December 2020 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with you, TBH....I just made a blog post yesterday about how I expected a parade of moderate systems. I'm going to give this through the weekend to adjust expectations larger.

...I also just noticed a subtle backing off of the GEFs PNA decline ...and in fact, it tries to swell now in concerted fashion among the members later next week.. It could be that we are seeing an over correction in the PNA go back a bit more positive ... 

That's code for gee - can we maybe get a western ridge to pop just a little more as that thing gets ejected?  

Hey, what's that analog site - I'm wondering if 2003's on the list ...certainly looks on the surface like it should be ( pun intended ) 

[Henry's Weather]

Man i miss the days when storms were all surprises so a 6-10 inch deal wasn't "disappointing"

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Man i miss the days when storms were all surprises so a 6-10 inch deal wasn't "disappointing"

I'll take it after the last two winters. Other than March 2019, meh. I know early Dec 19 was big inland.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...I also just noticed a subtle backing off of the GEFs PNA decline ...and in fact, it tries to swell now in concerted fashion among the members later next week.. It could be that we are seeing an over correction in the PNA go back a bit more positive ... 

That's code for gee - can we maybe get a western ridge to pop just a little more as that thing gets ejected?  

Hey, what's that analog site - I'm wondering if 2003's on the list ...certainly looks on the surface like it should be ( pun intended ) 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2020121012

 

12/16/07 is the top analog at the moment....which makes sense. This one really looks like that storm except the NAO is negative (which the analog table can't see since it only goes on a smaller domain) so this one would likely end up getting more resistance to hugging the coast/inland running than that one did.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Man i miss the days when storms were all surprises so a 6-10 inch deal wasn't "disappointing"

We've talked about this 'conditioning' aspect many times in the past but yeah...  Those of us that remember the scorn and spurn 1980s ... a 6-10" was a juggernaut rarity..  We had more than a few storms that decade that were billed as ... " the biggest event since 1978' " and well, I guess 10.4" was in fact the biggest event since 1978 until 1992 or thereabouts... 

Oh right - yeah..... I guess Cape Cod got clipped by a couple of whitecanes but ... don't get me started on 1987's debacle January that year - the famed 4th period blizzard warning that verified partly sunny in 6 F cold while the Cape was denuded of all life... 

Anyway, those that came into sentience since that decade which ..probably is a considerable population of this type of social mediaspheric engagement frankly .. they don't realize this handing foot deep snow events out like entitled Pez dispensing ease is unique to this ... auh... maybe it's a climate change thing - I dunno. But it's not the way anyone older than maybe 33 thinks as normal - 

If you're a 24 year old you only have donut stuffing machine impressions with just a few bad winters... And that's what's interesting about the winters in the since 2000 era:  two of the worst winters I ever recall happened since 2000, ...in an era where I've 300 % more snow than I remember spanning decades prior - 

[dryslot]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You know SNE will get crushed and we’ll get 2” of wind blown salt and sugar. 

You knew where i was going with that, We've seen this setup before.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...I also just noticed a subtle backing off of the GEFs PNA decline ...and in fact, it tries to swell now in concerted fashion among the members later next week.. It could be that we are seeing an over correction in the PNA go back a bit more positive ... 

That's code for gee - can we maybe get a western ridge to pop just a little more as that thing gets ejected?  

Hey, what's that analog site - I'm wondering if 2003's on the list ...certainly looks on the surface like it should be ( pun intended ) 

The absence of a PNA ridge and slow moving NE us impact are not mutually exclusive, though....granted the block was epic, but look at Feb 1969.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've talked about this 'conditioning' aspect many times in the past but yeah...  Those of us that remember the scorn and spurn 1980s ... a 6-10" was a juggernaut..  We had more than a few storms that decade that were billed as ... " the biggest event since 1978' " and well, I guess 10.4" was in fact the biggest event since 1978 until 1992 or thereabouts... 

Oh right - yeah..... I guess Cape Cod got clipped by a couple of whitecanes but ... don't get me started on 1987's debacle January that year - the famed 4th period blizzard warning that verified partly sunny in 6 F cold while the Cape was denuded of all life... 

