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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Man we really need a system to track lol

almost time for that outside shot at february severe.


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8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Man we really need a system to track lol

Or trim some fat, either works.

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

Ummm......duh? 

I think we've drifted into banter. Just saying some people here think winter is supposed to be like the arctic and assume our summers are also like the Deep South lol. 

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41 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

No, you seem to be arguing it should be 75 and sunny every day in April and that's nonsensical. 

No but I would love a week of 70+ in April every once and a while. The last 3 April combined have had 7 total and 0 80s.

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28 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

even more off-topic, but what is the difference between "pro forecaster" and "meteorologist" on here? also, how do you get this recognition? 

Basically, pro forecaster is someone who has a forecasting job but lacks a met degree.  Have to go through the admins to get either one.

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I think we should definitely expand the options for recognition titles. For example a growing number us could benefit from a "CLOWN" tag. 

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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I think we should definitely expand the options for recognition titles. For example a growing number us could benefit from a "CLOWN" tag. 

There is a weenie tag out there, which no one has ever gotten in this subforum, but there is always time to change that.

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46 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is a weenie tag out there, which no one has ever gotten in this subforum, but there is always time to change that.

We haven't been able to change member groups for years.

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16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Who is writing off next month?

Me, already bailing back home on the 9th. Would be earlier but I am going on a roadtrip to Utah. I was getting excited watching the trends about a week ago, hopeful on the SSW but I think I know how the winter is going to pan out based on the crap we have been dealt last few years. Warm till Mid feb, a few storms. Then the snow melts with subfreezing highs with due to the sun angle in mid-late feb.

Then cold and snowy March to the beginning of May.

This is not a forecast, it is sure to happen because it seems to happen every year now :thumbsdown:


On a different note, I took a trip to northern michigan last weekend (up near grayling) and not even their small creeks had any ice on them. Also, they only had 6-8" OTG. Talk a bout crap.

Seems like you can write off December and most of Jan for most of the last 15 years and our only month that was any good has been February. Seems like we are losing that now.

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20 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Me, already bailing back home on the 9th. Would be earlier but I am going on a roadtrip to Utah. I was getting excited watching the trends about a week ago, hopeful on the SSW but I think I know how the winter is going to pan out based on the crap we have been dealt last few years. Warm till Mid feb, a few storms. Then the snow melts with subfreezing highs with due to the sun angle in mid-late feb.

Then cold and snowy March to the beginning of May.

This is not a forecast, it is sure to happen because it seems to happen every year now :thumbsdown:


On a different note, I took a trip to northern michigan last weekend (up near grayling) and not even their small creeks had any ice on them. Also, they only had 6-8" OTG. Talk a bout crap.

Seems like you can write off December and most of Jan for most of the last 15 years and our only month that was any good has been February. Seems like we are losing that now.

Thanks to "Modoki" everything in this warm earth era. This is a big reason why the GL's have warmed the most of any N Lat region in the CONUS. Seems whether it's a Modoki Nino or Modoki Nina, we get screwed the worst. Pretty soon, we'll be reading about "Modoki Neutral ENSO state". Just you watch. Snowmobile track racing is on life-support in our state. They actually race on ice and temps just refuse to cooperate. Ice sculpture events during "winter-fest" = forget it! Record Ice fishing rescues -> happening!

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7 hours ago, Stebo said:

No but I would love a week of 70+ in April every once and a while. The last 3 April combined have had 7 total and 0 80s.

My ideal April day is 74/68 with a high risk of severe thunderstorms. When has that happened in this region in the last 20 years?

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46 minutes ago, Baum said:

operational runs last night were a nightmare scenario if your selling pattern change. oof.

Just burn it all down and torch it to oblivion. This might be the earliest I've found myself sick of winter.

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29 minutes ago, mimillman said:

idk guys...Sunday - Tuesday looks pretty good to me?

it looks on the table...

liking the potential duration with multiple waves and a quasi stationary baroclinic zone

def not a widespread or spread the wealth setup, hope we can luck out for once and find our way into the fgen banding for once

it's nice to have a period to watch after what feels like 20 days of chasing dust mid winter

 

 

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11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

it looks on the table...

liking the potential duration with multiple waves and a quasi stationary baroclinic zone

def not a widespread or spread the wealth setup, hope we can luck out for once and find our way into the fgen banding for once

it's nice to have a period to watch after what feels like 20 days of chasing dust mid winter

 

 

There will be a system. There will be mixing issues. 

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Some solid hits on the Euro ensembles and looks like many of the members are actually further north, so if you believe the -AO/-NAO argument than chances are those come south over the next week? Would rather them be north at this point in time given the pattern than south.

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46 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Some solid hits on the Euro ensembles and looks like many of the members are actually further north, so if you believe the -AO/-NAO argument than chances are those come south over the next week? Would rather them be north at this point in time given the pattern than south.

Will be entering Ukie territory soon. Its performance seems better than most this winter

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Will be entering Ukie territory soon. Its performance seems better than most this winter

It’s probably a close 2nd to the GEM.

This multiple wave period is still 5-9 days out though.


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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


It’s probably a close 2nd to the GEM.

This multiple wave period is still 5-9 days out though.


 

it's a nice change of pace not to be chasing a well timed phase to deliver defo snows from a marginal airmass

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7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Thanks to "Modoki" everything in this warm earth era. This is a big reason why the GL's have warmed the most of any N Lat region in the CONUS. Seems whether it's a Modoki Nino or Modoki Nina, we get screwed the worst. Pretty soon, we'll be reading about "Modoki Neutral ENSO state". Just you watch. Snowmobile track racing is on life-support in our state. They actually race on ice and temps just refuse to cooperate. Ice sculpture events during "winter-fest" = forget it! Record Ice fishing rescues -> happening!

This is over reaction after a few mild winters. Winters in Detroit have barely warmed the last 100 years. Yea they've warmed since the 70s...just like in the 70s one could definitely say winters are getting colder because they were. Long term....summers are warming more noticeably in the Lakes than winters. 

 

7 hours ago, LansingWeather said:

Me, already bailing back home on the 9th. Would be earlier but I am going on a roadtrip to Utah. I was getting excited watching the trends about a week ago, hopeful on the SSW but I think I know how the winter is going to pan out based on the crap we have been dealt last few years. Warm till Mid feb, a few storms. Then the snow melts with subfreezing highs with due to the sun angle in mid-late feb.

Then cold and snowy March to the beginning of May.

This is not a forecast, it is sure to happen because it seems to happen every year now :thumbsdown:


On a different note, I took a trip to northern michigan last weekend (up near grayling) and not even their small creeks had any ice on them. Also, they only had 6-8" OTG. Talk a bout crap.

Seems like you can write off December and most of Jan for most of the last 15 years and our only month that was any good has been February. Seems like we are losing that now.

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

 

Look at winter temp trends the past 100 years. Looks a lot different when you don't use the 1970s as baseline.

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20210119_102407.jpg

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20210119_102349.jpg

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7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is over reaction after a few mild winters. Winters in Detroit have barely warmed the last 100 years. Yea they've warmed since the 70s...just like in the 70s one could definitely say winters are getting colder because they were. Long term....summers are warming more noticeably in the Lakes than winters. 

 

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

Sure there's been a few decent storms in december and january but the majority of D and J's have been uneventful. Of course its all relative as you consider 2 inches on the ground for 3 plus weeks exciting. Gonna be almost 4 weeks of nothingness, assuming something delivers in the  jan 26-30 timeframe. Sunny the next 7 days and close to 80 down here in florida. I picked a good winter to skip.

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