December and already have a window or two picked out. That’s really good for December! Especially in a mod/strong Nina! 

So my question is...what do things have to look like to not make the snow miss? Lol Sounds like a dumb question, but what I'm saying is...is there anyway to tell in the LR if things look good enough that storms won't miss just northeast of here ala the bomb cyclone or boxing day 2010. When I think of ninas, I assume north or late developing is always an additional battle to fight...To prevent such, do we need even more blocking up top than we would during neutral/nino?

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28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So my question is...what do things have to look like to not make the snow miss? Lol Sounds like a dumb question, but what I'm saying is...is there anyway to tell in the LR if things look good enough that storms won't miss just northeast of here ala the bomb cyclone or boxing day 2010. When I think of ninas, I assume north or late developing is always an additional battle to fight...To prevent such, do we need even more blocking up top than we would during neutral/nino?

It is impossible to resolve the minor details associated with how a specific storm will evolve and progress at this range. All we can do is identify the major components of the pattern and determine that the potential is there. It can be the most favorable pattern ever seen on paper and still produce no snow. The advertised h5 pattern is much more of a Nino look btw.

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56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So my question is...what do things have to look like to not make the snow miss? Lol Sounds like a dumb question, but what I'm saying is...is there anyway to tell in the LR if things look good enough that storms won't miss just northeast of here ala the bomb cyclone or boxing day 2010. When I think of ninas, I assume north or late developing is always an additional battle to fight...To prevent such, do we need even more blocking up top than we would during neutral/nino?

The advertised pattern clearly supports coastal storms or storms passing south of us in general. Doesn’t mean every storm will do that, but pattern is supportive of that. Question is going to be whether the air mass ahead of any individual storm is conducive to snow. You can see this with the Dec 4-5 window. We need the Nov 30/Dec 1 storm to give us a fresh cold air mass and then have the next storm move into it at the right time before it rots. We don’t need a *ton* of help for a suitable airmass in early December, but we need some. A climo air mass doesn’t cut it usually. 

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8 hours ago, yoda said:

00z EURO was better... but still too late and inland for most of us -- re Dec 5 threat.  At 216 SLP is down by the AL/GA/FL border trifecta at 1003mb... at 240 its 981mb SLP is right near PHL.  Makes me think EPS should have a few snowy solutions tonight

Did that Low give us any snow?  It looked promising on TTs

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I am going to post this here instead of digital snow.. I know it is the 240 hour euro .. but it is a good pattern.. and we need a distraction..

 

 

fantasyLand.png

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Overnight euro and new parallel gfs were pretty similar. Paste bomb for mountains and far western burbs. 
 

So far I don’t like the 12z gfs at all. Although that 500mb low pass for the Dec 1 storm looks fairly amazing in isolation. 

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Overnight euro and new parallel gfs were pretty similar. Paste bomb for mountains and far western burbs. 
 

So far I don’t like the 12z gfs at all. Although that 500mb low pass for the Dec 1 storm looks fairly amazing in isolation. 

Ooohh...12z ggem is so close to the perfect scenario. Just brings the second storm a bit too soon so it’s a cold rain, but the track is near perfect. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Ooohh...12z ggem is so close to the perfect scenario. Just brings the second storm a bit too soon so it’s a cold rain, but the track is near perfect. 

maybe first flakes?  that would be a huge win for my crap location.  RA/SN mix even

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16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

maybe first flakes?  that would be a huge win for my crap location.  RA/SN mix even

Verbatim probably not outside the highlands. But just like a 12-24 hr delay probably is cash money for I-95.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Verbatim probably not outside the highlands. But just like a 12-24 hr delay probably is cash money for I-95.

Que up the it’s happening gif

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