Anyway, those that came into sentience since that decade which ..probably is a considerable population of this type of social mediaspheric engagement frankly .. they don't realize this handing foot deep snow event out like Pez dispensing is unique to this ... auh... maybe it's a climate change thing - I dunno. But it's not the way anyone older than maybe 33 thinks as normal - 

If you're a 24 year old you only have donut stuffing machine with just a few bad winters... And that's what's interesting about the wind 2000 era:  two of the worst winters I recall happened since 2000, ...in an era where I've 300 % more snow than I remember spanning decades prior - 

My formative winters were from 2008 to 2011, so not only am I young, I'm spoiled

[dryslot]

38 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Euro looks better for my house in MD than Randolph right now. LOL

You can bet that won’t happen. 

Don't sell yourself short lol.

[IowaStorm05]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've talked about this 'conditioning' aspect many times in the past but yeah...  Those of us that remember the scorn and spurn 1980s ... a 6-10" was a juggernaut..  We had more than a few storms that decade that were billed as ... " the biggest event since 1978' " and well, I guess 10.4" was in fact the biggest event since 1978 until 1992 or thereabouts... 

Oh right - yeah..... I guess Cape Cod got clipped by a couple of whitecanes but ... don't get me started on 1987's debacle January that year - the famed 4th period blizzard warning that verified partly sunny in 6 F cold while the Cape was denuded of all life... 

Anyway, those that came into sentience since that decade which ..probably is a considerable population of this type of social mediaspheric engagement frankly .. they don't realize this handing foot deep snow event out like Pez dispensing is unique to this ... auh... maybe it's a climate change thing - I dunno. But it's not the way anyone older than maybe 33 thinks as normal - 

If you're a 24 year old you only have donut stuffing machine with just a few bad winters... And that's what's interesting about the wind 2000 era:  two of the worst winters I recall happened since 2000, ...in an era where I've 300 % more snow than I remember spanning decades prior - 

I feel like too many people forgot about the great blizzard of 2005. That’s the one storm I know of that competes with the blizzard of ‘78. I’m 36 years old; it’s the biggest storm of my entire life. I was a “dandy” 20 year old, I spent it with lots of friends and we had one of those gallon jugs of table wine for it!
I was in Providence, and we got roughly 3 feet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I feel like too many people forgot about the great blizzard of 2005. That’s the one storm I know of that competes with the blizzard of ‘78. 
I was in Providence, and we got roughly 3 feet. 

I didn't forget it ... ha - had some nasty meso neggie bands that kept snow totals down...and disproportionately awarded SE zones with 40" or something...  

I was in Middlesex midriff region ...Acton, and we got 9" I think so pedestrian..   I was thinking that storm fails to peer with the big dawgs because it did that - 

But it's subjective of course - 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is basically 12/16/07 with an NAO.

 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2020121012

 

12/16/07 is the top analog at the moment....which makes sense. This one really looks like that storm except the NAO is negative (which the analog table can't see since it only goes on a smaller domain) so this one would likely end up getting more resistance to hugging the coast/inland running than that one did.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The absence of a PNA ridge and slow moving NE us impact are not mutually exclusive, though....granted the block was epic, but look at Feb 1969.

Slowness ??   ...who's talking about slowness....  Oh see why you think that - no, I 'm not concerned with the speed of the storm motion itself... I'm concerned with the synoptic speed between Japan and England...hahaha... seriously though - it's getting the damn event to set up so ideally base on what the models are doing with a fast, inherently non-deterministic flow regime... 

Two different things - 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I didn't forget it ... ha - had some nasty meso neggie bands that kept snow totals down...and disproportionately awarded SE zones with 40" or something...  

I was in Middlesex midriff region ...Acton, and we got 9" I think so pedestrian..   I was thinking that storm fails to peer with the big dawgs because it did that - 

But it's subjective of course - 

Jesus, really? I had 25" in Wilmington...22" on the level.

I am shocked you did that poorly only a few miles west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Slowness ??   ...who's talking about slowness....  Oh see why you think that - no, I 'm not concerned with the speed of the storm motion itself... I'm concerned with the synoptic speed between Japan and England...hahaha... seriously though - it's getting the damn event to set up so ideally base on what the models are doing with a fast, inherently non-deterministic flow regime... 

Two different things - 

Gotcha...more of just skepticism that they are pinning this down correctly at such a large lead time.

