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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I agree. The tendency with these PNA ridge out west the last couple of years has been for them to roll right over into the Ohio Valley and be short-lived. Guidance has this sticking around a little longer it would appear, somewhat anchored buy a slower pacific flow and higher heights in north atlantic.

The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so.

Yes, if you get that Aleutian low far enough west to dive that trough into Hawaii you get the responding ridge into W. Canada. Hook that up with some relatively higher heights in the NAtl. and you could be in business.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is something right out of the modoki el nino December playbook.

Crazy. It only took two years of waiting. What is causing this look? Warm pool off the west coast? Mjo in cod? 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is something right out of the modoki el nino December playbook.

EPS looks now exactly as I thought it would days 10 to 15. Blow the mice out

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ha ha... no kidding. wow -

we stated our case/logic yesterday ...summarily, the ensuing run cycles actually supported those hypothesis rather nicely ...

But then what happens at 12z ?    -

It's like your family member or friend is in the 12th step of rehab and not hearing from them so you go to their house to find them passed out on the floor in a bender - right back there. 

i don't know what to make of that...  it really doesn't fit that well with the persistence, but ... you know - anomalies relative to anomalies, that's usually where the devil lurks in this business.  it's like a Russian nesting doll of anomaly ... The progressive anomaly doll cracks open and out pops an backward anomaly hiccup, just long enough for that thing to happen... then, jumps back inside the other doll after everyone's fun's been ruined  lol

i dunno ... fwiw, all players are over the Pacific.   The intermediate/polar stream wave mechanics won't even relay over land until 4 days from 12z this morning...  the vestigial southern stream low doesn't come in until tomorrow....   Meanwhile, the whole ordeal from D6 -10 is during a mode change of the PNA...?  There's enough objective uncertainty there not to be sold on this solution -

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy. It only took two years of waiting. What is causing this look? Warm pool off the west coast? Mjo in cod? 

Who knows...good question. Something similar happened in the strong La Nina of 1975-1976. Might be a good couple case studies some day.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Who knows...good question. Something similar happened in the strong La Nina of 1975-1976. Might be a good couple case studies some day.

Yeah. Definitely.  Ventrice thinks it might be from a Siberian ssw? 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nearing the time to fire up the model subscriptions and post-outlook blog.

I just bought stormvista

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How are their graphics? I hate the color scheme...only thing that lures me is the quick data reception.

Not bad

20 bucks a month

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting...I wonder if that protracts things into a serviceable January, as well.

If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How are their graphics? I hate the color scheme...only thing that lures me is the quick data reception.

I usually do wxbell, which has great graphics, and Eurowx....which the best snowmaps and allows me to draw maps.

SV is my go too, I'm use to there graphics, I have Weather Models as well as my secondary as well as now Pivotal, They ea have positives.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SV is my go too, I'm use to there graphics, I have Weather Models as well as my secondary as well as now Pivotal, They ea have positives.

Same

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful.

Jan 2009 redux? Albeit the AO was slightly positive that month. 

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10 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'd say that's a fair assessment. Again, what bothers me is that Damage In Tolland sees nothing but a zonal pattern with no chances of snow or cold through all of December. That's a little ( lot ) extreme if you all me.

First and last lesson:  Whatever you do...never ever listen to anything DIT says!  It’s all a sham and phishing expedition...nothing more.  
 

And BTW..he’s no MET. 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful.

May go down in flames but all in on 10-11

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