[Typhoon Tip]

As far as speed of a storm itself - non issue for me... 

Of the many jaw dropping snow events I remember, two happened inside of 6 hours...and both were just shy of 20 " ...  1997, 2005... Both put down a 7.5 in one hour !

Big choking deposition rates can happen with extreme rapidity given the right circumstances - 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, really? I had 25" in Wilmington...22" on the level.

I am shocked you did that poorly only a few miles west.

I think Will or someone has a snow chart they can throw out ??

 

Make me a liar I won't mind..But I do recall getting dissed by that sucker ... I think there was a meso band that was like Willamantic CT to Acton to ASH ...that was noticeably screwed

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As far as speed of a storm itself - non issue for me... 

Of the many jaw dropping snow events I remember, two happened inside of 6 hours...and both were just shy of 20 " ...  1997, 2005... Both put down a 7.5 in one hour !

Big choking deposition rates can happen with extreme rapidity given the right circumstances - 

Oh, agreed. Its not a concern for snowfall. Frankly, if you need 24 hours to drop over a foot of snow, then you have some paltry dynamics.

[78Blizzard]

19 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I feel like too many people forgot about the great blizzard of 2005. That’s the one storm I know of that competes with the blizzard of ‘78. I’m 36 years old; it’s the biggest storm of my entire life. 
I was in Providence, and we got roughly 3 feet. 

That 2005 was a great storm.  But N RI had an area that received over 50" in the blizzard of '78.  I was around for that one living in Randolph, MA at the time.  We had close to 4' there, despite what the KU books say.  Opening the garage door yielded nothing but snow from top to bottom. 

[PhineasC]

46 minutes ago, alex said:

It happens! If it were averaged out over a season, no - but for an individual storm, why not?

MD has been cursed for snow lately. I assume it has to give at some point, but odds say the storm shifts far enough north to give Randolph more than central MD. It won’t take much for my house down there to be 34 degree rain for the duration. An “tic” or two would do it. 

[Ericjcrash]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, agreed. Its not a concern for snowfall. Frankly, if you need 24 hours to drop over a foot of snow, then you have some paltry dynamics.

I agree. I'd much rather a quick hitting 6 hour 12" storm than a drawn out 24 hour 12" storm.

[IowaStorm05]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

MD has been cursed for snow lately. I assume it has to give at some point, but odds say the storm shifts far enough north to give Randolph more than central MD. It won’t take much for my house down there to be 34 degree rain for the duration. An “tic” or two would do it. 

I feel like, and have seen some climate related articles and maps, that we are far enough in the bag of global warming that it has really started showing results in places like coastal mid Atlantic and southern New England over the last decade or two, but especially recently.

one report I saw in recent years indicated the coastal plains have been more strongly affected by global warming than interior or continental locations, if you believe in that. I’m no expert but I am just reporting my observation 

What’s behind it or where it’s headed in terms of centuries or long term global climate is not my forte, but I’m talkin’ in terms of current decade type trends at the very least

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I agree. I'd much rather a quick hitting 6 hour 12" storm than a drawn out 24 hour 12" storm.

Or 40 hours in the case of Thanksgiving weekend last year. Granted mixing issues meant it was never snow for more than maybe ~8 hours at a time 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

MD has been cursed for snow lately. I assume it has to give at some point, but odds say the storm shifts far enough north to give Randolph more than central MD. It won’t take much for my house down there to be 34 degree rain for the duration. An “tic” or two would do it. 

This is a miller B setup, so you'd sell big snows for MD, even with the -NAO. Doesn't mean it can't happen (see 2/9/10), but it takes some pretty anomalous features to slam that far south with a Miller B and whiff your NH area.

[TheBudMan]

 

When do we get Zeus to start a thread for good juju ???

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 

When do we get Zeus to start a thread for good juju ???

Usually the juju turns out not good when starting a thread 6 days out.

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 

When do we get Zeus to start a thread for good juju ???

You have to say his name three times to summon him. But it's a bit early for that. 

[Whineminster]

Enough on the storms of yore. Let's talk about the ZR this weekend.

[Zeus]

10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You have to say his name three times to summon him. But it's a bit early for that. 

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, Zeus said:

You don’t want HIS help.  I STRONGLY suggest that YOU generate the HECS yourself!